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Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

1,185 Following   3,205,271 Followers   24,268 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/27/08


@mattyglesias @Nate_Cohn Actually it's about ethics in data journalism.Dude, the headline is literally "Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign"… https://t.co/d2bnkNBxyIYeah, I think it's kind of BS to lean really heavily into a particular takeaway in top 80 percent of the article, n… https://t.co/sHGh5TuoTG @conorsen p.s. A lot depends on TX and FL. The best case for pessimism for D Electoral College math is that TX is s… https://t.co/B9ka0vaUomBasically, I think Clinton 2016 was probably close (maybe not exactly *at*) the local minimum for D's. So a coaliti… https://t.co/fWm7xH1VTlBut the coalition where the urban & suburban South becomes Democratic, at which point states like TX, AZ, GA, FL, N… https://t.co/78SOLm9HL1The Obama-era coalition was fairly favorable to Democrats in the Electoral College. Obama would likely have WON an… https://t.co/RsgyKSt72vThe reason is that I see this as being a fairly dynamic process. To be honest this is sort of my critique of the… https://t.co/7hxjA97Jf3I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or… https://t.co/WHHIZEg84G
7/20
2019
@Nate_Cohn Conditional on Democrats winning the popular vote by 3 points, would you bet on Trump winning the Electoral College? @Nate_Cohn There are a lot of ways to impute uncontested results and a lot of them are pretty bad. And if you're do… https://t.co/UntSNlIkaO @Nate_Cohn I don't really agree with you, although part of that is that I think it's a mistake, 16 months ahead of… https://t.co/aa3V4NQULlThe fact that the results of people *actually voting* in the 2018 midterms implies a rather different takeaway than… https://t.co/fvyt9ZjNqJAlso you need to look at things probabilistically. If there are several states that look like the potential tipping… https://t.co/IClBY1zQ4LHistory would say you should have a loose prior toward it being smaller since the Electoral College advantage is hi… https://t.co/4B7TriPzq0The basic notion that Trump has an Electoral College advantage seems right, he obviously did in 2016, but I'm prett… https://t.co/lOkLjeaQoi @ElGee35 @BenCAlamar I mean, we're still working on the framework! It's definitely true that opponents' FG% is fair… https://t.co/8TSgWqJ5Iu @ElGee35 @BenCAlamar In fact, introducing DRAYMOND seems to prevent some confounding problems. We find shooting fou… https://t.co/0aSp77NGVK @ElGee35 @BenCAlamar DRAYMOND is just based on opponents' shooting but are working on another BPM-typr stat (RAPTOR… https://t.co/1ima8bs4ZaAlso, the implication that Trump's racism against the four congresswomen isn't as newsworthy as those other stories… https://t.co/bqKMNrPKNWIt really irks me when prominent journalists (e.g. in the New Yorker) write stuff like "Trump has the extraordinary… https://t.co/r4WXiZXoXlSeems like the point of a debate should be to have the candidates who actually have a chance debate against one another. @BenCAlamar We find if used properly that the opponent FG% data is the most important defensive stat. About as valu… https://t.co/hyAtKzs5DM @BenCAlamar The previous-gen stats are giving Russ credit for his steals though but not subtracting for his poor op… https://t.co/erojYCCqre @tylercowen Yeah, it looks like we're gonna be more correlated with how the league values players, which makes sens… https://t.co/aDDabykiyR
7/19
2019
Why? —Westbrook gets a lot of cheap rebounds; uncontested DREBs don't have much value. —Player tracking data has hi… https://t.co/Bvz8ruqOEpInitial verdict seems to be that Westbrook is pretty badly overrated by some other advanced stats. This is our new… https://t.co/w1iQDEfK7nNot an obvious fit among the first 4 states for Harris. Maybe South Carolina, but she'd probably do better in a sta… https://t.co/SiCggi3sdUWas gonna make some stale joke about there being a lot of "economic anxiety" this week but ... actually it's not re… https://t.co/66QXPzfqXxWrote a little bit more on this today. Bernie is way out in front on which candidate D voters trust to handle healt… https://t.co/Aa6TleOpFn
7/18
2019
Democrats outraised Republicans in the Senate even though Reps have a lot more incumbents. That's…not good. https://t.co/Li2WVB5q7h
Retweeted by Nate Silver @daveweigel SCOTT BROWN @AndyRichter Oh dear YES. Little-known fact but Scandinavia has the world's greatest hot dogs.Folks, we're going to Detroit, MICHIGAN (my home state!!!) on Aug. 1 (day after the debates so will be an exciting… https://t.co/awPYYyHFEeHarris and Warren have been inexplicably bad on health care; I think it did a huge favor to Sanders when they endor… https://t.co/FVu3rUwBRzAll the hype around "The Squad" being an electoral risk for Dems in 2020 is overblown, IMO. https://t.co/n6qfgBGjWb
Retweeted by Nate Silver @Tonyhkchow How did you get a photo of my grandpa in 1960The proper heuristic for "IS WHAT TRUMP'S DOING A DISTRACTION FROM X?!?" is that it probably isn't a distraction un… https://t.co/gY1M12yodG
7/17
2019
@IChotiner They lost several of their best players from last year (Harris, Gallo, SGA), one of the stars is hurt to… https://t.co/fg93Cn0qIzHere's a podcast with more detail on what we're working on NBA-wise: https://t.co/IRA0qLeHPvJust a reminder that we're doing a live show in Detroit on August 1 (we'll do a debrief of the debates). Tix here: https://t.co/Ufny9o5icl
Retweeted by Nate SilverAlthough the work is only partly done, it seems pretty likely so far that our new metrics will like Kawhi Leonard a… https://t.co/1vheavJ1wEDRAYMOND, our new defensive stat based on opponents' shooting data, was our first step in that, but we're working o… https://t.co/fJ4E9K2HZLCARMELO projections have historically been based on a combination of RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and BPM (Box Plus-Minus)… https://t.co/WfcdTTqTscHey all! We have a sneak peak of our NBA team projections up, BUT these are gonna change a lot because we're workin… https://t.co/8BGtnat4Gh @RachelBitecofer @BayesReality @gelliottmorris We actually wrote about it a lot throughout the campaign. I don't wa… https://t.co/drPgRcm7fE @RachelBitecofer @gelliottmorris @BayesReality I think you're pretty badly mistaken in the implication that a good… https://t.co/dErdT3jCJw @gelliottmorris @RachelBitecofer @BayesReality Our model had like a 25% chance (!) of Trump winning the electoral c… https://t.co/aDhw10cOQ0.@juruwolfe and @zubakskees are back at it on campaign finance https://t.co/oy4IDrROWb https://t.co/AnxqkmW0it
Retweeted by Nate SilverWay better poll for Bernie than yesterday, obviously. Average of the 3 most recent New Hampshire polls: Biden - 21… https://t.co/8Xvmk0UOJBNew Data Set 🚨 foul-balls 906 foul balls collected from the most foul-heavy day at each of the the 10 stadiums tha… https://t.co/rSuyUOqjjk
Retweeted by Nate SilverAnyway, lotta discussion of this stuff on this week's podcast. https://t.co/6PSF9VFO0hAn also-relevant point: It probably did cost the GOP in the House, but Republicans lost most (certainly not all but… https://t.co/kyKKFE6gawA lot of the "savvy" takes on how Trump using racism/xenophobia will play out politically neglect to mention the ra… https://t.co/ReSsKKDDkvHow weird is Andrew Yang's tech policy? Only about as weird as America's. https://t.co/SOPjLHQBpe
Retweeted by Nate SilverMan the play at this WSOP final table has been pretty nitty except for Ensan. @joshtpm @NateSilver538 @nytimes Please consider this helpful tool in the future! https://t.co/Hny11nZLG5
Retweeted by Nate SilverSo about Trump's racist tweets ... https://t.co/AUeOIuSaW9
Retweeted by Nate SilverI'm skeptical that raising 1.1 million in a field where other candidates are raising 20 million and polling at 0.5… https://t.co/978mYikCC9
7/16
2019
.@annette_choi watched footage of over 900 (!!) foul balls so you would know where the danger lurks in a baseball s… https://t.co/DXLmoiTOKq
Retweeted by Nate Silver @jbenton I don't think "statistically" anything is the right modifier, other than in the phrase "statistically sign… https://t.co/dNAsQJChTQOr if you wanna be fancy, Biden's lead is not *statistically significant* given the margin of error. "Statisticall… https://t.co/vuwxF4xqmWAlso, my periodic reminder not to use the phrase "statistical tie" to refer to a situation like this. The candida… https://t.co/dE0leRCcPDAlthough I'd still rather have Bernie's number in this poll than Beto's! https://t.co/vYDyeL12wkFor Sanders, I don't think there's any good excuse and it's probably just a sign that he doesn't do as well with hi… https://t.co/fcy5bJBSzYThis is a decent poll for Warren but not terrific, and both Warren and Sanders don't do quite as well in NH polls a… https://t.co/ifIlk4JAOA @mWilstory Yeah don't think there was any way I was going to avoid that one.Foul poles* sorry always have polls on the brainVital research here. The un-netted parts of the ballpark between the dugouts and the foul polls are probably actual… https://t.co/QAYi1Cervf @DougPolkPoker I also like how half the articles are like "OMG, this machine learned how to BLUFF!" as though previ… https://t.co/DNihsCchky @DougPolkPoker We were much more careful in our article! https://t.co/fwq3LzUPHn @DougPolkPoker I think it's wrong to say that the AI "beat" humans, since that describes an event in the past tense… https://t.co/btLxLpAk1j @yashar @RepPeteOlson I think @WillHurd was first: https://t.co/p2SGwaNfSDLOL, everyone made fun of @nytimes for using "racially charged" too much in their copy so they switched to "raciall… https://t.co/PC7HrZP3pAIn the HuffPost/YouGov poll after the debate, Sanders was already overtaken by both Harris and Warren in terms of e… https://t.co/AHi1jqd17uI'm a broken record on this but I think Sanders is in dubious territory making an electability case vs. Warren. In… https://t.co/exhMvDLqALA deep dive on what we know about running as a woman in the U.S. and what that could mean for 2020: https://t.co/dMHkBKtM58
Retweeted by Nate SilverThe "diverting attention" arguments are my least-favorite among the "Trump is playing 13-D chess" claims because th… https://t.co/uvU4wWWxczBasically, saying "THE POLLS ARE COMPLETELY RELIABLE!" and "THE POLLS ARE TOTALLY MEANINGLESS!" are equally vapid s… https://t.co/qfPkOiAoB1
7/15
2019
It's not too late to apply to join @FiveThirtyEight's team of ridiculously talented and friendly data journalists... https://t.co/VFgYJvCRbk
Retweeted by Nate Silver @TheStalwart @mattyglesias * He's an easy target because he's sort of dopey and clumsy. * NYC-based journos think t… https://t.co/WRgBsFXUev
7/14
2019
I was DEVASTATED when Twitter went down so I made my own Twitter to hold me over. An hour without this very specifi… https://t.co/tMvEPSNcnY
Retweeted by Nate Silver @BrendanNyhan With respect, I've done the reading and it doesn't consist of a lot of persuasive arguments.It's *early* in his term but Kavanaugh has been more moderate than people expected. https://t.co/eQwJWboAQN @BrendanNyhan IMO if you're not in a predictive context that makes it *worse*. Models are supposed to describe real… https://t.co/DLyyO3wPlK @BrendanNyhan Most people are pretty bad at building models if we're being honest so I don't really care about the… https://t.co/3dLJEImobP @BrendanNyhan Ehh, I kind of think this is wrong. If the underlying system your model describes is bounded between… https://t.co/TVpUKduxiJNot clear in what sense the post was "satire". Defend the homphobic story or not but just between us kids, it's pre… https://t.co/X9pE0SNwtY
Retweeted by Nate Silverlmao the new republic deleted the bad story that they had earlier described as satire lmao
Retweeted by Nate Silvereditors*Not clear in what sense the post was "satire". Defend the homphobic story or not but just between us kids, it's pre… https://t.co/X9pE0SNwtY
7/13
2019
@conor64 @newrepublic IDK how many LGBTQ people there are on the masthead at @newrepublic but Occam's Razor is that… https://t.co/Rp5tvATeCP @conor64 @newrepublic I don't know if there's any way to know that for sure and the ideological stuff is pretty bac… https://t.co/aMIRDE9tcg @conor64 IDK, I think maybe the lesson is just that @newrepublic has shitty editors.ACOSTA LIVING ADJUSTMENT
Retweeted by Nate SilverKlobuchar = Knoblauch? https://t.co/0jCbEjomcP
Retweeted by Nate Silverp.s. if you're looking for poker study material that incorporates insight from GTO solvers, I thought these 2 books… https://t.co/67OO1jl7vkAre they even gonna hold the draft when OKC owns all 60 picks or will the Thunder just sent a list of guys they lik… https://t.co/oMV4zjADAuWestbrook maybe the hardest player in the NBA to value. We're working on a bunch of new metrics this summer and tbh… https://t.co/O4RQ6PRHLo
7/12
2019
I do think the recent theoretical & technological advancements increase the value of *studying* poker relative to *… https://t.co/sABPPqKiai
7/11
2019

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