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David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt The New York Times, in D.C.

Now: editor, The Upshot, for NYT. Then: DC bureau chief, Here's the Deal e-book, Pulitzer for commentary, math major. Still: Jim Rice, ma la, Art Blakey

1,162 Following   71,796 Followers   15,168 Tweets

Joined Twitter 7/18/10

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WSJ edit page, big boosters of Rubio, says "his gutting by Christie was as complete as any we've ever seen." https://t.co/ynuolCaC7Q
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe NYT en Español is live: https://t.co/5S9X2Zslih Congrats to @lpolgreen and team. https://t.co/vKoFon9LOXChristie: You lose, you go home. Me: If you lose will you go home? Christie: It depends on how you define lose. https://t.co/0M8pCEuoQj
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThat babies ad was great. It was also the final proof of the NFL's anti-Patriots conspiracy. @AlexBerenson Or at least fiddling with one of his four rings.Trent Dilfer makes that play. @Neil_Irwin ABPDidn't get the laces all the way around. It's enough to keep the ball drifting right.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtVon Miller, MVP so far. @Mint_mulatto But Denver wasn't ahead 10-0 in that game, right? https://t.co/KfDMUKO2kf @BovadaLV Official length of halftime?I feel terrible for saying this about Peyton Manning, but imagine how many more points Denver would have right now if they had a good QB.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtCrazy play - and heck of a play by #97 here https://t.co/5OdTzXxBVO
Retweeted by David LeonhardtIt’s 4th-and-1 for the Broncos from the Panthers’ 5. I would go for it.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtOh man. I don’t think you can use your last challenge this early for five yards.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtCarolina win expectancy halved after first quarter, from 54% down to 26% per @ESPNStatsInfo https://t.co/fRpgCoud01
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt and also... https://t.co/L2X2CQcOVp
Retweeted by David LeonhardtIt’s 4th-and-4 for the Panthers from the Broncos’ 49. I would punt.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtYou know when else the Broncos were ahead 10-0 in the Super Bowl? https://t.co/KNYAlCFrDy https://t.co/EKcYwHqJsn(And I agree.) https://t.co/yiBfqsS15mCongratulations to everyone who made the "Mike Carey gets one wrong" prop bet. @jaselzer Correct.
2/8
2016
The first turnover of the Super Bowl, and a voluntary one too. @Jemsinger @darrenrovell @BovadaLV Thanks. @jmaxmann Thanks. Source?Can we get an official time on that national anthem?it's 2016 why is coriander still a thing
Retweeted by David LeonhardtIn media coverage of Chelsea Clinton, the kid gloves are still on https://t.co/o5SQPBTC5O
Retweeted by David Leonhardt"there's simply no evidence that the mass public [shares] Sanders's vision of a drastic policy lurch to the left." https://t.co/nnAGYvKcUB
2/7
2016
The way Cruz won Iowa raises big questions about his ability to build a winning coalition https://t.co/xFnxgs6BeX https://t.co/C5pxv5kSML
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2/6
2016
How President Rubio overcame the Democrats' structural advantages in presidential politics, by @Neil_Irwin: https://t.co/R55qrFapUWHow dangerous is the Zika virus and who is most at risk? https://t.co/646MCslU4f https://t.co/gSkBMiyUEe
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @matthewjdowd Mine is just that IA and NH are two of the nation's most VT-like states (white, rural, lots of liberal Ds). @matthewjdowd Is that a contradiction? The idea is: Once people in Iowa knew Sanders, it seemed among his most hospitable states.The Sanders/Trump analogies are sometimes overdrawn, but this reordering of coalitions seems real. https://t.co/Avu4BgqFvl
2/4
2016
I think this strains the definition. Is a long burger a burger? Isn't shape a key part of burgerdom? https://t.co/nZ7H3pHg1B
Retweeted by David LeonhardtAre we sure this is bad? https://t.co/tOo1Zvaz3wHave said my piece about occasional drinking in pregnancy many times (its okay!) so not much to add for @CDC, even more insane than usual.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @SeanTrende @CitizenCohn I agree he should win some. The q is whether it's likely to be a close/uncertain race. Seems possible, not likely. @Pihk77 Yes, it was a virtual tie. But I think point stands if #2 becomes "didn't win." @CitizenCohn Fair. Make #2: He didn't win. @AynRand_is_Dead @js_edit @PaulBegala Fair. Ergo my South Carolina caveat.Yes, there are FOUR new biographies of Hillary Clinton out this month. For kids. https://t.co/JZLHnrxxN0
Retweeted by David LeonhardtDes Moines Marriott bar 24 hours after caucus. Think I saw a tumbleweed. https://t.co/I03UqwvcVR
Retweeted by David LeonhardtLet us now praise the new @jmartNYT avatar (and while we're at it, the old ones too).Great @sangerkatz story (per usual). https://t.co/GrZea4iZvL
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @ChanceBGardener @HotlineJosh And yet still more conservative than Nixon's or Bill Clinton's proposals. @PaulRoales Fair, but change "lost" to "didn't win," and I think my point stands. Iowa Dem's are whiter and lefter than typical. @edgeoforever @bombidil WA? OR? MN? @HotlineJosh Thanks a lot! @HotlineJosh I do question "veer left." He ran on univ hc, & ACA is to the right of both Nixoncare and Clintoncare. Still, it may have hurt. @HotlineJosh Your case is certainly plausible: correlation btw ACA votes, '10 House results on its side. I always enjoy our Twitter chats... @KattyKayBBC But free advertising that effectively comes with contested primary has value too. Eg 1992 Dem, 2000 GOP, 2008 Dem @carlos_thinks yes, it's certainly within the realm of possibility. Politics is sometimes surprising. @mishamishap Sure, but change "lost" to "didn't win," and I think my point stands. Iowa Dem's are whiter and lefter than typical.We love the story line because we love writing the story. The longer it lasts, the more fun. #wishprojection. https://t.co/7oqGFmH3iE
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @dorybenami Sure, but change "lost" to "didn't win," and I think my point stands. Iowa Dem's are whiter and lefter than typical. @Thunderlizard1 @brianstelter Polite Twitter (in the context of a "shove it")! I love it. @Merkin_Muffly @ckbm @PaulBegala OR? WA? @goodnewsgoddess @fmkaplan Fair. Change it to "didn't win" and point stands. @HotlineJosh @kkondik But that doesn't prove it was ACA or BHO. May have been realization of long-term trends. Eg VA going blue-ish. @Reards @Peldorskeletor Fair. @theREALMikeDunn Very white. And large share of Dem voters lean pretty far left. @speechboy71 I won't argue with 3. @kkondik @HotlineJosh I agree. These trends are bigger than Obama. @ckbm @PaulBegala Yes. The last two are less clear. @jonathanglick @BlueGreenSpork It was much longer and closer than many other "long fights," like Romney '12, Kerry '04 and Dole '96. @bombidil @edgeoforever NH, VT. Open to debate on other two. @jonathanglick Definitely. @jonathanglick Sure, he can stay in. But I don't think that's what most people making the "long fight" case mean.The "long fight" storyline is sometimes right (and may well be right in 2016). But it's right less often than we write it.To put it another way: We in the media *love* the "long fight" campaign storyline. When you hear it from us, you should be skeptical.1. Iowa is 1 of 5 states most favorable to Sanders. 2. He lost. 3. Absent evidence from SC, the "long fight for Hillary" case seems weak. @HotlineJosh What's the evidence he struggled more with blue-collar whites than a generic Dem - or HRC - would have? 2010, '14 suggest not. @HotlineJosh I'm deeply skeptical of "X candidate is losing Y demographic in the primary & thus Y won't turn out in general." @HotlineJosh Yeah, but isn't one lesson of 2008 not to extrapolate from primaries to general?Rubio's obvious echoing of Obama last night represents challenge of CW that voters pick presidents who are a stylistic break from prior one.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtWell, that's one way to beat a profit forecast. (ht @pmarca) https://t.co/1sjQPtufmfWhat I was just told “daddy leave me alone I’m in virtual reality.” https://t.co/vyeGiYG5G9
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2/3
2016
@natsecHeather Natives of Xian have always done well in Iowa. Must be the warriors.Beware the confusion of electable and moderate - also has hardline abortion position https://t.co/utWyLOGD5j
Retweeted by David LeonhardtMarco Rubio, so-called "establishment lane" candidate, has a lifetime rating of 98/100 from the American Conservative Union.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtAt current rate of progress, it will take 140 years for black college faculty to equal that of blacks in population. https://t.co/emOpKZzac7
Retweeted by David LeonhardtLet me be another person noting how good @tripgabriel's reporting on Trump's (lack of) ground game now looks.Wonder why Cruz is waiting so long to declare victory? Missed the east coast local news window (see NH and SC)
Retweeted by David LeonhardtOur Democratic models are too close for our font. https://t.co/XIQWfP9c2b
Retweeted by David LeonhardtBig winner tonight: @tripgabriel and his stories that were bearish on the Trump turnout machine
Retweeted by David Leonhardt“No one remembers who came in second.” - Walter Hagen
Retweeted by David LeonhardtOn hand for Rubio's speech? Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner. Potential VP? https://t.co/kVO1yWu8my
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @DouthatNYT Rubio, Trump numbers don't seem stupid. Cruz, Bush do. Cc @DavMicRotRubio’s speech sounds like he won Iowa. Actually a smart play.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @dleonhardt Im buying lots of Cruz at that price
Retweeted by David LeonhardtFresh GOP nomination odds --> https://t.co/JS0KOkDNZcWell put. https://t.co/nWhZvF3MWN @DavMicRot What are current GOP nomination odds?The one model we have showing Sanders ahead clarifies his challenge: it has him winning 57% of the vote left in Polk. He's down 53-46 so far
Retweeted by David LeonhardtOur models have converged on the GOP side https://t.co/NybcDWCdCE
Retweeted by David LeonhardtCruz and Clinton both at 85% in IA.
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2/2
2016
last wk of polling: Trump (blue) lost 5 pts, Cruz (black) lost 3, & Rubio (pink) gained 5 https://t.co/cUt1YYJOWN https://t.co/76Lv6BvWX9
Retweeted by David LeonhardtReveling unpublished moments in black history from NYT photo archives every day in February https://t.co/FfnT82G55j https://t.co/FyiBVGu6HQ
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2/1
2016
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