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Senior Research Fellow, @ICSR_Centre | PhDer, @warstudies | Associate/Fellow, @ICCT_TheHague, @CTSC_Project & @I_W_M | charlie.winter@kcl.ac.uk

1,298 Following   24,908 Followers   8,974 Tweets

Joined Twitter 7/19/13


New @OUPAcademic volume featuring S. Baele, K. Boyd, T. Coan, @KurtBraddock @charliewinter @b_rottweilerUCLhttps://t.co/gCkyP4mLlb
Retweeted by Charlie Winter
10/23
2019
63. As for official comms and day-to-day activities, back to normal operational simmer—just the one attack claimed… https://t.co/9HlGZmqZPn62. Interestingly, one #IS|er did pick up on #UK decision to repatriate orphans. “This means they aren’t taking bac… https://t.co/Ee8DpauLwg61. On the forums, much of the urgency around leaving has gone—for now at least. There is still an obvious appetite… https://t.co/5hhD62eIqc60. 21 Oct: Two of #IS’s key IDP forums came back online yesterday. Tenor of conversation has again changed gear. S… https://t.co/f0u0Avs2nX59. Interestingly, there was no Bayan Radio bulletin yesterday. They usually come daily. I wonder if someone (… https://t.co/gVSftl4gXN58. 19 Oct: Conspicuous silence on #Syria from both #IS (aside from a single ghanimah pic from #Busayrah) and most… https://t.co/cR6hPWQ44u57. As an aside, #IS|ers in al Hol have been throwing shade on the Fikku al-Asirat campaign, which @ajaltamimi inte… https://t.co/yoxOVVPGBj56. What with that and earlier reports from other #IS|ers that services have now resumed in al Hol, it seems that t… https://t.co/VpE7rETBrp55. The above is an interesting (and, quite frankly, surprising) indication of the tone of current discussions arou… https://t.co/SeV7DE9Uvy54. Meanwhile, unofficial #IS comms have been stressing that #FSA and #Assad regime prisons are just as bad as thos… https://t.co/lq21knnjk953. Besides al-Naba’, #IS also published a video showing its fighters executing a man accused of handing female #IShttps://t.co/8D7YQ6TFY352. Elsewhere in this week’s issue of al-Naba’, #IS reports on the various activities it’s deployed “to avenge the… https://t.co/9hJA31OCIT51. 18 Oct: As expected, the editorial of #IS’s newspaper focuses on northern #Syria. It hits all the talking point… https://t.co/aqxluRmIq850. To be taken with a big pinch of salt until further (/any) evidence emerges.49. 17 Oct: #IS has claimed it stormed an #SDF position about 90km south of #AinIssa, freeing "a number of kidnappe… https://t.co/0HvOagsJpo48. In any case, I’m still keeping a close eye on al Hol. And, given the clock’s ticking when it comes to regime se… https://t.co/xHc8fdiLur47. Either way, I’d expect #IS’s radio silence on #Turkey’s incursion to break sometime soon. There’s only so long… https://t.co/ILRTMKNTSP46. This could be due to an operational refit presaging another major uptick in #IS ops, or it could simply be a re… https://t.co/sYBm00t4Lv45. Interestingly, the character of #IS’s activities has reverted to type—away from the spectaculars it deployed im… https://t.co/4i7hyGTvtz44. Whatever the case, #IS has been lying low the last couple of days. After claiming 7 attacks in NE #Syria on Mon… https://t.co/dSzFRVBU8x43. Online, #IS’s radio silence on #Turkey’s incursion into #Syria and the #SDF’s deal with #Damascus is deafening.… https://t.co/u8pRdze8go42. 16 Oct: Quick update on #IS’s response to northern #Syria developments. Not much is clear, but reports of a sus… https://t.co/WRPypst2Ad41. Next few days, my eyes are firmly on al Hol.40. I’m a bit surprised by the tone of this letter to be honest. Given the tenor of #Baghdadi’s last statement, I w… https://t.co/o03WlKJ5IL39. “...If you do not, we will slaughter you. There is no one to protect you and we are everywhere.” Interesting im… https://t.co/pGAPXcfgzN38. Also, #IS officials have been distributing a letter to communities in vicinity of camps. It essentially says, “… https://t.co/zXJ91OJwsA37. Other #IS|ers—along with #IS itself—have been issuing warnings against corrupt smugglers looking to extort fema… https://t.co/KLPwGmsLap36. Based on how precipitously it fell, #IS|ers have been encouraging families in al Hol (which is a much bigger ca… https://t.co/0GkXLEZxFs35. On the camps: #AinIssa’s collapse, which reportedly led to some 800 #IS supporters escaping, has been met with… https://t.co/qJzwBDsIjz34. As an aside, it would be a disaster if #Assad gets his hands on those 1000s of #IS detainees. In the short-term… https://t.co/3Aw3dU5MBX33. On the prisons: No change since my last comments, though there will perhaps be more urgency to act now that #SAA is moving in.32. Crucially, this chaos is all being cast as a new opportunity. #IS|ers going so far as to describe it as a “seco… https://t.co/gVVDexpDdS31. The undertone to #IS|ers’ discussions on this is that it demonstrates their enemies’ fundamental fragility whil… https://t.co/9M0MfM7WMZ30. In any case, this is all very good optics for #IS. Here’s how it’s being framed: “western crusaders [#US], exha… https://t.co/vRbqul8QHT29. It’s too early to say how (or even if) #IS will adapt militarily to #SAA deployments in northern #Syria, but I’… https://t.co/YyIrmxpjR728. 14 Oct: What a difference 36 hours makes. Now that the #SAA is deploying to the north, some new thoughts on #IS’s response.27. (Usual caveats apply: this is reasoned speculation and could turn out to be completely wrong.)26. Basically, it’s not great news.I've consolidated my last few threads on #IS's response to developments in northern #Syria and will be expanding on… https://t.co/ONg4vcTzx625. That said, #IS probably isn’t in any big rush. The prisons are the strategic priority right now. And besides, i… https://t.co/vMXyRYjMUe24. #Baghdadi called for this very explicitly in his last speech, so if no efforts were made at all it’d be egg on… https://t.co/eM7yQAFBc123. On the camps (where IDPs, mainly women/children, are being held): While important to #IS, these are a lesser pr… https://t.co/P53YAZlvI022. Hence, #IS unlikely to make a serious move on the prisons until it’s confident it has the right preparations in… https://t.co/pfoR5YgwuS21. For maximum strategic effect, jailbreaks need serious planning; they should be intel-led with an immediate off-… https://t.co/NueM1Yhw7s20. On the prisons (where fighters are being held): These are a priority right now. If #IS were able to facilitate… https://t.co/mdzEYRaPe219. I don’t expect #IS’s silence will last for long. Keep an eye out for something in next week’s al-Naba’ editoria… https://t.co/jSGNnArAwN18. Instead, this week’s uptick in #IS activity has been framed as retaliation for the “escalating” ills through wh… https://t.co/zSRbL5EJdh17. Critically, while #IS supporters have largely welcomed #Turkey’s campaign (some enthusiastically but most only… https://t.co/mp5zDfz04L16. Since #Trump’s volte face, #IS cells have been engaging in unusually impactful, costly & daring ops. An inghima… https://t.co/ulmwjapyMN15. On tactics: #IS appears to have reactivated its covert cells in NE #Syria, having put them (mostly) on a back-b… https://t.co/QlOvxaxYMp14. 12 Oct: Some general observations about #IS’s response over last 72 hours.13. Basically, it's probably a good idea to always wait for confirmation from lots of different sources before leap… https://t.co/nVS9yqP7X412. In any case, even if both #SDF & #IS report same thing in same way, there is still room for exaggeration. Certa… https://t.co/CVDTZ2Np4J11. Seems this Hol report has legs. Other #IS|ers have intervened to say there was attempt to rush the camp gates t… https://t.co/kg3RJ22Mse10. 11 Oct: #SDF accounts circulating vid purporting to show riot in al Hol. #IS|ers in al Hol claiming that nothin… https://t.co/LFwKonzkdR9. Telling post from pro-#IS channel shows Ocalan billboard being trashed in N #Syria; comment reads, “We don’t rej… https://t.co/B1agXWvkAW8. 10 Oct: Okay, so #IS have now issued a report about #Raqqa, saying *one* inghimasi fighter hit an #SDF HQ last n… https://t.co/PMfpyO7Yha7. Either it wasn’t #IS (seems unlikely), #IS’s #Syria comms are down (seems unlikely), or this is part of somethin… https://t.co/MOSQwBvQd06. To be quite honest, I don’t know what’s going on. If the #Raqqa attacks were indeed #IS, its reporting on them—o… https://t.co/CAc6TOvkzN5. Instead, munasirin speaking simply of “armed raids in #Raqqa” without tying them to #IS, or even going so far as… https://t.co/qNd0QBu2Io4. Last night, however, #IS’s official newswires were silent and even its supporters were uncharacteristically tent… https://t.co/roYXyBw5KA3. This is strange. When #IS has mounted flash urban assaults in years gone by, it has intensively reported on them… https://t.co/zYmRFWJ0pR2. 9 Oct: Something weird going on in #Raqqa, which was, per #SDF reports last night, subject to a “large-scale ass… https://t.co/3mbwJ1C64c1. Ongoing thread covering #IS’s response to and comms around recent developments in northern #Syria. Focus will be… https://t.co/23cUK3B34UThorough synthesis of seemingly everything that’s been written about #IS’s influence (and influencers) in al Hol. H… https://t.co/bK3U07cMeQDon’t miss ICSR Director @ShirazMaher’s NS cover story on the far-reaching implications of recent developments in n… https://t.co/CJIsWxghdj
10/21
2019
7. As an aside, various #IS|ers (some in al Hol) have been throwing shade on the Fikku al-Asirat campaign, which… https://t.co/NPnUGhu5CV6. What with that and earlier reports from other #IS|ers that services have now resumed in al Hol, it seems that th… https://t.co/M4biRAPpQr5. This is an interesting (and, quite frankly, surprising) indication of the tone of current discussions around the… https://t.co/h6YSIqZN4s4. Meanwhile, unofficial #IS comms have been stressing that #FSA and #Assad regime prisons are just as bad as those… https://t.co/bkP0cd8ECs3. Besides al-Naba’, #IS also published a video showing its fighters executing a man accused of handing female #IS|… https://t.co/xX52BH2PAO2. Elsewhere in this week’s issue of al-Naba’, #IS reports on the various activities it’s deployed to “avenge the c… https://t.co/aq76q0548f1. As expected, the editorial of #IS’s newspaper focuses on northern #Syria. It hits all the talking points you’d e… https://t.co/WhdeHAxLBCQuick update on #IS comms around northern #Syria:If you haven't yet read @Elizrael's latest piece on #Syria, do so today. It draws on conversations with Kurds, Assy… https://t.co/GNCDW56rKTThis is important. https://t.co/9htWcOtRHu
10/18
2019
#IS has claimed it stormed an #SDF position about 90km south of #AinIssa, freeing "a number of kidnapped female Mus… https://t.co/MxrJvqIYnBIn #AlHol, some hardliners think their "brothers" will come to free them now. #ISIS may opt against this, says… https://t.co/e7u5l1JVdv
Retweeted by Charlie Winter
10/17
2019
7. In any case, I’m still keeping a close eye on al Hol. And, given the clock’s ticking when it comes to regime sec… https://t.co/9jYJL1kXAr6. Either way, I’d expect #IS’s radio silence to break sometime soon. There’s only so long that it can keep shtum o… https://t.co/XeL7NehHdB5. This could be due to an operational refit presaging another major spike in #IS ops, or it could simply be a refl… https://t.co/AxaxkI2FRn4. Interestingly, the character of #IS’s activities has reverted to type—away from the spectaculars it deployed imm… https://t.co/fezXpbPP303. Whatever the case, #IS has been lying fairy low the last couple of days. After claiming 7 attacks in NE #Syria o… https://t.co/XnaZ89nlSN2. Online, #IS’s radio silence on #Turkey’s incursion into #Syria and the #SDF’s deal with #Damascus is deafening.… https://t.co/125jVpyIGl1. Reports of #IS resurgence in northern #Syria don’t reflect reality at present. Things have continued to slow sin… https://t.co/G95C0UKRFSFascinating interview with @charliewinter just now on how #ISIS may react to latest #Syria chaos. Will they try to… https://t.co/qZWNPfyqdZ
Retweeted by Charlie WinterChilling words here. Inside al #Hol camp residents tell me, hardliners wait in anticipation, drawing up "lists" of… https://t.co/8ozJrbhtq0
Retweeted by Charlie Winter
10/16
2019
13. Next few days, my eyes are firmly on al Hol.12. (I’m a bit surprised by the tone of the letter to be honest. Given the tenor of #Baghdadi’s last statement, I w… https://t.co/PjgA8e3foB11. “...If you do not, we will slaughter you. There is no one to protect you and we are everywhere.” Interesting im… https://t.co/ASDqFySmGN10. Also, #IS officials have been distributing a letter to communities in vicinity of camps. It essentially says, “… https://t.co/MXjnHTRPbT9. Other #IS|ers—along with #IS itself—have been issuing warnings against corrupt smugglers looking to extort femal… https://t.co/2XJ74vFN2K8. Based on how precipitously it fell, #IS|ers have been encouraging families in al Hol (which is a much bigger cam… https://t.co/5rZ9VaUd4S7. On the camps: #AinIssa’s collapse, which reportedly led to some 800 #IS supporters escaping (I'd be careful with… https://t.co/G1VcYH8ueU6. As an aside, it would be a disaster if #Assad gets his hands on those 1000s of #IS detainees. In the short-term… https://t.co/4QnwvZpumx5. On the prisons: No change since my last comments, though there will perhaps be more urgency to act now that the #SAA is moving in.4. Crucially, this chaos is all being cast as a new opportunity. #IS|ers going so far as to describe it as a “secon… https://t.co/OTjQDxgYIm3. The undertone to #IS|ers’ discussions on this is that it demonstrates their enemies’ fundamental fragility while… https://t.co/019u14LPN22. In any case, this is all very good optics for #IS. Here’s how it’s being framed: “Western crusaders [#US], exhau… https://t.co/nYQbNhmPzf
10/14
2019

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