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Run opportunistic income strat at @newriverinvest , CFA, and Chicago sports fan. Credit, MBS, & structured products. david at newriverinvestments dot com

779 Following   27,033 Followers   58,322 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/25/10

@jordanwycoff I'm just glad I'm not in that space anymore! Bet you are too haha @CranstonCapital @mark_dow some kind of special sauce @sean_sears6 then no SaleEnergy and financials are contributing +18 handles to the SPX today. The rest getting killed.
Retweeted by David Schawel @mark_dow ok, that was good @DavidSchawel we've heard feedback to that effect from LIHTC investors
Retweeted by David Schawel @MylesUdland anytime I see beige I'm tempted @MylesUdland you rang? holdings of tax exempt munis are up well over 2x since the crisisAlso good point from @ArchMcClure this would impact bank demand for tax exempt munis which are bought on a TEY basis @RuthlessGravity interesting- when I did them it was more for the tax rate instead of CRA credit but agree it could factor in tooIf corp tax rates go dow to 15% I'm wondering if the tax credit space (LIHTC, solar, etc) would see significantly lower demandWhy has $RLGY been such a disaster?"scampers" @17thStCap I outsource my letters to @JacobWolinsky @17thStCap wrong- we care about Trump hot takes @M_C_Klein Fair pointNever mind the fact he left in 2002Find it humorous how many people get blamed for toxic MBS bonds simply because they worked for an investment bank @NoonSixCap @jay_21_ more I think about it I think the guy walks around spraying sugar water so more ants come @NoonSixCap @jay_21_ gahhh, I pay those idiots so much each year should just do it myself @mark_dow that's true @volatilitysmile @mark_dow not trying to be a big bold bond bear, merely think balance of risks have changed now & imp to acknowledge @mark_dow it's relevant. Massive debt funded spending increase would change expectations & impact demand. Attribute it to what you wish. @austinklee more calls less tweets! @mark_dow taken together I believe they're bearish, never said anything about historically30s only 3% and we have a number of potentially bearish catalysts (increased supply, maturity extension, higher inflation) #MakeCurvesSteep3.5 trillion in income, a few hundred trillion in assets, high credit rating... HOW WILL WE MANAGE????
Retweeted by David SchawelMnuchin: "We're going to look at potentially extending the maturity of the debt."
Retweeted by David SchawelI don't follow tbh @BrianBilek_ window open for Sale to be dealt there now
A bank sweeping the cash of a defaulting company is banking 101. a sad story @NoVaDuf duh! He's awesome @ml8_ml8 that's all I'm getting at. I'm not a trump guy but want qualified, competent people to serve @jvposter that's literally what the Army does, Jamie. @ml8_ml8 "such a candidate"? Bc he worked at GS 15y ago? As @NickTimiraos said, little is actually known about his policy. @jvposter @ml8_ml8 possibly, but that's an irrelevant & unknowable hypothetical @ml8_ml8 media thought they were holding him accountable all campaign and were merely pawns the whole timeMedia now more interested in the wealth of an appointment and/or if they can were loyal to Trump rather than if they're qualified. @occross think you're right! @sjmnc agree! @LongShortTrader ugh you beat me to it @ReformedBroker this is twitter - everyone always objects to everything @quantian1 @Nonrelatedsense would just mean a lower FDIC assessment paid by banks - banks are the ones subsidizing it @SconnieTrader bring your sterling sharpe and Donald driver posters for PK to autograph Pulisic's spectacular rise @pearkes @M_C_Klein I'm largely in that camp, but try not to be overconfident in the rage of outcomes I think are possible @based_ball Good point. Also I'd say given Rodon, Fulmer, Burdi, Hansen, etc hard time seeing a pitching focused return vs position players @M_C_Klein true that! @DavidSchawel also a lot of those predictions are from people who have been shorting bonds for years
Retweeted by David Schawel @sspencer_smb Druck todayI have a hard time seeing that big of a move, particularly if balance sheet size (stock effect) stays constantLots of predictions emerging for the 10y to rise 300+bps. Is fiscal signaling + rising inflation enough to get there in this growth env? @based_ball i.e. If you probability weighted the projected war distribution of those players it prob wouldn't equal Sale's next 3yrs @based_ball Nice article. I still don't think those are steep prices to pay. In most you need everything to go right to equal Sale's value @TheStalwart @business so the likelihood of upside surprises becomes more difficult?I sincerely hope Trump picks a Goldman alum for Treasury. The presumption that financial experience is disqualifying is childishly dumb
Retweeted by David SchawelThough we disagree on many issues, I'm sure, I've worked with @ElaineChao on the board of the @HarvardIOP & respect her greatly.
Retweeted by David Schawel @IvanTheK your location is finally outed @CramersShirt @SportsTVRatings not quite, Sunday night ratings were way down from last year. Seems like a mixed bag overall @carlquintanilla @darrenrovell @TOURMISS @SportQuake can't say I ever foresaw this picture @georgepearkes those damn toddlers~$15 per person over the age of 18 thinks my recent humidifier purchase was merely the inaugural move in a newfound hobby of humidifier collecting.
Retweeted by David Schawel @TheStalwart or better yet, that's where twitter should be selling ad space @tracyalloway those circleback deals - woof @TheStalwart there must be an advertising company that tries to get first reply on celebrity accounts for the views
WSJ taking down Theranos after Murdoch invested $100m in the company is a big win for journalism integrity.
Retweeted by David SchawelNFL TV ratings continue to struggle @BradBiggs think the Bears will claim Joe Callahan after Cleveland released him?New on @OpenSecretsDC: All of Trump's picks for @Interior—which is over natural resources—mean oil & gas win bigly
Retweeted by David Schawel @TheStalwart Rajan appears to be against it @conorsen @IvanTheK No Petraeus? @ReformedBroker @IvanTheK @conorsen who's your favorite? @ReformedBroker picture cut off after Old Style and I thought Investors sue Theranos and its founder Elizabeth Holmes, alleging fraud - filing
Retweeted by David Schawel