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Run opportunistic income strat at @newriverinvest , CFA, and Chicago sports fan. Credit, MBS, & structured products. david at newriverinvestments dot com

795 Following   27,636 Followers   59,471 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/25/10

@RussianBear lol, you ass @JakeRaden just messing around! @JakeRaden I'm just amazed you agree with something I said :) @JakeRaden was just spitballing a number, but more about idea. Wouldn't solve the issue but could help. @JoshNorris @AdamHoge @CSNInTheLoop @Hub_Arkush doesn't matter either way, they're not scoutsCould Trump propose "Make retirement great again". Match 1:1 into govt run IRA (of ETFs) up to $500 yr for hhlds making under $x of AGI? @barnejek point was to articulate what the bet represents in terms of curve moves @barnejek this assumes a 5y horizon. Let me guess, you choose rolling over a 1y 5x? @conorsen end of games are too long thoughWould you rather own a 2y today at 1.2% then a 3y after the 2y, or a 5y today at 1.91%? 3y yields need to rise ~93bps to break even @aymeric70 too many timeouts at the end @sspencer_smb I think they're mainly talking about end of games (maybe less timeouts?)"NBA looking to speed up games due to short Millennial attention spans" <---actual headline @TheStalwart "certainty" is also a strange word to use w/r/t markets, especially since it's basically lagging/coincident sentimentDepartment stores have to be the longest, slowest, more painful death in history @nemoredux @michaelsantoli but yeah, agree, fundamentally very different businesses today @nemoredux @michaelsantoli we're just discussing the timeframe that people use to justify if something has lagged or outperformedWow, $JPM with a huge beat @michaelsantoli Similar arguments with energy stocks & people who invested last February (when bottomed) vs 2-3y ago. @michaelsantoli I'm merely explaining why the lagged narrative exists, because they had such a big hole to dig their way out of @michaelsantoli financials dropped the most, so I think they have lagged since before the crisis right?
@tangentstyle yeah, prob could've worded more precisely @tangentstyle a lot of losses in MBS, banks that went under like LEH/Wamu, originators, small homebuilders , etc @EventLongShort permanent impairment of capital? How? Forced deleveraging that lock in losses?🔥 @BearsDraftEye17 Kizer has no "it factor". Few big drives, clutch plays like Trubisky & Watson @WaddleandSilvy they need to rebuild, it was a huge mistake to try & compete this year with a stacked draftCaptured this lone runner, blazing his own trail in the snow. Amazing. #PDXSnowmageddon2017
Retweeted by David Schawel @PScatterpatter @ElpinorFolly ooof! @HutchCPA_I yeah good point, already in progressEvery recession there's areas of the market where market participants see permanent impairment of capital - where will it be next time? @MikeTannenbaum no complaints, was fortunate to go to many games during the Jordan years @MikeTannenbaum I know, I'm a Chicago native & fan @christopherhuff @Goodbushel @Nonrelatedsense Everything sounds easy when you look back and say "Just shoulda bought X & held" well,they did @Nonrelatedsense Nah, I think calling it "one big beta trade" diminishes how awesome of a call it's been (lucky or good) @jay_21_ I mean...Rose, Melo, Noah, Wade, Rondo @Nonrelatedsense What's known is he's been dead right & made people a lot of $ in a super gutsy trade. Your opinion changes none of that. @Nonrelatedsense is someone requiring investors to stay in? Hoisington has made incredible returns, that's a fact. Future, who knows.If you missed the 2010 NBA All-Star game, check out the Knicks vs Bulls playing tonight @Nonrelatedsense isn't that the point? It's been an amazing LT trade & not easy to stick with it for so long. @conorsen sunbelt keeps winning @Nonrelatedsense @Dutch_Book not exactly easy to stay long 30s as long as they have @patrick_oshag man, you're such a human! @ylanmui @washingtonpost @CNBC nice! @tyillc @Mwilk @IvanTheK there's a ton of loan level data and disclosure for new PLMBS deals, what you're saying isn't accurateAgree.Ms Powell's accomplishments are considerable and inspirational,as is the way she has handled her growing resp…
Retweeted by David Schawel @tyillc @IvanTheK huh? that IS the current market for non-agency which you just suggested be enough @tyillc @IvanTheK nope @tyillc @IvanTheK yes...but if you think the PLMBS landscape looks anything like 2006 you're not paying attention :) @TimDuy fungibility of GSE mortgages reduces the cost for borrowers & creates a deep/liquid market for investors. W/out: much higher rates @LongShortTrader dollar? @matt_levine fair enough @tyillc @IvanTheK because like I said, many Agy MBS buyers cannot buy non Agy, or if they can, can buy much less of it @matt_levine I suppose I mean "we didn't initially think a make whole call could work against us" isn't a defense, is it? @tyillc @IvanTheK there's a very limited amount of private label deals, so with massive supply increase, yeah I think pricing would change @IvanTheK @tyillc Also high % of current buyer base couldn't participate if it became non guaranteed given Agy MBS is 0/20% risk weighted @IvanTheK @tyillc fungibility of GSE market results in deep liquid market that benefits investors and borrowers (lower pricing) @IvanTheK @tyillc it's possible but would be dramatically more expensive as each pool would need to be underwritten & traded on its own @carlquintanilla @MylesUdland @RyanDetrick Yes, What is data mining? @M_C_Klein @RuthlessGravity fungibility of bonds provides huge benefits for investors and pricing for borrowers. Improvement in what? @M_C_Klein @RuthlessGravity big change would be lack of fungibility that govt gtee creates w TBA market vs each pool traded on own meritsWrong @matt_levine does the original intention of the make whole matter with respect to whether or not they're required to make good on it? @SamsClubNews @TatianaBirgisso @drinkmati congrats ! @JBoorman a 75bp pullback off near record highs? Don't think that's the pullback many are waiting for @greatparmesan yes the market is still wrong since the election as measured by prices @greatparmesan you're being a troll @TheStalwart take duration out of the systemReal rates coming down fast in the U.S. today, approaching pre-election levels
Retweeted by David Schawel @ByScottPowers better to keep space so Panarin's overages won't push to next year? @conorsen wait, what?What the actual F??? We've all been summoned for re-education. NEWS LITERACY???! Seriously????!
Retweeted by David Schawel @LongShortTrader @modestproposal1 interesting question, but you really don't need to be good at both no? @thejbird16 they kind of stink :( @AaronLemingNFL @RobertZeglinski personally not impressed with Kizer's lack of clutch drives. Doesn't seem to have "it" factor like other 2More to run if Fed ends up being more hawkish than expected? @AaronLemingNFL I even like him despite him going to my school's rival @AaronLemingNFL @RobertZeglinski think this was a great tape of what Trubisky can do
@freeze1313 love it, have fun & tell them hello