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Andrew Prokop @awprokop Washington, D.C.

Senior politics correspondent at @voxdotcom

866 Following   41,425 Followers   5,429 Tweets

Joined Twitter 5/1/10

Interesting piece exploring why young doctors may be getting so sick. Argument is that it's not just *whether* you…
Obama Admin, 2009: We'll send out the money through withholding changes, broken up, so people don't even notice the…
@MattZeitlin Make yourself feel better with a reminder that people were also miserable in non-pandemic times. (Lou…
Background on the Swiss situation — next to northern Italy, reliant on cross-border workers, doing tons of testing: has tested about 1% of its population (~80K people).
Me, continuing my Abbas Kiarostami watch, seeing the end of TASTE OF CHERRY:
I mean... this is a thing that happened days before Super Tuesday 2016. would not call "the candidates polling in 5th and 6th place nationally drop out" the "most unprecedented event in…
The @COVID19Tracking state-by-state testing numbers are very useful, but they should consider adding a row for "NBA…
@mattyglesias Trump Hotels will accept payment in toilet paperCan’t wait for the argument about whether the Emergency Toilet Paper Provisions Program (Brown New Deal) should be means-testedAnd note: as horrible as those absolute numbers are, this is actually the smallest *percentage* increase compared t… the past week Italy went from 12K to 35K reported cases Will Bernie win every primary? Wired: Will Bernie ever win another primary? Inspired: Will we ever have another primary?
@dylanlscott He posted today that he's working on it "in a remote isolated location" watched AND LIFE GOES ON… (1992), an incredible Abbas Kiarostami film with resonances for our current mome…
I’m not really good at eyeballing “six feet” (for distance) so I instinctively picture myself laying on the ground.… proudest covid-19 lifehack so far has been buying a pair of gloves because earlier online reviewers complained a…
Do experts think the US death count from coronavirus is significantly understated, like the infection count? Or is…
Trump is like the "this is fine" dog except for saying "Obama was bad."
There are many presidential responsibilities Trump is ill-suited for, but disaster/pandemic response may be the one… if you know nothing about Brazilian media and don't speak the language, don't spread random stuff you see fly…"In every business I enter (whether that’s a restaurant, supermarket, or retailer), someone takes my temperature an…
Makes sense to me for Bernie to stay in now given the state of the delegate count. But if Tuesday of next week go… says he's losing the delegate count, but he's winning in support for the progressive agenda and winning amon… opens with: "Let me begin by reiterating what I have said from day one of this campaign, and that is that Do… should call it "Operation How Do You Do, Fellow Kids?" beat Sanders in Missouri by 0.25 of a percentage point. Biden is beating Sanders there by 28 percentage po…
I'm reminded of when Don Jr. suddenly took an interest in the US ambassador to Ukraine. Turned out Lev Parnas, aft… were higher in states that had a lot of votes come in before they dropped out (mail or absentee), naturally.… current vote counts, Buttigieg and Klobuchar together are at 12% in UT, 8% in CA. 5-7% in TN, NC, TX, AR, MN.… and Warren supporters spending all their time sniping at each other because nobody they interact with suppo… @nycsouthpaw It's based on (A) how many districts each is above 15% in:, (B) different confidence levels at "callin… entire @ByronYork column is basically this XKCD comic
Just saying..."Been thinking about life and mortality today..." @dylanlscott And then you can go on to watch the other films in the "Max von Sydow Death and Spiritual Despair Cine…
In retrospect NH was a bellwether of what we'd see in MA/ME on Super Tuesday (much weaker Bernie support in the reg… was it that added up the Biden+Buttigieg+Klobuchar vote in NH to show it was more than Bernie's and got mercile… @sellthekids Trump Twitter Archive — a very useful resource @MollyJongFast I expect it would be something like this: I wrote this on Friday, Biden's delegate lead over Bernie has expanded further as more votes are counted:… appears to have been under the misimpression that he could bluff and spin his way through this outbreak like… state was *the* single best state for Bernie in terms of net delegates in 2016. That advantage was alre…
He waited a bit longer (till today)
More info on why that is here: like in 2016 — a narrow win like 2016's will mean nothing for the delegate count. Bernie needs landslide wins i… @RichardLStoper .@FHQ says it looks like it would be a wash math explainer! Biden's landslide wins in VA, AL, and NC were extremely important at building his lead.… @notcapnamerica Well, Biden also said that shouldn't necessarily happen...Around this point in the 2008 and 2016 Democratic contests, the race stabilized and the outcomes in states became f… early mail ballots (where Biden did much worse and Bloomberg much better) are a remarkable look into an alterna…
@davidrlurie It definitely helps. Was near-impossible to clinch pre-June in 2016, due to CA. Now Biden *can* do tha… is what I wrote about the delegate math on March 15, 2016. Clear then that Clinton's lead was near-insurmounta… are responding by pointing to Florida. That doesn't accelerate things as much as you might think. Let's sa… @DemFromCT Maybe Bernie will quit before Biden gets to the magic number, but that certainly wasn't his approach in 2016.If Biden wins 55% of pledged delegates going forward, he wouldn't clinch a majority till June. If Biden wins 60% o… seems increasingly unlikely that the Democratic primary will end with no one getting a majority of pledged deleg… many pointed to Bernie's high favorability ratings among Dem voters as evidence that they'd flock to him after… 2012 Rs and 2020 Ds, "discovery, scrutiny, and decline" happened again and again and again. Makes Trump's immu… @pml_tray To cancel out a Florida delegate disaster of that magnitude, he'd need landslide wins of similar magnitud… to see how Bernie could possibly come back from the delegate disaster that would mean in the country's 3rd mos… comparison — it's far too early to get an accurate picture of what the CA delegate count will end up being, but… "net" I mean how many delegates more than Bernie that Biden got there. It's a useful way to track how a candida…'s landslides in AL, VA, and NC look to be really important for his delegate lead. He'll net around 90 delegat…
@HayesBrown Is it because you realized how much great content over the past 10 days you must have missed out on?Bernie, asked if he still believes the plurality delegate winner should be the nominee, gives a lengthy answer that… did pioneer the online fundraising model and was the fundraising leader in the field. But yes, many difference… was Iowa that effectively elevated Kerry and sent him surging nationally (and sunk Dean) in '04. This time aroun… thread and also a relevant comparison re: 2004 may be Dean/Bernie. Dean surged into first place in a divided… vote shares for candidates in Super Tuesday states (per current count): Biden: AL (63%), VA (53%), NC (43%… @intersquid @watertigernyc I actually downplayed the results at the time. I've also argued that the obsession with… Biden wins the nomination, he will have performed by far the worst in IA+NH (4th and 5th) of any nominee since t… Biden wins and this is the turning point, it's also basically a more extreme version of the "frontrunner survivi… good to have more historical examples than "the last thing that happened!" Recollection of 2004 for instanc… only winning MN, DC, and Puerto Rico was very funny, but Bloomberg only winning American Samoa is way funnier.Looking like Biden will emerge from Super Tuesday with a significant but not enormous delegate lead. The catch is:… Sanders+Warren combo would have changed the outcome in two states: MA and ME. But that would hardly matter for th… assumptions of course are unrealistic. (I'd guess Biden is likely to pick up a larger share of Bloomberg vote…, let's say Biden+Bloomberg was one candidate, and Sanders+Warren is another. Here are current Super Tuesday ma… is more complicated than this, voters won't all go one way, etc.And… current Sanders+Warren totals in Super Tuesday states: VT: 63% CO: 53% UT: 50% MA: 49% ME: 49% CA: 46% MN: 45%… for fun... current Biden+Bloomberg totals in Super Tuesday states: AL: 75% VA: 63% AR: 57% NC: 57% TN: 57% OK:… retweeting this for no apparent reason subject to change (especially bc CA vote not in), but NYT is currently projecting Biden emerges from all… whether margins in VA (which has very little early vote, and Biden is winning huge) differ from margins in…
@DKarol Bloomberg is actually the candidate who got the most (unweighted) endorsements in 538 tracker in February 2… @DKarol Seems to me that party elites doubt their ability to anoint/elevate one candidate in large field. Doubts ab… @RDEliason Sure but we gotta talk about something until we have results! (More seriously, the last two days were i… @rainmar7 The Census Bureau says yes, though I acknowledge people have different views on that question (like the q… early state momentum bounce giveth, and the early state momentum bounce taketh away fun, I tweaked the 2016 delegate numbers so that: -Clinton's delegate advantage in the South is cut in half -Be… super tuesday is so ~* super *~, by @awprokop
Retweeted by Andrew ProkopGonna be a fun roller coaster news cycle as we get in most Super Tuesday states, then CA day-of vote, then graduall… instance, take TX. Clinton won it by 32 points in 2016. Netted 72 delegates there. That represented about 1/5 o… the trends here are good for Biden. And yet, these polls show him winning every Southern state (usually b… because Trump won with pluralities against a divided field, that didn't mean Bernie will. But also: just beca… @KatieStamp81 @today_explained Depends on the state - in some, only registered Democratic voters can participate. I… 2008, Obama ended up getting just 127 more pledged delegates than Clinton. He finished with about 51% of total p… @theositther @today_explained @DemsAbroad Dems Abroad voting is 3/03-3/10 so not really a Super Tuesday contest.