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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn New York, NY

I write for The New York Times at @UpshotNYT. I cover elections, polling, and demographics. Northwest expat.

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Joined Twitter 1/14/12


With all of that cause for humility in mind, the assumptions underpinning the opinion piece cited at the outset are… https://t.co/JNv1tVF3c4Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to resolve these questions to the extent we could in prior elections, even… https://t.co/cg9yaQOMQHI think we have every reason to assume they were off by a lot on older voters. But we don't have proof of that, and… https://t.co/mB6Cc5mwoNBut we that's only what we know about, based on the limited, exact data I mentioned earlier. We have no idea whethe… https://t.co/5pUV4CBJ2pWe know the national surveys were off by 4 points or so. Worse, we have reason to believe they're off in very speci… https://t.co/Jx9nlJIVmPUsually, most of the exacting analysis is done with pre-election survey data! Unfortunately, this year's pre-electi… https://t.co/mAg0H7sZ0PUnfortunately, this is a terrible, terrible year for survey data. The exit polls have always been bad and inappropr… https://t.co/mwgBL8htJEWe really have no hard, exact data that tells us about shifts among these groups. To figure this stuff out--and tbh… https://t.co/Pjx6DCc6HdBut there are actually a lot of things we can't say with this data. Age and gender are two great examples. They're… https://t.co/8KP65BlitdWith this data, we can see that Biden gained in well-educated suburbs, and especially traditionally GOP ones like A… https://t.co/oI2DDIXjhQWe have *some* precise data. We have exact results by county and precinct. We have voter file turnout data of varyi… https://t.co/bEvuA4SNA9We're talking about, what, a ~2 pt swing nationwide and in many of the critical battleground states? Without fantas… https://t.co/gOO4ASA2g4Obviously, the election outcome is quite a bit different than in 2016--at least for the purposes of determining con… https://t.co/NFPc8597IrI see a lot of talk about this article, and I don't think it's really worth any attention my part. I will take this… https://t.co/jZNAAplAnX
11/29
2020
None of these are Detroit, which had 49% turnout. They're not even in Michigan. They're Minnesota--google them! Now… https://t.co/dfuJ7Gz9ZxBut since many of you are too lazy to do the prescribed google searches, let me help you https://t.co/QUavvDGJwMThe president of a very large country in North America said it, among others, and it's not true for registered vote… https://t.co/JHM89aLqhGIf we had an election where every state had photo ID, in-person voting, and reported all of its results at once we… https://t.co/DkM5bsDgVeI can keep going here. The point is that the case for 'fraud' is so bad that it's quite clear it only exists for on… https://t.co/9cFdqNFEjhYou've got folks convinced there's something strange about 'vote dumps'--AKA, populous jurisdictions reporting thei… https://t.co/y6bKreM0TCYou've got folks convinced that there were fewer mail ballot requests than mail votes in Pennsylvania. A google sea… https://t.co/rpbMJ1gcKPYou've got folks convinced that there were more votes than people in Detroit. All you have to do is do is google se… https://t.co/dptpJpCsMnThe evidence for a 'rigged' election is so preposterous as of late that it's difficult to argue that any series of… https://t.co/gQqhEVlyq9Notice, btw, that Philadelphia, Wayne, Milawukee and DeKalb counties all stand out for... below average increases in Biden vote talliesAnd to be clear, this is in raw votes--in many cases, the biggest increases are high population growth areas where… https://t.co/fL1jOEKzUNIt seems that their figures are from... the wrong election https://t.co/gZpB6IVEBTPennsylvania mailed out more than 3 million absentee ballots. This was known to everyone, including the Trump campa… https://t.co/AfwL7pObqlOne possibility is that Pennsylvania committed extremely brazen and obvious election fraud, unbeknownst to everyone… https://t.co/v5aplcREnc
11/28
2020
The biggest top-of-ticket underperformance by any House incumbent in the country? Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). Results in… https://t.co/UTxLN2ZtpM
Retweeted by Nate Cohn
11/25
2020
@jbarro Belle is an Obama—> clinton—> trump voter
11/23
2020
@Bakari_Sellers @UpshotNYT the black share of the electorate dropped in georgia; i'm aware of no evidence to the contrary. @Dylan_Sandas @MattBruenig They counted their mail absentee vote since whenever you last looked @SawyerHackett Here's an '08-20 https://t.co/kkPifYSCRlObama won the 'tipping point' by 5.3 pts or whatever, while Biden won his by .6 https://t.co/CrdfAUNdgTYeah, and many online Bernie folks were doing the same thing in the 2016 primary. It also reminds me that this is… https://t.co/IV694AXGUTCheck out the discontinuity along the MO-AR border on the 12-16 shift and the lack of a discontinuity on the 12-20… https://t.co/V7C6IOyx0nThe tense here is a relatively clear acknowledgment of the state of the evidence as it stands now https://t.co/wK5RAnsPnQ @KBAndersen new york has a lot of democratic-leaning absentee ballots left to count. this could change a lotThe 2016-2020 swing is barely even worth mention on the 2012-2016 scale, at least outside of heavily Latino areas a… https://t.co/9qkAkDLFUYMost of this swing occurs from 2012-2016, with relative stability between 2016 and 2020 https://t.co/czD4zfOKiEBiden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama's 3.86 pt win in 20… https://t.co/jie3YkV66R @tbonier @DanRosenheck i agree, and said the same thing in 2016. but it's worse this time. this was a higher turnou… https://t.co/MX90vtFQ0y @tbonier @DanRosenheck (and for a similar reason, i do disagree with your tweet about DET from earlier. dems weren'… https://t.co/5JGFDJmAs5 @tbonier @DanRosenheck i don't think of it as an indictment of black turnout. i do think it's an indictment of a st… https://t.co/kk0lewB42H @tbonier @DanRosenheck but i don't think your characterization here on the unknowns is accurate: your above content… https://t.co/1nq4AX3xqF @tbonier @DanRosenheck i definitely think i should have said the same of white voters (did on twitter), and intende… https://t.co/scrLLZSjcB @aaronhuertas @tbonier @DanRosenheck you're following correctly, but the decline in the black share of the voters e… https://t.co/qun6BlEnrZ @tbonier @DanRosenheck I might have missed something but no I don’t think i disagree with their finding at all @tbonier @DanRosenheck all of the evidence at my disposal suggests the 'unknown' aren't disproportionately black, l… https://t.co/0U0mXNR1pY @AnonVAPerson @tbonier @DanRosenheck it's just leaving it blank. people of all races do it
11/21
2020
This time though, I'm not sure the Democrats can blame themselves. This was a referendum on Trump, and even if Clin… https://t.co/m70P26IZWxMany of the challenges identified for Democrats in their 2016 post-mortem still hold today: the Trump-Obama vote; s… https://t.co/08dAr8T8tJAs a result, Biden's gains came in many of the same places that Clinton surged in four years ago: traditionally Rep… https://t.co/0e2WFqUKFLInstead, Biden wound up winning in a way that I think many post-2016 post-mortems allowed as a possibility, but tha… https://t.co/8HarZJ5aRlAnd most of all, this theory assumed--implicitly--that all Dems needed to do was win 2016, as the president had max… https://t.co/67PklIvRL9The evidence never really matched this theory IMO, but it looks even worse today. The black share of the electorate… https://t.co/KoXYnw5lDCA second theory was that Trump won because of a bad progressive, youth, and nonwhite (but especially Black) turnout… https://t.co/uOq1kNOtNaA lot of the data preelection suggested Biden did have some success there, but it's really, really hard to see the… https://t.co/9rQLi8YGRkOne theory was that Trump won by flipping white, working class Obama voters, and therefore Dems needed to lure them… https://t.co/KSudJ4EWOPThere were basically two major diagnoses for Clinton's win--and two main arguments for how Dems should win going fo… https://t.co/qp7V1OMM1VOne interesting thing about this election is the extent that the 2016 post-mortems and subsequent arguments for how… https://t.co/ow8xr24wWEBut Michigan as a whole cast 115% of its 2016 vote or so, and it's not like Clinton's raw margin in Detroit was any… https://t.co/WqdyMCF6Ov
Retweeted by Nate CohnTrue, this would eliminate 'dumps,' but it would give rise to a new set of conspiracy theories. At a certain point,… https://t.co/Hc4u60ed1OIt's particularly remarkable in this case because the jurisdiction in question--Milwaukee--was transparent about ho… https://t.co/sYggKZE6zEThe 'vote dumps,' OTOH, are an inevitable artifact of how jurisdiction reports their votes in batches, rather than… https://t.co/BYqECFVfTCTake mail voting, for instance. If you wanted to restore the credibility of the electoral process, you could elimin… https://t.co/6r9iscwgHBThe thing that's most dispiriting about the 'vote dump' charts (which purport to show irregularities, but just show… https://t.co/AK0KERTXmxThe Upshot NFL playoff simulator is back, and after extensive analysis it finds that this SEA-AZ game is pretty imp… https://t.co/atB5i4SosmAnd since a surprising number of you dispute that this was so at the time https://t.co/d3AOplC6kM @TreatDevourer @AdamCohen538 the number of absentee ballots in Milwaukee was known preelection. honestly I stopped… https://t.co/vdaSAd2LGu @AdamCohen538 GA/AZ weren't definite--though wisconsin was. you can look at my feed at the time @eazystormborn @bronxbaumer a call indicates that you believe there's a ~100% chance of an outcome. i thought biden… https://t.co/TjLm3cZT3d @bronxbaumer no, I rejected the call—it was my determinationAt the time, yes, I thought Biden was pretty clear favored. In retrospect, I was wrong about that—and I was against… https://t.co/97dUHhCCjBIt was clear by 3AM or so on Election Night that we were probably headed to Biden at 306, and the 2020 gods have pu… https://t.co/VRfMQvhBTZBreaking https://t.co/E8dIBpQXCm
11/20
2020
The president won more votes in Detroit than he did in 2016, while Biden won fewer votes than Clinton. The turnout… https://t.co/NDpeKASJbJJoe Biden will still be the president, despite attempts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's not so hard… https://t.co/OZ6EL6abgN @jbarro I definitely think that's a factor, especially in the blue checkmark crowd. But I also think there are a lo… https://t.co/HF5IA9rCKxSo while you're entitled to be a SEA fan who ignores boring defensive personnel moves and basks in Wilson, you abso… https://t.co/KICyJoIVhRTrying to figure out how to create or undo change is the basically the whole goal of electoral strategy. It determi… https://t.co/hmunojXH0sA fan can basically choose to ignore the fact that the Seahawks GM can pencil in Wilson at QB and work to improve o… https://t.co/sUCS2PIY2FBut although Mr. Wilson might not like it, change is the most important consideration when we talk about strategy--… https://t.co/2sM6CSanRPAfter all, Russell Wilson would be pretty miffed if he could only make headlines when he stepped up to throw a sixt… https://t.co/A5mNX9wBWgIn my coverage, I almost always focus on change--and there are good reasons why, at least good to my satisfaction.… https://t.co/lzF8WDGfV0You can frame the same thing two very different ways. If you're writing the story of how did Biden win Georgia, may… https://t.co/iuB5ODlySHThis winds up leading to some takes that seem odd. In Georgia, it's quite clear that shifts among white voters are… https://t.co/2wzvXj7bTeThere's a fairly straightforward reason for that: partisanship. Candidates inherit the loyalties of voters. If ther… https://t.co/SuiHKuM9xuIn electoral analysis, that's definitely not how we'd cover it. We'd say that the Seattle defense made huge strides… https://t.co/BoulXAC6DoTake a football game. If a few weeks ago, Seattle loses to football game, 42-35, and then a few weeks later, Seattl… https://t.co/OTvClwS6DZOne thing that's fairly unique about election analysis--and that rubs people the wrong way, I think--is the emphasi… https://t.co/15RdHmuYhW
11/19
2020
(or if you prefer, where the top of the Dem ticket did worse than Biden)I will say that the huge GOP turnout in rural GA in the 2018 midterm elections does make me think this factor may n… https://t.co/mPEJUf228OAnd this is a huge question, especially given the... flaws of the GOP candidates. It's also one that's harder to ev… https://t.co/Yui3AY4BTAI usually don't think fundraising is a great measure to watch--just ask Senator-elect Harrison--but Dem fundraising… https://t.co/n88pYGgyKMSo, IDK. I think it's hard to avoid concluding that the GOP is favored by some amount, simply because R Sen candida… https://t.co/ZqhUecXP67And unlike cases where the president-elect's party holds so much power that they don't have much to fight for, the… https://t.co/su4rx70EVEI think that's definitely a possibility. But in the scheme of cases where a party flips to out of power, this is...… https://t.co/NOc3ghQUVSThe big thing the GOP is counting on, IMO, is a big shift in the national environment toward the GOP, as they now i… https://t.co/UC9lkim1M8And I think the new dynamics, post-2020 general, are ... murky? Trump is still dominating the news. GOP is out ther… https://t.co/c63JGiRnDu
11/18
2020

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