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Jason Furman @jasonfurman Cambridge, MA

Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chairman of President Obama's CEA.

1,097 Following   49,782 Followers   4,049 Tweets

Joined Twitter 4/8/11


Shocked & saddened to learn of the early death of Alberto Alesina. Alberto truly changed the trajectory of my life.… https://t.co/G5tts13ej6
Retweeted by Jason Furman
5/25
2020
At a loss for words (an affliction he never knew!) upon news we've lost Alberto Alesina. A fond memory: he ran NBER… https://t.co/ejQciFrs94
Retweeted by Jason FurmanTragic loss of Alberto Alesina. I was planning a PhD in political science with some economics on the side when he h… https://t.co/5ACvLZnU2h
5/24
2020
@MichaelRStrain Hopefully yes (inflation would be good) but probably not. And the short-run data won’t be informat… https://t.co/IMKhAtw4Gd
5/21
2020
No comment @carlquintanilla Link?
5/20
2020
@rortybomb The Treasury insisting the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program does not lose money, virtually guaranteeing… https://t.co/Uc0s4JSuQr
5/18
2020
@sam_a_bell @oren_cass Nothing wrong with a little trolling now and then! But we’ll hear what @oren_cass has to say about it. @sam_a_bell @oren_cass It was irresponsible that inflation was below target for more than a decade?Also an interesting thread, I should have cited @VeronicaGuerri7 @guido_lorenzoni @ludwigstraub @IvanWerning in my… https://t.co/wDjNV2fF4V
5/17
2020
@ModeledBehavior @Mitchell_JoshW @karlbykarlsmith @MaMoMVPY I’m saying the true inflation rate higher than measured… https://t.co/BuMmyhuoSa @colinworeilly 1. Supply shock first (virus appeared) 2. Caused demand shock (people lose jobs, worry about future… https://t.co/wbUKTyh7zN @Mitchell_JoshW @ModeledBehavior @karlbykarlsmith @MaMoMVPY I don't know, would be interested. But is second order… https://t.co/0FlrVtQVsM @jasonfurman Our measurement exercise suggests that it was two-thirds supply in April: https://t.co/B9F6rr9Dbm
Retweeted by Jason Furman @jack_jgao China has done a much smaller fiscal stimulus than the United States. So yes, the fiscal stimulus was an… https://t.co/kTWSMU5dAI @market_noises Agree. If QE directly lowers returns on some asset classes it will cause money to flow into other cl… https://t.co/XwFh1DRPEB @ModeledBehavior @karlbykarlsmith @MaMoMVPY Yes, that is why I was referring to April and May in my comments on disposable personal income. @TheStalwart Although normally many consumers are liquidity constrained and do base their consumption on current in… https://t.co/hZgUn2zrpC @TheStalwart Agree. Demand shocks are not just based on current income but also expected income, expected future co… https://t.co/cL2KYOZvKM @TheStalwart Who said it didn't cause a demand shock? I was completely clear there was a large demand shock. But w… https://t.co/taC83XTL7L @karlbykarlsmith Yes, that is also a demand shock (fell under animal spirits and precautionary saving in some of th… https://t.co/EmH1BTuwxV @Brendan_Duke Finally, I place 10% odds on inflation>4%, higher than the market expectations. But if that happens I… https://t.co/eTYtsyVkl8 @Brendan_Duke If we (i.e., you!) had not done a lot of demand policy then we would also have a massive, massive dem… https://t.co/RungSFo7X1 @Brendan_Duke Great question. You didn't need macro analysis to say how important it is to actually solve the virus… https://t.co/BoyVYlFzyV @BrooklynBiome Definitely, I tried to be clear that there is definitely a demand shock. Several of my tweets pointe… https://t.co/cG737bFLn0 @Claudia_Sahm @JumanaSaleheen @uscensusbureau @BEA_News @USDOL @BLS_gov @federalreserve And, of course, GDP does no… https://t.co/3pokBtpem3 @Claudia_Sahm @JumanaSaleheen @uscensusbureau @BEA_News @USDOL @BLS_gov @federalreserve Cg, I wrote about how to in… https://t.co/8aDblbar5u @Claudia_Sahm @JumanaSaleheen @uscensusbureau @BEA_News @USDOL @BLS_gov @federalreserve You know I've consistently… https://t.co/ng3ajOgW7i @IrvingSwisher What if the balance sheet of the household sector improves in April and May but consumption is down… https://t.co/okyxhpBYUM @Claudia_Sahm @JumanaSaleheen As I said, I have an open mind, but we'll need a lot of micro data to settle, the mac… https://t.co/5wqPy0AU7v @market_noises The CPI is supposed to adjust for quality. In this case it is not doing that. Not faulting BLS, just… https://t.co/Ayki7uuRD4 @market_noises The services we're buying now--or will be buying when everything reopens--are very different than wh… https://t.co/gLtHZJi7QN @market_noises (Changing to November to be ultra clear). In November: Could produce a haircut with no chance of ge… https://t.co/bfkPcb4H57 @Claudia_Sahm @tylercowen I'm so worried because I think we have good tools for demand/liquidity/stop-start shocks… https://t.co/ervOJ8DWYM @Claudia_Sahm @tylercowen I share your frustration about when people argue supply shock means no need for fiscal po… https://t.co/7StyFR05sL @mattyglesias The vast majority of durables are purchased in brick and mortar stores. April was not a great month t… https://t.co/6HIGNbrXQv @mattyglesias That is indeed a demand shock. Although for most people durable goods are not a perfect substitute f… https://t.co/uZt4OoOjrA @Claudia_Sahm I expect the macroeconomic problems to persist well past any solution to the virus (and not sure we e… https://t.co/2GYBIc2RX2And, of course, the only way to address the supply shock (plus the demand shock and just about every shock) is to g… https://t.co/ypdVytD7zr @jeffreypclemens You don't think that negative interest rates would stop the pandemic?I have an open mind. Macro data will help a little (e.g., disposable personal income for April and May). Micro data… https://t.co/cWeUUq5QkrAgain, don't misunderstand, for some there is a demand shock and that is playing a role. Moreover to the degree tha… https://t.co/yirT1QIyz7Aggregating from personal experience is dangerous, but ask yourself: Are you spending less than you did before? Is… https://t.co/wRaJk7PnPrBut the bigger issue seems to be supply. It costs much more (in some cases infinitely more) to produce the goods an… https://t.co/A63dLcU5XlDisposable personal income in April & May may be higher than in February. To be clear, income has declined for som… https://t.co/lC4zTBIS03UI replaces >100% of income for the majority of unemployed (and is not subject to tax withholding). Families have g… https://t.co/Q4M9Qttr2oBut demand is likely a relatively smaller part of the story: Fiscal policy has been a massive positive demand shoc… https://t.co/5sSmZHMHhCNominal spending has fallen sharply. Should we think of this as demand or supply? Partly it is demand: some have… https://t.co/e65ih3DAV8The problem is that currently the CPI is massively biased downward because it does not adjust for quality deteriora… https://t.co/qmAk2uZ1ecNormally price changes would be the way to assess the relative magnitude of supply and demand. And the fact that th… https://t.co/PoQGNPlLf1Let's define terms: Demand shock: A reduction in consumption or investment caused by declining incomes, declining… https://t.co/V39Q6kYupiSome confusion on twitter about supply shocks vs. demand shocks. I think *likely* much more supply shock than dema… https://t.co/LKcfpUVPMJ
5/16
2020
@kathymulm This is de facto the real rate, adjusts for inflation. @twitscotty Because the Fed pays interest on reserves. You should think of reserves as effectively equivalent to is… https://t.co/ccvwhReNKUThe Fed doesn't make debt go away since its reserves pay interest and are effectively just like a T-bill. So you c… https://t.co/4qfPWAaqULThe best way to insure against longer-term fiscal risk is to issue more longer-term debt to lock in low interest ra… https://t.co/FyGMFJcmnN @M_C_Klein @sam_a_bell @ernietedeschi @rortybomb @Claudia_Sahm In fairness, if you think that having automatic stab… https://t.co/6uZGiYUKZVOne of the arguments I heard over the last few years against large deficits/debt was that it would leave us unprepa… https://t.co/bawpH0bhRC @sam_a_bell @rortybomb @Claudia_Sahm Yup. And passing items piecemeal doesn't make them any cheaper. We have many t… https://t.co/RTYSIk85e0
5/14
2020
.@jasonfurman: The difference between me and modern monetary theorists is that they think they found a universal id… https://t.co/4Q5pEEOfIJ
Retweeted by Jason Furman @sam_a_bell A rare lapse in judgment on your part.Alternative frame: restaurant reservations up infinity percent from their lows earlier this year. cc:… https://t.co/gZNyeIyX3L
5/13
2020
The US Administration is reportedly preparing to bar foreign graduates of US universities from staying here to work… https://t.co/1L4RX4HG8z
Retweeted by Jason Furman
5/12
2020
Ted Chiang's Exhalation, amazing short story collection by one of SF's best writers, only $4.99 as an ebook today https://t.co/YVVd0Uv2GG
Retweeted by Jason Furman @annalilharvey @jenniferdoleac @DianeSwonk I would like to say I had read that paper and was implementing it, but h… https://t.co/8tLlImdTX4 @Claesbengtsson1 Thanks, they are for 2020-Q4 over 2019-Q4, which is why I said growth "in" 2020 (see Table 3 from… https://t.co/JXHXixQE9I @Kadee_Russ @v_m_bennett @robseamans @JayCShambaugh @Econ_Sandy @RonnieChatterji @nirupama_rao Very much agree with that too.
5/10
2020
@Mitchell_JoshW @EconCharlie These are all good thoughts, but I don't think we're going to be anywhere close to a s… https://t.co/69wqPwysG8 @Kadee_Russ @v_m_bennett @robseamans @JayCShambaugh @Econ_Sandy @RonnieChatterji @nirupama_rao I think health news… https://t.co/BnalLU61tk @ProfJAParker @profsufi I said PPP a grant program, so noting gross costs not dispositive of anything. Was arguing… https://t.co/ww98LBytwHI did a thread on a broader discussion of this yesterday. https://t.co/X0KRvxGKLCA great thread that explains the econometric issues in the two papers on the effects of non pharmeceutical interven… https://t.co/PtecxVi1J3 @realdgray Would you rather have a nicer backdrop where you could hear Henry, Louisa and Felix shouting the backgro… https://t.co/7JdKC3SI5B @ThomasPHI2 And yet much of Twitter is confused and thinks the European system is large grants for businesses and w… https://t.co/xM9l94c7rg @ProfJAParker @profsufi I don’t like PPP because much of the money lost is on businesses that would already have be… https://t.co/mnxRuYGYSa
5/9
2020
@JimPethokoukis I prefer Stalin (biographies) @profsufi @ProfJAParker Regardless, the argument for TARP was not that it would make money. In fact, my worry about… https://t.co/VDgnltybO7 @profsufi @ProfJAParker I disagree with the two of you with some trepidation, the argument is something systematica… https://t.co/QGRfABqIft @profsufi @rodrikdani Think but not positive that the CBO estimate that TARP (ex housing grants) made money used “f… https://t.co/rdZKPbQ5VbMy goal had been to make it onto this feed. Now that I have I got its attention... https://t.co/3K9GSABwpDHonestly, the last month has been basically one big proof point for the “the stock market isn’t the economy” trope
Retweeted by Jason FurmanI don’t go as far as Anthony Fowler in thinking we should slow down social science research--the more of it and the… https://t.co/naGaoZdxOzThe broader lesson in all of this is that research on COVID is increasing incredibly rapidly and we see a lot of it… https://t.co/ywCpqy8JdxBut for now, I cannot say that the 1918 experience itself provides evidence that lockdowns today will help the econ… https://t.co/n27rRtlVcXNote, the new paper does not say there is any proof that these interventions were bad for the economy. It does not… https://t.co/dNUG4EkrRwThe new paper finds that “The effect on manufacturing employment of implementing three NPIs [non-pharmaceutical int… https://t.co/bz3lKx52OtThe three Harvard grad students replicated the results but also found that early/substantial interventions in 1918… https://t.co/nos0jVcLorThe paper has a credible methodology, was by good authors, reached a plausible conclusion, and was consistent with… https://t.co/Creu3JqASMSergio Correia @StephanLuck @emilverner released a striking paper in March finding the states that did more/earlier… https://t.co/pBYLwnVOpJThe Spanish flu may not provide evidence for the propositions that earlier/larger lockdowns have long-lasting econo… https://t.co/J0pt4MTDsx @JECDems I am a big fan of sci-fi, especially time travel. But I do try to distinguish between it and reality. cc: @CassSunstein @alandail BLS asks unemployed workers as part of their survey, see Table A-11 of this: https://t.co/fpIO1QZKVY https://t.co/Bu61UYFfq2To be clear, this is not a forecast. More jobs will be added if/when the virus is under control than just recallin… https://t.co/qpHLaozjqcEmployment has fallen by 25m in the last 2 months. That is 3X the 8.6m decline in the entire Great Recession. If a… https://t.co/q1Qa6XghZtThe last two months would be the second worst post-war recession even if all temporarily laid off were rehired and… https://t.co/wd5s5sawB8 @stanveuger Yes, net for those sectors. But gross of the nets.The bright nano-specs in today's jobs report: Computers and peripheral equipment: +800 Couriers and messengers: +1… https://t.co/bD37BdY9Jg @greg_ip Definitely Sweden's economy would have been seriously hurt even if its population was immune to the virus… https://t.co/M0MclAziwwCaveats: we don't know what economic growth will be this year, that is just a forecast with a huge error band. And… https://t.co/3rhRykiHkEWill Sweden's strategy work to grow its economy? The forecasters at the European Commission appear not to think so.… https://t.co/ru1VZTUHUt
5/8
2020

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