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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch Doncaster ➡️ London

Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Daily updates of the coronavirus trajectory tracker | | #dataviz

4,158 Following   316,251 Followers   50,940 Tweets

Joined Twitter 6/1/09

@EdConwaySky (they do add the denominator units as a note on their chart of testing rates, but not on the positivity rate one) @EdConwaySky Ah, the way OWID present that statistic is slightly misleading though: the denominator for Italy is pe… @JeremyFarrar @TimHarford Thanks Jeremy. I thought your piece in the Sunday Times was excellent. @chrischirp Indeed! @chrischirp The weekly numbers in the PHE surveillance reports, so not as granular but certainly robust. Back to e… @chrischirp Close to ONS, but I share @jamesannan’s misgivings over fitting of models to just 2 weeks’ data. And y… @bealelab @ONS Yup thanks, noted that in the replies to your original tweet. And yes the re-testing is just one of… when we see things like today’s fascinating @ONS breakdowns of Covid-19 prevalence & growth by deprivation, age… taken for @ONS tests are re-tested multiple times to make false positives extremely unlikely (one in tens o… infection survey: these tests are random, and designed to be representative of the overall population. Ther…• Pillar 2 community testing: these are the bulk of cases picked up at the moment. Case and positivity rates here *…’ve noticed a lot of people slipping up on how they interpret UK Covid-19 prevalence & testing data, so here’s a v… @VictimOfMaths @HeerJeet Absolutely — I remember these at the time, and indeed the ONS’ ASMRs also highlighted this point. @VictimOfMaths @HeerJeet And I’ve seen some research looking at infection rather than mortality which also suggeste… @VictimOfMaths @HeerJeet Yep, but age structure of most deprived areas is much younger than least-deprived, hence t… @HeerJeet @VictimOfMaths Thanks! @chuckberry3141 @VictimOfMaths Nope. This is the ONS serology survey. The testing is random. Completely separate fr… @HeerJeet @VictimOfMaths Very interesting, thanks!This is really interesting and not what you would necessarily expect.
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch @josephmdurso @TheAthleticUK Congrats — brilliant move!
@fcbfootballblog @sTeamTraen @drphilipdixon @BristOliver Yep that’s exactly how I believe it’s done (!)
@sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes Mystery solved: despite the claim ma… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes i.e they're a completely different s… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes I'd really avoid referring to Worldo… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes The weekends and 5 vs 7 do matter, b… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes These daily PDFs are where I've been… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes Also sorry not sure where you're get… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes Yep, but again: death registration l… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes My guess: • Death registrations lag… @sTeamTraen @phil_messenger @el_pais @EdConwaySky @BristOliver @AlistairHaimes It's certainly very odd, and as we b… @phil_messenger @sTeamTraen @el_pais @EdConwaySky Hi, this is a misinterpretation FYI. The figures shown are deaths… @JuliaLMarcus @mugecevik @drjenndowd FWIW we gave lots of prominence to that facet in the story:… @JuliaLMarcus Absolutely, but: @apsmunro @mastweiler8 @mugecevik Absolutely. But: @mugecevik Absolutely, and I totally agree that support is necessary, but those differences were between low adhere… @keithbelfast Indeed. Key workers were found to be more likely not to self-isolate than others.More shocking findings in the paper, such as "Keys reason given for not quarantining [after being contacted] inclu… doesn’t matter how much the capacity and availability of testing is increased, or how much the contact-tracing s… damning data on the complete failure to follow Covid-19 guidelines in the UK • Only 18% of people self-i… tier-2 contact-tracer (tougher-to-reach cases) just told me they're finding people citing the false positive rate…
Retweeted by John Burn-MurdochThis is a fantastic thread on what has been overlooked on the "debate" about pandemic strategy "Science" doesn't d…
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch
@xhgMattia *rate of -change- @xhgMattia At this stage, rate of chance is the single most important thing to show. Log scales do that best.
@AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @NewMumOnline @BristOliver Eyeballing some historical UK data, there have been lots of cas… @AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @NewMumOnline @BristOliver Yep sounds about right. I've been wondering about how nuances o… @AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @NewMumOnline @BristOliver Indeed, though I think we can also calculate that weekly, using… the "false positives on Covid tests mean that there's no evidence of a second wave" theory that's been going aro…
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch @NewMumOnline @AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @BristOliver Putting to one side the fact that that's completely untrue, I'd… @n_equals_42 @AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @NewMumOnline @BristOliver It's certainly possible: I've seen a few papers lo… @AlistairHaimes @alexkx3 @NewMumOnline @BristOliver I note you said "almost" always, but just FWIW, UK deaths this… @MattGarrahan Glad you're safe!
@DadosdeLaplace @ngbpadel2 Indeed, I had first-hand experience of that back in April... @ngbpadel2 @nosmhnmh Indeed, I’ve been a big fan of @ngbpadel2 for some time :-) @TomRugbyFan Also those weekly figures appear to be wrong for Spain @TomRugbyFan Weekly data is collated by ECDC, but daily data is what I’m after @PTTennis1 @pandsreid We essentially did that: we stopped updating the Spanish data in our charts while we waited f… @EvilDoctorK Ah that makes a lot of sense — thanks! @kikollan Got it, ta. What I’m struggling with is how the "last 24 hours" number in Table 4 is consistently higher… @lugaricano @jcyl @CiudadanosCs Thanks, I’ll take a look @Perbess @EvilDoctorK @covid19_m @FT Thanks :-) @pandsreid @PTTennis1 We’ve reported in great detail on Spain’s data issues several times @EvilDoctorK It’s baffling, and now that I look at it so are the Madrid numbers, e.g Thursday they say a cumulative… @nosmhnmh @mianrey I did back in April but haven’t refreshed them since, will take a look... @EvilDoctorK Seems to be a complete Madrid time series on page 5 here, but the national data either only starts ver… @nosmhnmh Thanks — I have the same figures as you, so the problem is: • "Currently in hospital" only goes back to A…’s their latest daily report, with hospitalisation figures on pages 2 and 4 plea for Covid data assistance: Spain’s hospitalisations data is an absolute mess (I for one am stunned), with a…
This week's Lunch with the @FT is with @MarcusRashford ⚽️💥 We discuss how a tweet became a winning food poverty ca…
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch @RuthWilk It’s a US publication aiming at a US audience so never going to be globally exhaustive, but I wouldn’t ar… @llewelyn_morgan @sundersays Ha! I made it 3... Yeah it’s a US publication aiming at a US audience, so never going… list of experts to follow on here for the latest science on all things Covid, from transmission risk to m… thread about latest ONS survey on covid and behaviour
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch
@maartenzam It has been in all our templates for several years 😎
New @UpshotNYT/@NYTimes thing to follow as we head toward November (you can even sign up for notifications): If y…
Retweeted by John Burn-MurdochAlways amazes me... the "everyone has to move and stay in London" story is nonsense. Literally none of the growth i…
Retweeted by John Burn-MurdochWe all spend a lot of time worrying that men will be disadvantaged by the partial return to offices so we made a sp…
Retweeted by John Burn-Murdoch
@derivadow @CentreforCities @lramuni Yes and yes: • Google publishes data at local authority level in the UK, inclu… @SparksMaths @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN @justsaysrisks Hi, the black numbers for trough and latest values implic… @Manu_CB Total number of jobs in that city/town @rowlsmanthorpe @lramuni @CentreforCities We have UK-wide data on international tourist numbers (and international… @damiankelly Footfall is up in the suburbs @GraceOnFootball @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN Thank you Grace finally I have closure
@joelwilliams74 Footfall in suburbs has gone up. @drjennings @jerrylatter @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN Ha! I initially had "smaller cities and towns" (to account f… @eleonorasfalcon @lennyvalentino Yep tourists a big factor for London, but that was 111m people-nights per year, wh… @arhomberg @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN I was in Brixton on Saturday and it was busy but definitely not back to no… @arhomberg @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN Footfall in Lambeth as a whole is still down 30% (slap bang on the London… @LizinEDI @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN That could certainly be part of it, but I don’t know nearly enough about th… @paul_237 @ChrisGiles_ @DanielThomasLDN Absolutely11/10 a belated but huge thanks here to @CentreforCities and @lramuni for sharing the city/town footfall data with…, this one was meant to come with an @undertheraedar image as well: The big question: is this a temporary blip that will spring back to normality post-Covid (whenever that may be)… Even if we zoom right into the very core of London — Cities of London & Westminster — a huge portion of its dail… ...but thanks to @undertheraedar, we know: Here’s where the "daytime population" (workers, schoolkids etc) come… Let’s look at the top-line numbers again: Almost every city or town saw an uptick in high street footfall over… That’s 100,000s of people who would usually be piling onto trains to spend time & money in city centres but are… People who usually walk or drive have been much more comfortable resuming their commute than those who take publ… But a bigger factor than what jobs people do is how they get to work, and how far they travel. The bulk of the… Workers in retail, hospitality can’t do their jobs remotely and have returned to the workplace. They’re popping…