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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

1,134 Following   3,194,752 Followers   21,649 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/27/08


It's too early to know what to make of the BuzzFeed story, but it does seem like, dating all the way back to 2016,… https://t.co/t3APUnPWvMI can’t speak to Buzzfeed’s sourcing, but, for what it’s worth, I declined to run with parts of the narrative they… https://t.co/rVimBbKwmW
Retweeted by Nate SilverIt‘s possible to parse the Mueller team’s wording here, but they’re clearly saying at least some of the story is wr… https://t.co/1no7CaDjPh
Retweeted by Nate SilverMueller’s team almost never comments on anything, but BuzzFeed reports that it is calling BuzzFeed’s Cohen story “n… https://t.co/AdoXGKFDsl
Retweeted by Nate Silver
1/19
2019
I'll admit that intuitively, it feels very, very weak, but it's just a bet that, in the long run, everyone will for… https://t.co/jqZlaFBOhMJust giving up and taking the loss might be his best move, politically. Or maybe not but I think you could make a p… https://t.co/syQmLM4kZ3My apologies. Those are actually the lyrics to a Counting Crows song, not a Beto livejournal post.Not so fast—looks like Beto just posted another one. https://t.co/7mp5OXC9T5 https://t.co/kx369Mh2y4The Suborn Identity The Suborn Supremacy The Suborn Ultimatum The Suborn Legacy Jason Suborn Suborn Perjury https://t.co/sWRXo5CguC
Retweeted by Nate SilverThey also say there's a 40% chance that Trump will fail to complete his first term; that number had already been ri… https://t.co/fQorh08MAEPrediction markets, which may or may not be useful for this sort of thing, now say there's a 60% chance that Trump… https://t.co/Lm5LqSKt2VMy original #HOF model was inspired by @FiveThirtyEight. Today I wrote about it there: https://t.co/Qi75nNNpIs
Retweeted by Nate SilverNot that hard to say: "It was a huge, major story. It certainly needed to be covered. With hindsight, we can see ho… https://t.co/EZ9ehR9PVUWhy do reporters/editors still try to dunk on people with this weak shit? Nobody says Clinton's email server is t… https://t.co/uAsLrSth3u @mattyglesias Matt do you know what a "heuristic" is @aravosis It's never going to be easy to exactly know the reasons. But, yeah, I tend to see the Russia news as more… https://t.co/uaLXFFYAFdYou could *maybe* make the case that Trump's approval rating decline is accelerating a bit. Starting to see more po… https://t.co/8oAZktQrAT
1/18
2019
Agree with much of this from @niaCNN. Like, I don't think Gillibrand could be using this rollout strategy. But: Be… https://t.co/5PLOdGtBwWHey, listeners of the @538politics podcast, join our personality test group! https://t.co/LrIcucFqrQ https://t.co/TB2SGSm5YM
Retweeted by Nate Silver @mattyglesias Bernie's favorables among African-Americans are generally good/fine. But this isn't a good poll to te… https://t.co/71DfsM39EpThe infield shift isn't really working anymore. https://t.co/SZkJ7IuwJbSo while Trump's campaign manager (Parscale) is claiming—contradicting all evidence from public polling—that intern… https://t.co/5904QYhnQaSemi-related: Giuliani said the following yesterday, which isn't true in general but MAY be true for Trump. "First… https://t.co/CV2QEQQ0hWNot a competitive seat but still not a great sign for the GOP that folks are already resigning. https://t.co/Wf6Jt2pq9aHappy to report @BenLindbergh & I have finished writing The MVP Machine (spring'19). We learned so much in reportin… https://t.co/knjxUFURCV
Retweeted by Nate SilverThe politics podcast team makes the case for why Kirsten Gillibrand will — and won’t — be the Democratic nominee in… https://t.co/9E3bvXiMd9
Retweeted by Nate SilverEspecially since the guy he hired to run his re-election campaign seems to encourage that tendency. https://t.co/jfofUNaWkGThere's a real possibility that Trump's tendency to ignore polls he doesn't like will cost him re-election. https://t.co/2kavbJxf7GA fairly reliable heuristic: The more power Jared Kushner has over White House decisions, the dumber those decision… https://t.co/1qubOP9MGqThere shouldn’t be much doubt that the shutdown is behind the negative turn in Trump’s numbers.… https://t.co/mCtfxPXpKh
Retweeted by Nate Silver @mattyglesias Maybe he thinks running for president would make for a cool life experience and an even better Livejournal.Steve King has a long of history of making racist comments and aligning himself with white supremacist causes, so w… https://t.co/XAMtUuNPp7
Retweeted by Nate SilverTo *some* extent, these cycles tend to even out over time. (Although, FWIW, it seems like it takes less for women c… https://t.co/2itiDCzqmLI think mostly it would just be good if reporters & editors acknowledged that the coverage of particular candidates… https://t.co/4pY0Me2OesThe case for: —No sign of an end to the shutdown, and it's the longest shutdown ever, so past precedent not hugely… https://t.co/5uQAwLgudRThe case against: —Shutdowns tend to have short-lived effects on e.g. approval ratings —Too early for approval rati… https://t.co/EgjFCz6LKvOK, finally had to write about the political implications of the shutdown. It's clearly hurting Trump’s approval ra… https://t.co/WpmDq0UdKz
1/17
2019
Nate is right. In The Gamble, @vavreck and I talked about how media "discovery" of a candidate (who in many case th… https://t.co/AtGBhgeZkn
Retweeted by Nate SilverI agree that coverage should be critical. But I read a lot of stories about political candidates and they vary in t… https://t.co/map0FwJY1mIt's hard to know without seeing the whole interview. He seems like he's rambling more than anything else. A few "I… https://t.co/3PLavVr3UdTrump might kill both the televised State of the Union *and* the White House Correspondents' Dinner, the two most t… https://t.co/fX9HBVGame @ForecasterEnten It could more precisely have been described as a motel.ANOTHER HUGE GAFFE: Beto described this hotel as having "Mid-century" design when its style could more precisely be… https://t.co/9dyJ9SDIZcBeato O'Kerouac https://t.co/9W87gEr7hK @katherinemiller I feel like a lot of journalists have this personalty type.Not sure if I agree with this personality assessment. https://t.co/B2iJLRTNV8 https://t.co/xKpnkL4kr8My latest for @FiveThirtyEight: Will James Harden's Hot Streak Burn Him Out? https://t.co/OvMv870b1b
Retweeted by Nate SilverNow, there's a good chance his approval rating bounces back when (if?) the shutdown ends. But it's fairly hard for… https://t.co/3kWhx0hiDXTrump's net approval rating has now declined from -10.5 to -14.5 over the course of the shutdown. It's not an enorm… https://t.co/VnagnO0wKDThis is absolutely healthy mindset and it makes me think that Conan is better-adjusted than almost anyone who has a… https://t.co/gJ5LUdanug
Retweeted by Nate Silver @micahcohen @skoczela @FiveThirtyEight You're lucky that I'm only a 27 on negative emotionality. @jbview We could easily wind up with say "only" 8 "real" candidates, plus another 4-5 tokenish ones (e.g. Gabbard,… https://t.co/nKmPuJCoFE @micahcohen @skoczela @FiveThirtyEight Quit steteroNateing me dude. I might not have the highest agreeableness scor… https://t.co/mg6hbmRoWg…in part because of the dumb Franken narrative, and she was polling at 1-2%. Traditionally, that might translate in… https://t.co/n83GQZ7dYsGillibrand's an interesting case because she's someone you might expect *not* to run. On the one hand, she has a pr… https://t.co/S5qZz2fbd9Ehhh... the drop-outs, per the @smotus spreadsheet, are Patrick (a "real" candidate, but don't think he was a top-t… https://t.co/P5enTUrHdjClearly enough, though, something seems to have changed in the calculation candidates are making. Maybe the digital… https://t.co/wlHF8GSTycThere are *some* disincentives: —Voters in your state might not like it —Might anger people in your party who pref… https://t.co/zanDgoIqRRThe most evidence-based clickbait you'll see all week, courtesy me and @juruwolfe https://t.co/G3B5plKELA
Retweeted by Nate SilverIt's also becoming clear how little of a deterrent effect the traditional frontrunners (Biden, Bernie), and to some… https://t.co/RJEJX8mehe @ForecasterEnten N64 for life dude.But it's also just the cycles that media coverage takes in the primaries, which sometimes entrenches frontrunner st… https://t.co/d5068HFH1RI think O'Rourke looks worse by comparison now that several credible candidates have declared officially and have capabale comms teams.That seems like a weird interpretation of Beto's quote, but one thing for sure is that Beto's media coverage is tur… https://t.co/tm4qjgJikLMost personality quizzes are junk science. Take one that isn’t --> https://t.co/lXW3ROjj9v
Retweeted by Nate Silver @ShaneGoldmacher FWIW, I would contrast that with something like the Elizabeth Warren DNA test, which for better or… https://t.co/L0ncJv0fgE @ShaneGoldmacher He's mentioned in our story too. I'm just saying: how much rank-and-file Democrats care about the… https://t.co/nmf4GfQEYnIt's definitely a part of the conversation, but let's keep in mind that the NYT, and frankly even (to a lesser magn… https://t.co/L7GkFkAaIHA lot of the Franken-related tweets (maybe ~60% of the well-retweeted ones?) are supportive of Gillibrand, though. https://t.co/bTISTm9qri @ComfortablySmug It worked for President Rubio so not a surprise that Democrats are trying to emulate the strategy.… https://t.co/MOrZbFhweB
1/16
2019
But, that comes after she had a pretty moderate record when she was a House member from Upstate New York. Maybe it'… https://t.co/Wz1BvwVgARHow Kirsten Gillibrand could win the 2020 Democratic primary: https://t.co/N5o3ScYOEy
Retweeted by Nate SilverGillibrand has the most anti-Trump voting record of any Democratic senator. https://t.co/KO8vWSoYIr @ollie This sort of got me thinking about what if Donald Trump used the Frosted Flakes logo for his re-election bid… https://t.co/TfRG45DQU4OK, some context here. Although, maybe Klobuchar was going to use the logo and now she can't because people will ma… https://t.co/Y2GT1rzjBy @ollie It would be great if she were running for chancellor of some canton of Switzerland.This is a picture of the highest point in Minnesota: https://t.co/C7d1qt5JYzMinnesota is the 5th-flattest state: https://t.co/6CqmXblkHu https://t.co/2kr7sKuV0oHow my brain interprets every Brexit explainer: https://t.co/7smQVKMP76Maybe in “The West Wing,” a hands-on problem solver from Anytown, USA, would make the perfect antidote to a Trumpia… https://t.co/NzuKvxOjnK
Retweeted by Nate SilverSelf-retweet https://t.co/EKughY9jW6Maybe? I'm just saying, when you're in one of those mass-production settings, highbrow foods lose a lot of what mak… https://t.co/4QOQUdsrk6To be clear, this doesn't apply at a restaurant where your steak is made to order. It's when a whole bunch of peopl… https://t.co/zaiES1rsNVAaaand if you we're like, I haven't see enough of these charts, here are more with @NateSilver538 giving you the br… https://t.co/9riUfhwGtY
Retweeted by Nate SilverWhat are the chances for Abrams, Bloomberg, Bullock, Buttigieg, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Garcetti, Gillu… https://t.co/3oFTVgGW3gNot sure how many people were at this meeting, but steak served in any setting with more than ~12 people is usually… https://t.co/qH3waxJao2How 17 long-shot presidential contenders could build a winning coalition --> https://t.co/fop8tt6sud
Retweeted by Nate SilverGov't shutdown polling update, week 4, from @JanieVelencia: 1. People still blame @realDonaldTrump and congression… https://t.co/7PywVFHLJh
Retweeted by Nate SilverFind someone who looks at you the way a mainstream news organization looks at opportunities to not call obviously r… https://t.co/WeccBvBUoo @OsitaNwanevu I'm just saying they may see her as a bit of a chaos agent, and see that as a positive because {gener… https://t.co/CFZgL3RhPb @OsitaNwanevu Isn't it just people on the left who, for whatever reason, hate the Democratic Party? Not that someon… https://t.co/UMqcpgVyCJAccording to our projections, James Harden is the Rockets' only healthy, above-average offensive player. So sort of… https://t.co/yuUPT9GWxM @ComfortablySmug I bet the Obama's would have served sweetgreens!
1/15
2019
If I were a college student I'd think it was pretty sweet to eat McDonald's in the White House.New pod: how could Julian Castro win the 2020 primary? Yes, we do discuss the has-a-twin-could-be-multiple-places-a… https://t.co/bbWjoGm3ac
Retweeted by Nate SilverPeople like to speculate on what Trump's approval rating floor is, but just purely for his re-election chances* it… https://t.co/eJJVmvN2mfIt's also not good for Trump if his approval ratings are inelastic. 42% (currently more like 40/41%, but let's assu… https://t.co/zID0DOQ2sp @ComfortablySmug Who's that? Is "Rubio" another nickname for Robert O'Rourke?It helps to have a demonstrated track record of appealing to nonwhite voters. So that would argue for, say, Harris… https://t.co/IXwNlOJRfNOK, have a piece up this morning with snapshot assessments of 10 of the leading Democratic candidates. Which one ca… https://t.co/JyBl23mnsE
1/14
2019

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