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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

1,272 Following   3,293,077 Followers   28,675 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/27/08


@NateDuncanNBA * If/when there is a significant class of immune people (e.g. 30% plus) then a lot of get-back-to-no… https://t.co/noZfZuUHfm @NateDuncanNBA I still think it's a weird equilibrium for like 3 reasons: * The perverse incentives I mentioned ea… https://t.co/U0hgXqeo5O @NateDuncanNBA I think that creates some fairly perverse incentives.
4/7
2020
@mattyglesias It's *almost* too good to be true in that it's arguably a little early to expect the the death curve… https://t.co/qLdUJNTqql @AlbertoCairo Yeah, agreed, and there can be some weird effects there. But within a week or two, we've gone from… https://t.co/wM0BSfCxy9Actually, on second glance, there has also been flattening in the rest of the country. https://t.co/GH5WKmOFgL NY… https://t.co/KYu9I7l5k3Meanwhile, 17% of newly-reported tests in the past 3 days have been positive, as compared with 22% in the week befo… https://t.co/fhkQmEmBgUSource as usual is @COVID19Tracking. Also, there's *clearly* been a New York slowdown, which is tending to dominate… https://t.co/pLCgKWOjr6So, there's a lot going on here. There's been a slowdown. But also important: there may be some day-of-week effect… https://t.co/qndEPqHhCiNewly-reported US COVID-19 deaths: Mon 4/6—1182 Sun 4/5—1184 Sat 4/4—1352 Fri 4/3—1178 Thu 4/2—1084 Wed 4/1—954 Tu… https://t.co/J0MwlDtukN @AlbertoCairo I think they're arbitrary in the sense that you can make a good-faith case for lots of different choi… https://t.co/z9o9zRkedo @joshtpm @mattyglesias Yeah even a table interspersing deaths per million people in US states + European countries… https://t.co/BR3tL3Jikm @mattyglesias Or (maybe better) have a bevy of charts and tables to give people a more nuanced view. But this is a… https://t.co/NgSUIn9TQz @mattyglesias Right, and if you do that the US comes out somewhere in the middle of the pack among NATO countries.… https://t.co/oBMTRDtGThPeople are not understanding the extent to which their perceptions of reality are being shaped by relatively arbitr… https://t.co/dZFpCbADH6Except that the trajectory is not relentless and the curve has bent a lot. And comparing the US to much smaller cou… https://t.co/2ANXbppclQI think Cuomo is also on TV a lot because his pressers are well-informed and informative and probably the best dail… https://t.co/3PuTygtRKNIt's almost as though the two 90%+ white states that voted first weren't representative of the broader electorate. https://t.co/sCXj83oF7iThe number of reported COVID-19 *cases* is not a very useful indicator of anything unless you also know something a… https://t.co/lrLNMTIOlG
Retweeted by Nate SilverIt also shouldn't be surprising it worked. For years the evidence was on the side of the nomination being a coaliti… https://t.co/Yb4awnNey3The questions are 1) why did such an effort take place? and 2) why did it work? And I think the Sanders campaign ha… https://t.co/sPKEAazTeAEhh, I think there was an organized effort to stop Bernie, more or less, and those endorsements were a big part of… https://t.co/cknCvenWXGIt's clear that things people were seeing a *lot* of symptoms by the 2nd week in March, which implies a lot of comm… https://t.co/hbBEjfD0mLThat is, there wasn't some constant baseline of symptoms to measure the rise in COVID-19-like symptoms against. Ins… https://t.co/tbPvSgCPRtAs an aside, while in theory you could use data on metrics such as ER visits (see below) & even Google searches (se… https://t.co/7SOAHsLKCoEncouraging evidence that Italy is past its peak. And they reported ~30K new tests today, which is toward the highe… https://t.co/DtVwh2MYuzIndependently of the hospitalizations data, we see declines of maybe ~40% from peak for Google searches in NYC metr… https://t.co/kuPvUSSwQR @dr_ilardi Deaths are the most lagging indicator and you wouldn't expect deaths in NY to be declining yet. So if th… https://t.co/foDdIIfg4SEncouraging evidence that NYC has flattened the curve continues. But, as I've said, there can be effects related to… https://t.co/U9gE3EYEIg @jeffhauser I look at a lot of data and I talk people. Also, there are some reasonable priors to have based on when… https://t.co/8BU9xOe1V7 @jeffhauser The data to suggest that the curve is bending in NYC is quite robust across a wide variety of metrics.… https://t.co/I43klsAsT4So while there's no doubt that deaths are significantly underreported, it's not so clear how this affects the shape… https://t.co/fZi24kVpisHospitals have to decide whether to test very ill people whom they know/presume to have COVID-19 when it won't alte… https://t.co/LfFdzOrK80I'm not sure that's clear. On the one hand, hospitals may be more overwhelmed at the peak, as you say. On the other… https://t.co/6rBjg3SeoDRecommended. https://t.co/NoPiKmh2HpHere’s the latest on how Wisconsin is actually going to try to hold an election right now. Read it soon cuz the sit… https://t.co/0DqhyG3P8I
Retweeted by Nate SilverWith that said, one thing to track over next ~10-14 days is whether NYC is not merely flattening the curve (it clea… https://t.co/OdO3SY1mJlThis is a good thread. It's not *completely* binary whether we wind up with a "best-case scenario" (deaths in the h… https://t.co/VobNV5zwfD
4/6
2020
Did "electability" help Biden? Probably. I think it *hurt* all the candidates who weren't straight white men. But a… https://t.co/83CcN6XgKSOn top of that (and this is related to his running as a somewhat generic, coalition-building Democrat) Biden's poli… https://t.co/ohlmq8mNGSOnly two candidates (Biden and Bernie) ever really had a mutli-racial, multi-class coalition, which is usually how… https://t.co/KwVFq2Le7cThat SC win created a lot of momentum/favorable media heading into Super Tuesday, and Super Tuesday created further… https://t.co/8f7motfTBpThe media narrative was **extremely terrible** for Biden when he came back to win South Carolina by 30 points after… https://t.co/vAniqYkU3PTHREAD: If we'd taken certain steps in winter - and recognized #coronavirus had characteristics we always feared in… https://t.co/HL35cuqrKL
Retweeted by Nate SilverMaybe this is a better comparison: 26,553 new US cases today as compared to 20,827 last Sunday. Already pretty flat… https://t.co/U8dxfrabPF*Fewer* new US cases today (26,553) than yesterday (33,767) although the news isn't *quite* as good as it looks. Re… https://t.co/AD9jMk1Pe1To put this in a super dorky way, the shape that an epidemic curve takes is not actually exponential but sigmoidal… https://t.co/4bJIisfqHGThe US's slope has flattened quite a bit in recent days, especially in New York. Not necessarily flattened any more… https://t.co/jIGN0rnzLEAnother issue with charts drawn on a log scale is that they literally compress what has been happening *recently* w… https://t.co/KBq9ME0Tdc @yeselson Yeah, there are *lots* of complications and none of this is meant to defend Trump's response. But I'm not… https://t.co/xmdmL2CarsCoverage of the US coronavirus situations from UK and European publications has often been poor. They don't seem to… https://t.co/ot1Vu0OJm5Dr. Drew is suing on "copywrite" grounds to remove this video of him being dead wrong about Covid-19 over and over… https://t.co/K4LlCTeM5t
Retweeted by Nate SilverThe goalposts are moving so fast https://t.co/A9GEJZHseV
Retweeted by Nate SilverOften there are too many recriminations, by the way. Campaigns are quirky, sample sizes are small, what works great… https://t.co/Xp9rB6op6ZOne thing about Biden's rapid surge to the top, combined with the news cycle appropriately turning to coronavirus s… https://t.co/RsV0w1JSaGEven if you did care about winning the news cycle *today* for some reason, it's a pretty bad one for Trump. Lots of… https://t.co/wC5ZQj7wiJ @NateSilver538 Reminds me of the day-of-week effects for a much lighter topic: https://t.co/3aizSww5LT I'd love to… https://t.co/u2g3vjcf4N
Retweeted by Nate SilverIt's also telling that the campaign that gave by far the fewest shits about winning the daily news cycle, Biden's,… https://t.co/YV4WAmulo7Maybe the biggest bias among people who are professionally involved in politics (media, operatives, lawmakers, comm… https://t.co/NIzCEhY6Ns @JedKolko This is interesting stuff. Might be worth looking at humidity. Might also be worth looking at actual weat… https://t.co/uq1GVmGvFpAlso, temperature seems to matter quite a bit, with warmer places having fewer problems, controlling for other fact… https://t.co/IKXu1sV6qYThis is interesting (though preliminary). Density is predictive but not *that* predictive of COVID-19 deaths. Socio… https://t.co/APDeWRCz2tNew on @NYTimesAtWar: Capt. Brett Crozier, former commanding officer of USS Theodore Roosevelt, has tested positive… https://t.co/fDIeAm4qvS
Retweeted by Nate SilverDemocrats will have plenty of time to cast blame on Trump's coronavirus response later, and it seems very likely th… https://t.co/AG6d8K6cI6I will say the US seems to have fewer weekend effects than some of the European countries (e.g. France, Germany). B… https://t.co/xfZT9fb2qrThere are human beings generating all of this data. A whole chain of human beings is required to count a new case,… https://t.co/piuXw70M6YThe New York coronavirus numbers in Cuomo's presser are quite good across the board (at least under the circumstanc… https://t.co/l0afZyymGR @gelliottmorris Yeah I definitely agree with you re: conclusions about econometric models. @gelliottmorris There are many things you can do to make your model more robust out of sample. But you can't actual… https://t.co/C3nyNPk1n8 @gelliottmorris There's no such thing as an out of sample prediction except a prediction that you publish in advance."The public blames presidents for recessions, but only if they result from obscure failures of monetary policy that… https://t.co/Dm2LJ5dd9RBut the notion that Trump would get a pass on a recession caused by coronavirus while, say Carter wouldn't on one c… https://t.co/HPCshAraOLCorollary: the more robustly- designed models should work better than the ones that were overfit/p-hacked by, say,… https://t.co/RQrKOYesMKHot take: if the economic election models don't work because of a coronavirus-induced recession that probably means… https://t.co/1jXUch3NkcNamely, that people will find this experience quite traumatizing, and the substitutes for in-person interaction rat… https://t.co/3PPlI3j98KFeels like it's very fashionable (at least on this platform) to say "see, all this in-person interaction was unnece… https://t.co/V0HBZBItxtI spoke to an old therapist friend today, and finally understood why everyone’s so exhausted after the video calls.… https://t.co/amdVskGVEp
Retweeted by Nate Silver
4/5
2020
The growth rate of new US cases is declining a bit, even as test volume has started to increase again. It's pretty… https://t.co/cmaTB1rKQmThe doom aesthetic is extremely aerodynamic right now on Twitter, and it's not mysterious why. But the US lockdown… https://t.co/LogHoKVJPj
Retweeted by Nate SilverThe fact that some people who saw the crisis coming first are also now predicting the most horrible/radical outcome… https://t.co/4hWUbotVJF
Retweeted by Nate SilverWidespread, fast testing (much more of it than now) is a crucial part of the answer if we want to get back to norma… https://t.co/HcewGn5EjR @docrodwong @IHME_UW So, yeah, I think you're right and I wasn't making an apples to apples comparison. At the same… https://t.co/0ZojXYBlWn2/2 If we can’t get a very effective medicine cabinet by Summer, and sharply reduce the threat from #COVID19, then… https://t.co/ntOLNo9pcp
Retweeted by Nate Silver1/2 Absent major technological breakthrough before fall (effective drugs) American life won’t normalize, economic a… https://t.co/zOtY5XmLza
Retweeted by Nate SilverPeople sure like to post things about how there are huge disparities between red states and blue states in social d… https://t.co/bewaQSXsdSThere are also some mathy bits in here, including a link to spreadsheet where you can input your own assumptions ab… https://t.co/tpOB6eDjRGPeople keep treating disparities in testing and other reporting problems as though they're rounding errors. They ar… https://t.co/HO9Hsmb3CGHey y'all. I have a deep dive today on how the number of *known coronavirus cases* isn't really a good way to know… https://t.co/MV7P3NFT5eNote since I've seen some folks get this wrong: When Cuomo talks about the number of hospitalizations, he is talkin… https://t.co/05tA1pxppETo take one salient example, per these estimates, the UK probably has about 2x as many infections per capita as the… https://t.co/YzfPOIQffQThis suggests that the US is now somewhat above the median in COVID-19 case detection. Our testing is better than m… https://t.co/JIc5tP5BMl
4/4
2020
@chrislhayes And the trajectory is looking worse in several places in Europe right now, notably the UK, France, Swe… https://t.co/1lOlCrpEof @chrislhayes It's not fantastic news or anything. The numbers haven't flattened out yet, and even under best-case a… https://t.co/hX0AACyqFg @chrislhayes Our deaths per capita are considerably lower than much of Western Europe. Whether that will be true 6… https://t.co/6uUZwKZ9mS"News coverage that casts Americans’ views on the coronavirus as just another example of the nation’s partisan divi… https://t.co/Fa6s7UTjnA
Retweeted by Nate Silver(There are a lot of ways to explain the discrepancy, some of which have pretty favorable implications and some of w… https://t.co/940BZR8t5vI guess I think about it like this. * Early June is probably a realistic over-under for when things start to open… https://t.co/ewk5l7NiJTYeah, for sure. Those all seem like big lifts. https://t.co/fBpOPPQkWsMaybe in the perfect world, you read and react and make decisions in time frames of 3-4 weeks at time as the eviden… https://t.co/9mIstlsLh5Found this helpful. Sets expectations for a long stay-at-home period (through early June) but clearly explains the… https://t.co/abIyvjhdto
4/3
2020

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