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The New York Times

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Joined Twitter 7/18/10

"Any plan that cuts taxes for the rich falls short and deserves to fail." Via @DLeonhardt
Retweeted by David LeonhardtRecommended post-election reading from Skocpol on preserving voter turnout: 5/8 #ThedasList @DLeonhardt
Retweeted by David Leonhardt
Michael Lewis is the ideal writer to tell the story of Kahneman and Tversky."The human species is fantastically complex and often doesn’t know what it is doing." @DLeonhardt on Lewis on K&T:
Retweeted by David LeonhardtSteve Mnuchin has created a simple test for Trump's tax policy.
I recommend the thread... should be a bigger story/scandal than it is right now outside of NC.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtI'm also skeptical of Steve Mnuchin's comments on taxing the rich. But don't ignore them.
Huh. people who try to enter a subway or bus before everyone trying to exit has done so.
This is going to be a thing: Bahrain to host national day at Trump's D.C. hotel
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @EasterbrookG @nytimes Thanks!So much for judges in the mold of Scalia, who affirmed the right to burn a flag in Texas v. Johnson.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtGDP, jobs and incomes have all grown more slowly under the GOP. The deficit has risen more.
Important review of evidence from @douglasnharris: Betsy DeVos and the Wrong Way to Fix Schools
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe New York Times covers the world with on-the-ground reporting. This all-star team was assigned to a single story…
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"Michigan’s version of education reform...seems to be performing worse than other states’ versions" @DLeonhardt
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I'm looking for a Betsy DeVos reading list and welcome suggestions ... @cliffordlevy !Journalists: Don't amplify this stuff without evidence! People recirculating it - how many of you were bemoaning fa…
Retweeted by David LeonhardtHe lost and should get over it
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe United States has failed to provide nearly enough blue-collar skill building by…
Retweeted by David LeonhardtLook, a boring low-energy Democratic nerd implementing policies that help the working class from @DLeonhardt
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Who offered this strong defense of a free press? Not who you might expect ... the 30 states with the lowest median incomes, Trump won 26. won't create good blue-collar jobs. But the country can create them.
The left and right helped destroy TPP ... and in the process gave authoritarian China a huge victory. Good job ever…
Retweeted by David LeonhardtI think it's possible that Clinton only did better than Obama among white postgraduates. Might not have gained much/at all w BA-only whites
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@JenGranholm Thanks a lot.This from my colleague @DLeonhardt suggests near-total vindication for everything @SeanTrende wrote after 2012:
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Key to Trump's victory: Turnout in Republican areas rose more than in Democratic areas.
Existential threat, people. Record-low sea ice, unprecedented warmth in arctic portend further profound changes.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt"In the simplest terms, Republican turnout seems to have surged this year, while Democratic turnout stagnated."
Retweeted by David LeonhardtBig soda’s well-deserved losing streak: @NYTimes @DLeonhardt
Retweeted by David LeonhardtFair point.“On net, Trump’s gains among nonvoters mattered more than his gains from vote switchers”
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"Trump’s gains among nonvoters mattered more than his gains from vote switchers" @DLeonhardt on the inspiration gap:
Retweeted by David LeonhardtWhat if Trump’s presidency isn’t the biggest existential story around right now
Retweeted by David LeonhardtNo, turnout didn't plummet this year. Yes, Democrats still have a turnout problem.
Alternatively: Facebook is now a news platform and should act like a responsible one.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @thaetan @nytimes Thank you.From @PatrickRuffini --> @joschuss @nytimes Thank you very much.We need to avoid normalizing the Bannons of the world -- and also avoid Bannonizing any signs of normalcy.
"You don't have to succumb to fluff to stay active in social media in a way that serves your mission." --Gwen Ifill
Retweeted by David LeonhardtA great woman and a great friend: Gwen Ifill dies at 61
Retweeted by David LeonhardtMany federal employees - Democrat and Republican - are wondering what to do. Here's what: Stay on, for your country.
The exit poll bias toward younger, educated, diverse electorate was a big reason Ds believed they had electoral edge. Be skeptical now, too
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Somebody just tried to equate No Child Left Behind and Trump's plan to defund the Dept of Ed. False equivalencies are dangerous y'all.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtSaw same thing in House races. Greater polling error in Upper Midwest. Huge problem for those pushing "shy Trump vo…
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe result does not seem to have been mostly about low Democratic turnout, in other words. @doug_rivers What do you think is more likely? Late swing? is an important point.
Yes, but moderated is still very welcome. @Detonato0763 @nytimes They're looking only at votes already counted, not including those out west still being counted (absentee etc).I'm realizing that some of the smartest analyses of what just happened are still those @Nate_Cohn wrote months ago. @LoganDobson Technically it's 49.7%. But point taken. @AriFleischer And check out the first reporter name on the list...Worth reading. (One q: How confident should we be about robopoll issue? Gelman was skeptical in his post-mortem.) were still wrong, by a couple points. And state polls were off. Still not clear why: - Trump non-response - ve… margin: Clinton 2016: ~+1.5% pts Nixon 1968: +0.7% Gore 2000: +0.5% JFK 1960: +0.2%»she seems likely to be ahead by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points«
Retweeted by David LeonhardtHer sizable popular-vote win creates a dilemma: Dems need more whites, without abandoning their growing coalition. is on pace to win the popular vote by a larger % than Gore in 2000. And Nixon in 1968. And Kennedy in 1960.
@losowsky We did exactly that in 2014 with spinners. It was delightful -- and still I don't think it solved the problem. Maybe unsolvable. @davidwestphal Funny, I think % support implies *more* certitude than probabilities. But that's obviously an inherently subjective question. @brendancheney Fair. But as a numbers person, I always want to know what toss up means. Is it 40-60% Or 30-70%? Many people want more detail @AlanMCole I don't deserve any credit for the model; it's my excellent colleagues. But thank you. @sangerkatz I loved field goals. Just picking some other ones, too.5. So what, if anything, might be a better language than %s for communicating uncertainty? Seems a question worth some behavioral grappling.4. Yet it’s also clear many people honestly read 70%, 85% or 90% as “going to happen.”3. Other things that happen 15% of time: - a snowy day in Cleveland - rolling a 6 with a pair of dice - an NFL rush gains more than 5 yards2. The various models were clear that Trump had a chance to win: A 10%, 15% or 30% chance is substantial.1. A question to mull: Is there a better alternative output than %-chance in election models?What Americans said they'd heard about the candidates may hold the key to Trump's big upset. via @bi_politics
Retweeted by David Leonhardt @redheaded1 @nytopinion @nytimes A fair point. The piece discusses the terrible potential damage.