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Andrew Prokop @awprokop Washington, D.C.

Senior politics correspondent at @voxdotcom

866 Following   41,425 Followers   5,429 Tweets

Joined Twitter 5/1/10


Interesting piece exploring why young doctors may be getting so sick. Argument is that it's not just *whether* you… https://t.co/PRvT2lGKrW
4/2
2020
Obama Admin, 2009: We'll send out the money through withholding changes, broken up, so people don't even notice the… https://t.co/NJMACuJcgF
3/28
2020
@MattZeitlin Make yourself feel better with a reminder that people were also miserable in non-pandemic times. (Lou… https://t.co/IMCGZOHsEs
3/26
2020
Background on the Swiss situation — next to northern Italy, reliant on cross-border workers, doing tons of testing: https://t.co/8G0wqRIabwSwitzerland has tested about 1% of its population (~80K people). https://t.co/xelglLVZvI https://t.co/inKvBEsfa8
3/25
2020
Me, continuing my Abbas Kiarostami watch, seeing the end of TASTE OF CHERRY: https://t.co/F9WZE5zLXu
3/24
2020
I mean... this is a thing that happened days before Super Tuesday 2016. https://t.co/yEG6C7xsMnI would not call "the candidates polling in 5th and 6th place nationally drop out" the "most unprecedented event in… https://t.co/tVk8EomJje
3/21
2020
The @COVID19Tracking state-by-state testing numbers are very useful, but they should consider adding a row for "NBA… https://t.co/84CkJRSl3z
3/19
2020
@mattyglesias Trump Hotels will accept payment in toilet paperCan’t wait for the argument about whether the Emergency Toilet Paper Provisions Program (Brown New Deal) should be means-testedAnd note: as horrible as those absolute numbers are, this is actually the smallest *percentage* increase compared t… https://t.co/xo2hvy4p0fOver the past week Italy went from 12K to 35K reported cases https://t.co/0EEGpEGdgTTired: Will Bernie win every primary? Wired: Will Bernie ever win another primary? Inspired: Will we ever have another primary?
3/18
2020
@dylanlscott He posted today that he's working on it "in a remote isolated location" https://t.co/lH5pZbP1kJ https://t.co/z9MCmd3hMJRecently watched AND LIFE GOES ON… (1992), an incredible Abbas Kiarostami film with resonances for our current mome… https://t.co/ylCF9CcCfQ
3/17
2020
I’m not really good at eyeballing “six feet” (for distance) so I instinctively picture myself laying on the ground.… https://t.co/a2oft7yamHMy proudest covid-19 lifehack so far has been buying a pair of gloves because earlier online reviewers complained a… https://t.co/M4U6BRRXn4
3/16
2020
Do experts think the US death count from coronavirus is significantly understated, like the infection count? Or is… https://t.co/jITQSFutrT
3/14
2020
Trump is like the "this is fine" dog except for saying "Obama was bad."
3/13
2020
There are many presidential responsibilities Trump is ill-suited for, but disaster/pandemic response may be the one… https://t.co/T9zkDEbxX2Maybe if you know nothing about Brazilian media and don't speak the language, don't spread random stuff you see fly… https://t.co/U0OQzJpvkS"In every business I enter (whether that’s a restaurant, supermarket, or retailer), someone takes my temperature an… https://t.co/dcOlUQYWzD
3/12
2020
Makes sense to me for Bernie to stay in now given the state of the delegate count. But if Tuesday of next week go… https://t.co/CoxOmceEXCBernie says he's losing the delegate count, but he's winning in support for the progressive agenda and winning amon… https://t.co/2NFQb1SRwVBernie opens with: "Let me begin by reiterating what I have said from day one of this campaign, and that is that Do… https://t.co/QgOw5x6C2WThey should call it "Operation How Do You Do, Fellow Kids?" https://t.co/7uckZtDjQ3Clinton beat Sanders in Missouri by 0.25 of a percentage point. Biden is beating Sanders there by 28 percentage po… https://t.co/9lQLVP7COe
3/11
2020
I'm reminded of when Don Jr. suddenly took an interest in the US ambassador to Ukraine. Turned out Lev Parnas, aft… https://t.co/5jr8AnroVeThey were higher in states that had a lot of votes come in before they dropped out (mail or absentee), naturally.… https://t.co/9mM8cspqmWIn current vote counts, Buttigieg and Klobuchar together are at 12% in UT, 8% in CA. 5-7% in TN, NC, TX, AR, MN.… https://t.co/YQsiZy3HUDSanders and Warren supporters spending all their time sniping at each other because nobody they interact with suppo… https://t.co/oIotIoIZaN @nycsouthpaw It's based on (A) how many districts each is above 15% in:, (B) different confidence levels at "callin… https://t.co/kvXF1gSavaThis entire @ByronYork column is basically this XKCD comic https://t.co/oQnQIggSfl https://t.co/ahx9sXRZWa https://t.co/awqXQ2asRr
3/10
2020
Just saying... https://t.co/OFLYonAQgm"Been thinking about life and mortality today..." https://t.co/bmvT76E0US @dylanlscott And then you can go on to watch the other films in the "Max von Sydow Death and Spiritual Despair Cine… https://t.co/rDCJFvYm43
3/9
2020
In retrospect NH was a bellwether of what we'd see in MA/ME on Super Tuesday (much weaker Bernie support in the reg… https://t.co/ubAonfgAg8Who was it that added up the Biden+Buttigieg+Klobuchar vote in NH to show it was more than Bernie's and got mercile… https://t.co/UP9JgDgdba @sellthekids Trump Twitter Archive — a very useful resource https://t.co/hkVGwPBmVB @MollyJongFast I expect it would be something like this: https://t.co/o0fbTIXJZDSince I wrote this on Friday, Biden's delegate lead over Bernie has expanded further as more votes are counted:… https://t.co/likR4O8GHMTrump appears to have been under the misimpression that he could bluff and spin his way through this outbreak like… https://t.co/ZQ8Xl0rNoHWashington state was *the* single best state for Bernie in terms of net delegates in 2016. That advantage was alre… https://t.co/sFelNWToI5
3/8
2020
He waited a bit longer (till today) https://t.co/yko4Wx8HBX
3/7
2020
More info on why that is here: https://t.co/IpvHTCKxeQ https://t.co/hIYN496RxCNot like in 2016 — a narrow win like 2016's will mean nothing for the delegate count. Bernie needs landslide wins i… https://t.co/lcl4Mj4lKP @RichardLStoper .@FHQ says it looks like it would be a wash https://t.co/cWvMBXhM6YDelegate math explainer! Biden's landslide wins in VA, AL, and NC were extremely important at building his lead.… https://t.co/sgWWOxX7uc @notcapnamerica Well, Biden also said that shouldn't necessarily happen...Around this point in the 2008 and 2016 Democratic contests, the race stabilized and the outcomes in states became f… https://t.co/VFw8TMvaLsThe early mail ballots (where Biden did much worse and Bloomberg much better) are a remarkable look into an alterna… https://t.co/kgLqYpfYHs
3/6
2020
@davidrlurie It definitely helps. Was near-impossible to clinch pre-June in 2016, due to CA. Now Biden *can* do tha… https://t.co/NFzeyWhZuJThis is what I wrote about the delegate math on March 15, 2016. Clear then that Clinton's lead was near-insurmounta… https://t.co/Lz41XvSFe6People are responding by pointing to Florida. That doesn't accelerate things as much as you might think. Let's sa… https://t.co/Np7yKN4PhG @DemFromCT Maybe Bernie will quit before Biden gets to the magic number, but that certainly wasn't his approach in 2016.If Biden wins 55% of pledged delegates going forward, he wouldn't clinch a majority till June. If Biden wins 60% o… https://t.co/h9lvimpG1QIt seems increasingly unlikely that the Democratic primary will end with no one getting a majority of pledged deleg… https://t.co/FNh5VpIpPMAnd many pointed to Bernie's high favorability ratings among Dem voters as evidence that they'd flock to him after… https://t.co/tIBM99OZnrFor 2012 Rs and 2020 Ds, "discovery, scrutiny, and decline" happened again and again and again. Makes Trump's immu… https://t.co/eb1SElzaCr @pml_tray To cancel out a Florida delegate disaster of that magnitude, he'd need landslide wins of similar magnitud… https://t.co/hASNHfcN1tHard to see how Bernie could possibly come back from the delegate disaster that would mean in the country's 3rd mos… https://t.co/ptNuGfGrnnFor comparison — it's far too early to get an accurate picture of what the CA delegate count will end up being, but… https://t.co/X3uuh1rw3q(By "net" I mean how many delegates more than Bernie that Biden got there. It's a useful way to track how a candida… https://t.co/cOX4w0UIyqBiden's landslides in AL, VA, and NC look to be really important for his delegate lead. He'll net around 90 delegat… https://t.co/qXuk1sIP5E
3/5
2020
@HayesBrown Is it because you realized how much great content over the past 10 days you must have missed out on?Bernie, asked if he still believes the plurality delegate winner should be the nominee, gives a lengthy answer that… https://t.co/5YaM2AmOBnDean did pioneer the online fundraising model and was the fundraising leader in the field. But yes, many difference… https://t.co/rzUH0gkjHtIt was Iowa that effectively elevated Kerry and sent him surging nationally (and sunk Dean) in '04. This time aroun… https://t.co/UsYDJtE0uZGood thread and also a relevant comparison re: 2004 may be Dean/Bernie. Dean surged into first place in a divided… https://t.co/p7wxvF709dHighest vote shares for candidates in Super Tuesday states (per current count): Biden: AL (63%), VA (53%), NC (43%… https://t.co/nrIAFTdeDI @intersquid @watertigernyc I actually downplayed the results at the time. I've also argued that the obsession with… https://t.co/Nn40vwG9myIf Biden wins the nomination, he will have performed by far the worst in IA+NH (4th and 5th) of any nominee since t… https://t.co/0E0r7hs8Z5If Biden wins and this is the turning point, it's also basically a more extreme version of the "frontrunner survivi… https://t.co/FB8QIaCV0dAlways good to have more historical examples than "the last thing that happened!" Recollection of 2004 for instanc… https://t.co/d6UaGSLjoQRubio only winning MN, DC, and Puerto Rico was very funny, but Bloomberg only winning American Samoa is way funnier.Looking like Biden will emerge from Super Tuesday with a significant but not enormous delegate lead. The catch is:… https://t.co/zZqb3OsZMLA Sanders+Warren combo would have changed the outcome in two states: MA and ME. But that would hardly matter for th… https://t.co/N2DSToF5BVThese assumptions of course are unrealistic. (I'd guess Biden is likely to pick up a larger share of Bloomberg vote… https://t.co/LEMPLBSPtGOkay, let's say Biden+Bloomberg was one candidate, and Sanders+Warren is another. Here are current Super Tuesday ma… https://t.co/sz9yG43myMLife is more complicated than this, voters won't all go one way, etc.And… current Sanders+Warren totals in Super Tuesday states: VT: 63% CO: 53% UT: 50% MA: 49% ME: 49% CA: 46% MN: 45%… https://t.co/uQbkcSLHbPJust for fun... current Biden+Bloomberg totals in Super Tuesday states: AL: 75% VA: 63% AR: 57% NC: 57% TN: 57% OK:… https://t.co/KO2pm0CsrkJust retweeting this for no apparent reason https://t.co/iuL6L26difObviously subject to change (especially bc CA vote not in), but NYT is currently projecting Biden emerges from all… https://t.co/s6xsnTNDJtCurious whether margins in VA (which has very little early vote, and Biden is winning huge) differ from margins in… https://t.co/UOJgOyfY6P
3/4
2020
@DKarol Bloomberg is actually the candidate who got the most (unweighted) endorsements in 538 tracker in February 2… https://t.co/jF5MziPWPb @DKarol Seems to me that party elites doubt their ability to anoint/elevate one candidate in large field. Doubts ab… https://t.co/ZeFpYNLYd4 @RDEliason Sure but we gotta talk about something until we have results! (More seriously, the last two days were i… https://t.co/7s1B0cm51p @rainmar7 The Census Bureau says yes, though I acknowledge people have different views on that question (like the q… https://t.co/umZ3Th9SwwThe early state momentum bounce giveth, and the early state momentum bounce taketh away https://t.co/X0hCUPb9rpFor fun, I tweaked the 2016 delegate numbers so that: -Clinton's delegate advantage in the South is cut in half -Be… https://t.co/o9R6RVxGeLwhy super tuesday is so ~* super *~, by @awprokop https://t.co/2gs7IRKYLz
Retweeted by Andrew ProkopGonna be a fun roller coaster news cycle as we get in most Super Tuesday states, then CA day-of vote, then graduall… https://t.co/GqDDirEPuTFor instance, take TX. Clinton won it by 32 points in 2016. Netted 72 delegates there. That represented about 1/5 o… https://t.co/npLBOBRvY7Obviously the trends here are good for Biden. And yet, these polls show him winning every Southern state (usually b… https://t.co/bf2ADIn1t4Just because Trump won with pluralities against a divided field, that didn't mean Bernie will. But also: just beca… https://t.co/OUmzEG4aXx @KatieStamp81 @today_explained Depends on the state - in some, only registered Democratic voters can participate. I… https://t.co/G2pbFUc3knIn 2008, Obama ended up getting just 127 more pledged delegates than Clinton. He finished with about 51% of total p… https://t.co/Zzziq2hDh6 @theositther @today_explained @DemsAbroad Dems Abroad voting is 3/03-3/10 so not really a Super Tuesday contest.
3/3
2020

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