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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn New York, NY

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

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Joined Twitter 1/14/12

With all of that cause for humility in mind, the assumptions underpinning the opinion piece cited at the outset are…, I don't think we're going to resolve these questions to the extent we could in prior elections, even… think we have every reason to assume they were off by a lot on older voters. But we don't have proof of that, and… we that's only what we know about, based on the limited, exact data I mentioned earlier. We have no idea whethe… know the national surveys were off by 4 points or so. Worse, we have reason to believe they're off in very speci…, most of the exacting analysis is done with pre-election survey data! Unfortunately, this year's pre-electi…, this is a terrible, terrible year for survey data. The exit polls have always been bad and inappropr… really have no hard, exact data that tells us about shifts among these groups. To figure this stuff out--and tbh… there are actually a lot of things we can't say with this data. Age and gender are two great examples. They're… this data, we can see that Biden gained in well-educated suburbs, and especially traditionally GOP ones like A… have *some* precise data. We have exact results by county and precinct. We have voter file turnout data of varyi…'re talking about, what, a ~2 pt swing nationwide and in many of the critical battleground states? Without fantas…, the election outcome is quite a bit different than in 2016--at least for the purposes of determining con… see a lot of talk about this article, and I don't think it's really worth any attention my part. I will take this…
None of these are Detroit, which had 49% turnout. They're not even in Michigan. They're Minnesota--google them! Now… since many of you are too lazy to do the prescribed google searches, let me help you president of a very large country in North America said it, among others, and it's not true for registered vote… we had an election where every state had photo ID, in-person voting, and reported all of its results at once we… can keep going here. The point is that the case for 'fraud' is so bad that it's quite clear it only exists for on…'ve got folks convinced there's something strange about 'vote dumps'--AKA, populous jurisdictions reporting thei…'ve got folks convinced that there were fewer mail ballot requests than mail votes in Pennsylvania. A google sea…'ve got folks convinced that there were more votes than people in Detroit. All you have to do is do is google se… evidence for a 'rigged' election is so preposterous as of late that it's difficult to argue that any series of…, btw, that Philadelphia, Wayne, Milawukee and DeKalb counties all stand out for... below average increases in Biden vote talliesAnd to be clear, this is in raw votes--in many cases, the biggest increases are high population growth areas where… seems that their figures are from... the wrong election mailed out more than 3 million absentee ballots. This was known to everyone, including the Trump campa… possibility is that Pennsylvania committed extremely brazen and obvious election fraud, unbeknownst to everyone…
The biggest top-of-ticket underperformance by any House incumbent in the country? Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). Results in…
Retweeted by Nate Cohn
@jbarro Belle is an Obama—> clinton—> trump voter
@Bakari_Sellers @UpshotNYT the black share of the electorate dropped in georgia; i'm aware of no evidence to the contrary. @Dylan_Sandas @MattBruenig They counted their mail absentee vote since whenever you last looked @SawyerHackett Here's an '08-20 won the 'tipping point' by 5.3 pts or whatever, while Biden won his by .6, and many online Bernie folks were doing the same thing in the 2016 primary. It also reminds me that this is… out the discontinuity along the MO-AR border on the 12-16 shift and the lack of a discontinuity on the 12-20… tense here is a relatively clear acknowledgment of the state of the evidence as it stands now @KBAndersen new york has a lot of democratic-leaning absentee ballots left to count. this could change a lotThe 2016-2020 swing is barely even worth mention on the 2012-2016 scale, at least outside of heavily Latino areas a… of this swing occurs from 2012-2016, with relative stability between 2016 and 2020 now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama's 3.86 pt win in 20… @tbonier @DanRosenheck i agree, and said the same thing in 2016. but it's worse this time. this was a higher turnou… @tbonier @DanRosenheck (and for a similar reason, i do disagree with your tweet about DET from earlier. dems weren'… @tbonier @DanRosenheck i don't think of it as an indictment of black turnout. i do think it's an indictment of a st… @tbonier @DanRosenheck but i don't think your characterization here on the unknowns is accurate: your above content… @tbonier @DanRosenheck i definitely think i should have said the same of white voters (did on twitter), and intende… @aaronhuertas @tbonier @DanRosenheck you're following correctly, but the decline in the black share of the voters e… @tbonier @DanRosenheck I might have missed something but no I don’t think i disagree with their finding at all @tbonier @DanRosenheck all of the evidence at my disposal suggests the 'unknown' aren't disproportionately black, l… @AnonVAPerson @tbonier @DanRosenheck it's just leaving it blank. people of all races do it
This time though, I'm not sure the Democrats can blame themselves. This was a referendum on Trump, and even if Clin… of the challenges identified for Democrats in their 2016 post-mortem still hold today: the Trump-Obama vote; s… a result, Biden's gains came in many of the same places that Clinton surged in four years ago: traditionally Rep…, Biden wound up winning in a way that I think many post-2016 post-mortems allowed as a possibility, but tha… most of all, this theory assumed--implicitly--that all Dems needed to do was win 2016, as the president had max… evidence never really matched this theory IMO, but it looks even worse today. The black share of the electorate… second theory was that Trump won because of a bad progressive, youth, and nonwhite (but especially Black) turnout… lot of the data preelection suggested Biden did have some success there, but it's really, really hard to see the… theory was that Trump won by flipping white, working class Obama voters, and therefore Dems needed to lure them… were basically two major diagnoses for Clinton's win--and two main arguments for how Dems should win going fo… interesting thing about this election is the extent that the 2016 post-mortems and subsequent arguments for how… Michigan as a whole cast 115% of its 2016 vote or so, and it's not like Clinton's raw margin in Detroit was any…
Retweeted by Nate CohnTrue, this would eliminate 'dumps,' but it would give rise to a new set of conspiracy theories. At a certain point,…'s particularly remarkable in this case because the jurisdiction in question--Milwaukee--was transparent about ho… 'vote dumps,' OTOH, are an inevitable artifact of how jurisdiction reports their votes in batches, rather than… mail voting, for instance. If you wanted to restore the credibility of the electoral process, you could elimin… thing that's most dispiriting about the 'vote dump' charts (which purport to show irregularities, but just show… Upshot NFL playoff simulator is back, and after extensive analysis it finds that this SEA-AZ game is pretty imp… since a surprising number of you dispute that this was so at the time @TreatDevourer @AdamCohen538 the number of absentee ballots in Milwaukee was known preelection. honestly I stopped… @AdamCohen538 GA/AZ weren't definite--though wisconsin was. you can look at my feed at the time @eazystormborn @bronxbaumer a call indicates that you believe there's a ~100% chance of an outcome. i thought biden… @bronxbaumer no, I rejected the call—it was my determinationAt the time, yes, I thought Biden was pretty clear favored. In retrospect, I was wrong about that—and I was against… was clear by 3AM or so on Election Night that we were probably headed to Biden at 306, and the 2020 gods have pu…
The president won more votes in Detroit than he did in 2016, while Biden won fewer votes than Clinton. The turnout… Biden will still be the president, despite attempts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's not so hard… @jbarro I definitely think that's a factor, especially in the blue checkmark crowd. But I also think there are a lo… while you're entitled to be a SEA fan who ignores boring defensive personnel moves and basks in Wilson, you abso… to figure out how to create or undo change is the basically the whole goal of electoral strategy. It determi… fan can basically choose to ignore the fact that the Seahawks GM can pencil in Wilson at QB and work to improve o… although Mr. Wilson might not like it, change is the most important consideration when we talk about strategy--… all, Russell Wilson would be pretty miffed if he could only make headlines when he stepped up to throw a sixt… my coverage, I almost always focus on change--and there are good reasons why, at least good to my satisfaction.… can frame the same thing two very different ways. If you're writing the story of how did Biden win Georgia, may… winds up leading to some takes that seem odd. In Georgia, it's quite clear that shifts among white voters are…'s a fairly straightforward reason for that: partisanship. Candidates inherit the loyalties of voters. If ther… electoral analysis, that's definitely not how we'd cover it. We'd say that the Seattle defense made huge strides… a football game. If a few weeks ago, Seattle loses to football game, 42-35, and then a few weeks later, Seattl… thing that's fairly unique about election analysis--and that rubs people the wrong way, I think--is the emphasi…
(or if you prefer, where the top of the Dem ticket did worse than Biden)I will say that the huge GOP turnout in rural GA in the 2018 midterm elections does make me think this factor may n… this is a huge question, especially given the... flaws of the GOP candidates. It's also one that's harder to ev… usually don't think fundraising is a great measure to watch--just ask Senator-elect Harrison--but Dem fundraising…, IDK. I think it's hard to avoid concluding that the GOP is favored by some amount, simply because R Sen candida… unlike cases where the president-elect's party holds so much power that they don't have much to fight for, the… think that's definitely a possibility. But in the scheme of cases where a party flips to out of power, this is...… big thing the GOP is counting on, IMO, is a big shift in the national environment toward the GOP, as they now i… I think the new dynamics, post-2020 general, are ... murky? Trump is still dominating the news. GOP is out ther…