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Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Strategy: A History (OUP). Latest book: The Future of War: A History (Penguin, UK, PublicAffairs US).

912 Following   38,956 Followers   30,765 Tweets

Joined Twitter 5/27/13


@Samfr My work is done @Samfr He's 20. (I never thought I could get the chance to correct you on trivial footballing detail ). @AlistairHaimes @richardvadon The latest SAGE minutes suggest that R had fallen to below 1 by end of March. @richardvadon Obviously made serious difference but hard to measure. Depends when you think lockdown occurred (on 1… https://t.co/JPJhurMB1W @richardvadon I have argued at length elsewhere that we were too slow but I wouldn't go this far. Two other factors… https://t.co/x6gKic59xI @richardvadon Actually only in part (mainly Berlin). Different Lander followed different policies. Testing undoubte… https://t.co/ZLemQs8a0QReally interesting. Challenges views of both government and its critics. Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may… https://t.co/OHOJdoLhmr
5/31
2020
@FADCLDN @b_judah @cszabla Only ethnic minority in Newcastle that i was aware of when i was growing up was Chinese. @FADCLDN @b_judah @cszabla Not all will. But plenty have ties, affinity with UK. @inthenorthofuk Just printing them off! @b_judah @cszabla I think you are right on this. I’m not sure how big the exodus will be in the short-term (esp bec… https://t.co/jpw7x8MsR7
5/29
2020
@michielhoefsmit @DanKaszeta I broke my own rule of not joining a conversation half way through @DanKaszeta @michielhoefsmit I thought you were still on Dido Harding @DanKaszeta @michielhoefsmit Its not. Her given name is Diana. @arothmanhistory Retire @ChrisGiles_ This seems very important point. 1) When you look at the UK hot spots are they worse than those of oth… https://t.co/SuCS9R9PhP
5/28
2020
@patricksturg @DrPhillipLee Indeed. We now agree. Also time for bed. Goodnight. @empfindlich1 @DrPhillipLee Do you mean UK? I think excess deaths give us an idea of likely scale of tragedy - but… https://t.co/bLgfVvQWy2 @patricksturg @DrPhillipLee As NUFC supporter may have sour view of league tables. Anyway there is not here a level… https://t.co/cTYPekRn3V @iamthedrifter Thank you Ayesha. Painful question. @diaz_clive @DrPhillipLee I think so too but Swedes not so sure. @patricksturg @DrPhillipLee Hopefully we do agree - I have an aversion to League Table approach to mortality.There… https://t.co/R9T3fiFGRi @diaz_clive @DrPhillipLee Hot spots - in UK are care homes coming down yet? Elsewhere Latin American states now com… https://t.co/DkCfcOgmnm @patricksturg @DrPhillipLee This is about league tables which is not the same thing. We know for example huge probl… https://t.co/F666eZjiBF @patricksturg @DrPhillipLee Comparing US and UK, eg, is pointless. Some states (NY) have far worse rates than UK ot… https://t.co/uCUkrWJISi @patricksturg @DrPhillipLee It does not make clear that this is at one point in time. We can make some useful granu… https://t.co/oRmE0P652H @DrPhillipLee This is a highly misleading headline. The UK numbers overall are awful and so are those of many other… https://t.co/ms0FzElcZO
5/25
2020
@RadioFreeTom @DanLamothe This is a grim story Tom. Condolences. @espionage2017 He is not an elected member of the government but he is a key figure in the government's work @espionage2017 The mess the government has got itself into. @Beachtrader1971 I suspect they'd recover. But this should have been knocked on head as soon as story came out. Lon… https://t.co/4upyerYXVD @TJishsh Who knows. Scandals come and go. I think this is difficult because Government has been asking a lot of eve… https://t.co/ivtxpM3qjk @defenseadvisers Curiously I was in Washington at the time. As I recall main reaction was incredulity that he had r… https://t.co/2BtXDDB4G5The only way out now is the tried and tested resignation letter - 'I did nothing wrong but I do not wish any contr… https://t.co/6DD94Lgu5I @CAJStewart It could apply to keyworkers who could still take kids to school @happy_layabout If that story can be verified (as opposed to probably being true). @CAJStewart But under heading of accessing child care as 'a critical public service' - otherwise my daughter could… https://t.co/2R4nAzzjTA @CAJStewart Unless I've missed something that comes under the heading of 'access critical public services' - not going to grandparents. @dembele_lionel i don't think you've been following my son's tweets on this issue ... @NewsCuckoo The PM defended it as being equivalent isolation to staying in London. @MarkEglinton Don't think this story is overI don't see how Johnson/Cummings gets round this: 'Essential travel does not include visits to second homes, camp s… https://t.co/Jx9358dXNs @cszabla @Panzerfrank @b_judah Yes. These are the ones who would most likely come. @Panzerfrank @b_judah @eucopresident @HeleneBismarck @cliodiaspora @guyverhofstadt Not either/or @Panzerfrank @b_judah @eucopresident We have an obligation @Panzerfrank @b_judah Wouldn’t be that many and we have an obligation. @b_judah I suspect they would be content to see ‘troublemakers’ out of Hong Kong. @b_judah Makes lots of sense economically and politically as well as morally.
5/24
2020
@FADCLDN @JeremyCliffe Which states did he have in mind? @FADCLDN @JeremyCliffe I admire Weber as a political sociologist. As he was a German imperialist and a poor politic… https://t.co/IHRWbYGABL @AndrewA_BeKind The risk category is — as I understand it - more about imminence than probability. Likely trigger w… https://t.co/GTgfL4AALd @AndrewA_BeKind Yes interesting from early Feb.‘ It is possible that there may already be unseen sustained transmis… https://t.co/Kjh7ggQkq1
5/23
2020
@PeterRNeumann Obviously methodologically prepared. Surprising you didn’t become more of a quant. @FHeisbourg Actually I doubt that there will be a lot of opposition to this @PeterRNeumann Did you do weather forecasts as well? @PeterRNeumann GoodnessI guess this is the sort if thing thst must make Brexiters feel good. Such a statement would not be possible coming… https://t.co/qZhxNVlA3M
Retweeted by Lawrence FreedmanI have looked up the sampling methodology of this poll. The methods used to market the opportunity to take part to… https://t.co/QqVAodBEFC
Retweeted by Lawrence Freedman @PeterRNeumann All these quarantine, test and trace etc measures only work when transmission rates low so limited e… https://t.co/p84ulDjXZx @JordiScrubbings I suspect its been doneOverkill, Assured Destruction, and the Search for Nuclear Alternatives: U.S. Nuclear Forces During the Cold War | N… https://t.co/IUoHLzWWY5 @Samfr Its a paper for SAGE not general public. Their website has other stuff including a Dutch study https://t.co/oYjZvi1XDQ @blue2win @shashj @delexical As you say cancellations happened anyway. If the epidemic had been taking a different… https://t.co/D80zjuVfVf @blue2win @shashj @delexical The argument was that if matches were played without crowds then they would be watched… https://t.co/SuiVvWbaPB @shashj @delexical I honestly don't think it ever drove policy. The issue of a second wave was - and is - a big iss… https://t.co/sEvc5ZrmxV @shashj @delexical The problem lay in keeping up with the pace of the virus and the public mood. Large events were… https://t.co/GghEjNcIJR @shashj @delexical I don't think it was that way round. At issue was whether worth banning large events while encou… https://t.co/TyrI0WGUPn @shashj @delexical Don't agree. Herd immunity was always an issue in the policy mix but policy was always driven by… https://t.co/sldmkOAYxB
5/22
2020
@steven_metz @zenpundit That started quite early. Anti-feminism became an obsession. @steven_metz @PeterDombrowsk6 Listen to your mother @steven_metz That sounds serious enough to get tested. @steven_metz Take care. @oneandonlymr0 @Samfr He's too clever for me @faisalislam @jmaiolo All countries, including UK have some regions more affected than others. What is less clear i… https://t.co/TpbIvOQnmK @Samfr Its exceptional. I was on the jury that awarded it the Gelber prize. @navalhistorian Yes I saw this. It is interesting.So much fascinating stuff in this report on C-19 and superspreading. Most people do not transmit. 10% cases respons… https://t.co/HXttk3QUYG
Retweeted by Lawrence Freedman @DoubleEph There is a lot of detail in the papers I have cited that a more expert eye than mine will understand. @AndrewA_BeKind See latest tweet @DoubleEph I don't know enough to analyse all the material. All the descriptions, inc from WHO, from January onward… https://t.co/AX9YOoDg3yHowever 'When patient characteristics are taken into account, no excess HDU/ICU admissions or deaths are seen in th… https://t.co/q5sf5sPLFpThis paper just put on SAGE web-site from 25 April on ethnicity and outcome may attract attention. Concludes 'Black… https://t.co/VPhhDBejaq @DavidNi61157349 See next tweethttps://t.co/E1tfPzxOVPI https://t.co/yjHcbRCN7eThe commonest comorbidity is chronic cardiac disease, reflecting patterns seen in other countries, although nearly… https://t.co/TKGozPnW3uThere are more men than women, consistent with reports from other countries. The proportion of pregnant women affec… https://t.co/bxzX99l2nvThere is a lot of detail in these reports but headlines are unsurprising: ‘Hot spots’ of disease incidence largely… https://t.co/UuanegjZdaThese are largely statistical analyses of cases rather than scientific advice. It is mainly updated versions of thi… https://t.co/ts3ZpVsFusLots of papers put on SAGE website - up to meeting on 12 May. haven't had a chance to review yet. https://t.co/HGre3t0fOII want to tell you a story about a mathematician you’ve probably never heard of, but whose work has helped shape a… https://t.co/W3tvMh9vix
Retweeted by Lawrence Freedman
5/20
2020
So excited about our project on pro-social behaviours during Covid-19 and beyond. In partnership with… https://t.co/t1nSX5ggYe
Retweeted by Lawrence FreedmanInteresting first 'lessons' from science and technology committee. Focuses on lack of testing strategy in March and… https://t.co/6MZnbVBvYa
5/19
2020
@FADCLDN Its not. Its never wise to join in a twitter discussion half way through. @KGWhite2020 @APHClarkson @PeterRNeumann I’m using a well-established German concept from Prof M Weber. @calder_walton @PeterRNeumann While reporters try to work out if he is actually so stupid or just pretending some o… https://t.co/jFKZsXB1us @PeterRNeumann Hard to know where to start with this. @APHClarkson @PeterRNeumann Yes. C-19 exponential now. Its very dangerous. @APHClarkson @PeterRNeumann Stability/order is always a matter of degree. Great economic crises can knock all state… https://t.co/HWNOWPDA0v @PeterRNeumann @APHClarkson I suspect it will hold together and I believe it will be for the best if it does. (incl… https://t.co/t6cht5rzLl
5/18
2020

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