Sign in with Twitter

Username:

Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/EYTxvN6BLY). Sports/politics/food geek.

1,156 Following   3,204,983 Followers   22,693 Tweets

Joined Twitter 8/27/08


@allahpundit I don't know. When they asked this question 2 years ago, opinion was quite a bit different. Maybe that… https://t.co/VJ9p7eyUvn @NateSilver538 This is actually one reason why the fight among elites is so fierce. Most voters don’t have a clear… https://t.co/Ij9bcRWtlr
Retweeted by Nate Silver @allahpundit OK but by the same token 14/71 on whether the US is not supportive enough.Overall, public views on Israel are much more ambivalent and indifferent than those of Beltway elites.But also, slightly more Americans think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel rather than not supportive enough. Whi… https://t.co/fM1bK3NedHSomething like the higher minimum wage holds up really well by that standard. Opinions on health care, though, ar… https://t.co/dix5wu3tLyAs left-wing ideas, many of which poll quite well, become more mainstream, going to be interesting to see which one… https://t.co/CodiiOOzHg @mattyglesias ^^^ If that's what the report says, it's just close enough to the memo that Barr probably won't get h… https://t.co/7dn8PLbsPr @mattyglesias What I'd be more worried about if I were GG or someone is a half-step back from that. Where Mueller l… https://t.co/ZOST9ER1J7 @mattyglesias I mean, I think that if Mueller is like "there's quite a bit of peripheral evidence of coordination,… https://t.co/BzM3vGLTV7It's lonely in this part of the Venn diagram but I think both that: 1. It's fairly unlikely that the Mueller Repo… https://t.co/7YSjGQt8xz @jeffhauser It's *awfully* risky, though. They leaked a lot when they wanted to knock down the BuzzFeed story. @mattyglesias I think there are quite a few ways in which the situation is not analogous, one of which is that no o… https://t.co/b72SpygkySThe "just get a good initial headline at all costs" strategy works when (1) a story is minor enough that it might j… https://t.co/RGEHO7ntgaLike, if we get to September 2020 and the Mueller Report has never seen the light of day, people are going to notic… https://t.co/kXiifGl1NZI don't know if that comparison works. If there are salacious details in the Mueller Report that didn't make Barr'… https://t.co/IoDdnnHneKThere are currently 14 MAJOR Democratic candidates*, per 538: Met DNC debate standards: Bernie, Harris, Beto, Warr… https://t.co/L0bGSfJz4AIn this article, we've set out criteria for being considered a "major" presidential candidate by 538. You can do th… https://t.co/DHekhyFt68How many Democrats are running for president? https://t.co/Sn0esEpZ5IIf the Mueller report is good for Trump (i.e. closely matches Barr's analysis of it), Republicans could decide to t… https://t.co/2Qt6zwkkGgTrump could run on a message of good economy, "no collusion", no wars, Democrats-too-far-left. Not a guaranteed win… https://t.co/Z3rFzhmgSM
3/26
2019
Barr looks like what would happen if Bannon were on Queer Eye https://t.co/tuIT7IWwA8
Retweeted by Nate SilverI suppose I just think the idea that it's essential to get a good headline out there to control the narrative **eve… https://t.co/oZ75CnbkduObviously, there's *more* room to engage in spin to the extent that the Mueller Report isn't made public or is sign… https://t.co/WYsVRepNQxI dunno, seems like a pretty big constraint on how much Barr's summary of the Mueller Report can deviate from full… https://t.co/KNpwTCTF8EOur podcast is out a little earlier than usual this afternoon, since it's about the Mueller Report and we thought t… https://t.co/6u1bvT105gThere are fairly big regional effects in the primaries and the absence of Midwestern candidates is fairly helpful t… https://t.co/Vb2hqUqAWHThere's a weird absence of Democratic presidential candidates from the Midwest. I guess Democrats haven't done that… https://t.co/5jIlBfF9faMeta-comment: Overall I like Greenwald, but I think he's sort of a home run hitter with a high slugging average who… https://t.co/FOmZtS4sqLThe extent to which you thought Avenatti had a good shot at the presidential nomination reflects the extent to whic… https://t.co/xYUT0AAQvBExcept he was polling at 1% even *before* fucking up the Kavanaugh confirmation for Democrats and being charged wit… https://t.co/SLyxxljdpwShkreli-Avenatti 2020Pretty much everything Avenatti did was a disaster for Democrats politically, especially including completely fucki… https://t.co/R5iRR1lgjcWait so Michael Avenatti is getting charged today by two different US Attorney’s offices for two sets of crimes? Wh… https://t.co/x9SY1PG3cL
Retweeted by Nate SilverThere maybe is something to the notion that "hey, the floodgates are open and anyone can compete now, even if they… https://t.co/4gnMCt0dSzI'm going to miss "Democrats will nominate Avenatti because [something something] Trump" as a litmus test for dumb… https://t.co/0mqaMd5rg4 @katherinemiller I definitely do think Fox News is in a different category than CNN/MSNBC, both by virtue of its hi… https://t.co/dc3Zeebdgk @BenjySarlin Yeah, there's something about the fact Russiagate was "newsworthy" but **didn't actually generate that… https://t.co/o01UyJQSNQ @GrantBrisbee Maybe he uses "restaurant" as a synonym for "store" or any consumer-facing retail business, e.g. "I'm… https://t.co/c8R5rFB7ZeThe question of why Russiagate is so prominent on left-leaning cable news shows but so absent from what Ds are talk… https://t.co/NCDQLAcEbkSwalwell's sort of been running on Russia and seemingly generating extremely little traction in the invisible prima… https://t.co/dOofUhwEJmMaybe there's a 3rd-order effect in which Democrats have less interest in re-litigating the past and "restoring ord… https://t.co/GlUkQpnGrlMy 2nd-order view: With Trump seeming tougher to beat it will marginally help candidates who are seen as more "elec… https://t.co/KbLjDrniXmI often agree with Tyler Cowen but I **think** he's wrong here about the effects of the Mueller report on the Democ… https://t.co/NUvxb2vdUBConspiracy theories can be dangerous for society. They can also be a healthy protest of the ruling elite.… https://t.co/woH29Dno3X
Retweeted by Nate Silver @ComfortablySmug Buttiboost @MattGrossmann OK, but Warren has gotten far more news coverage and all it took was one evening of programming to s… https://t.co/CVRNcmSWrdWhat that means to me: interest in Buttigieg is fairly organic and is *not* especially media-driven. There are var… https://t.co/Xa3kZeRnNGPer https://t.co/jHk0e1EAF0, Elizabeth Warren has gotten 5x more media coverage than Pete Buttigieg over the past 3… https://t.co/9bF6c7PpFMIf your position was "Russia didn't hack the election", then a conclusion of "Russia did hack the election, but Tru… https://t.co/WEH7xC2q3kSurely no one would do this in the age of the Internet when you can easily look up someone's previously stated posi… https://t.co/6hCVSmzoIsGood writeup by my friends @Neil_Paine and @MichaelSalfino: Gronk Was The Most Efficient Receiver We've Ever Seen https://t.co/qy8cYgvvFf
Retweeted by Nate SilverSo, all four of the No. 1 seeds advanced, as did all four of the No. 2 seeds... as did all four of the No. 3 seeds.… https://t.co/Jkv40azIpCOne is liable to have a rather different take on how "the media" handled "Russia" depending on how often one watche… https://t.co/o5Q75BGNSZ @mattyglesias Also, like, do center-leftish skeptics of M4A routinely cite the loss of jobs in the insurance indust… https://t.co/Sw8fCRSxnGFor me, the safest conclusion is that a lot of political downside risk was removed from Trump's portfolio, in part… https://t.co/bJFBQOQzUrObviously the headline is "this is good for Trump". There's a range of uncertainty, though, given that we don't ha… https://t.co/hbQH48IlOTSome slightly longer thoughts on the political upshot of the Mueller report. (Or more precisely, Barr's letter abou… https://t.co/a2uHd7OAve
3/25
2019
Here's @ameliatd's initial reaction to Barr's letter on the Muller report --> https://t.co/FejEGrr57t @katherinemiller @AsteadWesley Buttigieg hasn't been getting very much coverage until recently and it's not clear h… https://t.co/qQLM8hzRNgYeah, this is also my take, more or less: 1. The lack of a coordination/collusion finding obviously is very good fo… https://t.co/FnM13of5MKhere’s the 4-page letter DoJ sent to the Judiciary Committee leaders with topline findings from the #mueller report https://t.co/ki0lP4sy4j
Retweeted by Nate SilverThese causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputa… https://t.co/AJECuRzGs51. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down 2. Incautious reporting & f… https://t.co/8Ue17jiE7HIt seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct cause… https://t.co/ocE2M2miI9Jay Inslee has also qualified for the debates based on this morning's Fox News poll. That makes 12 qualified candid… https://t.co/I04gwpZARQAlso, regardless of what the report says, people who have been wrong for 2.5 years about a whole bunch of Russia-re… https://t.co/WEhk2WovIW
3/24
2019
Like one thing you probably shouldn't be doing though is, rather than gently speculating, dunking on everyone based… https://t.co/0rVDjFPNHY
3/23
2019
🚨 Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report 🚨 https://t.co/KObK7HRvfB
Retweeted by Nate SilverThe expectation is that lawmakers will receive the principal conclusions, in writing, from Barr this weekend, accor… https://t.co/9feNms59xk
Retweeted by Nate Silver @TheStalwart BE SMART: Debunking the rumor you started lets you win the news cycle twice.In breaking news situations, often feel torn between "there's no point in speculating since we know very little and… https://t.co/9rq6mQKUZdMueller filed his report & now we wait. Biggest concrete thing we know is he's not recommending any more indictment… https://t.co/pM9DM93bKZ
Retweeted by Nate SilverAnd here is more on the *political* context for the Mueller Report and public opinion surrounding it, also by… https://t.co/RjY68NSc8nA reminder that Mueller's investigation was *extremely* short, by historic standards. https://t.co/dYxKUOCoWX
Retweeted by Nate SilverMueller just filed his report. What happens next? https://t.co/fa3LiCr3HD#mueller is not recommending any further indictments
Retweeted by Nate SilverWe don't yet know the contents of the report, but @ameliatd and I wrote about what we can learn by looking at how M… https://t.co/QOpftMY6MF
Retweeted by Nate SilverWhy I'm Joining the Athletic, by Robert Mueller
Retweeted by Nate SilverABC NEWS SPECIAL REPORT: Special counsel Robert Mueller has delivered his report to the attorney general, Justice D… https://t.co/0bXTG0QDCE
Retweeted by Nate Silver @yeselson @allahpundit Sure, but I think individual chokes also suffer from the sad-rather-than-funny problem. @allahpundit Well probably but that will just make the choke worse if Gardner-Webb comes back. @allahpundit The other thing is that there's a point beyond which a choke becomes so bad that it becomes sad rather… https://t.co/VdRv59H53R @allahpundit Statistically the double-UVA choke would be much more unlikely but 28-3 is the GOAT of all sports chokes IMO.gardner-webb sounds like legislation passed in the 90s that everyone agrees in hindsight was a bad idea
Retweeted by Nate Silver @mattyglesias https://t.co/YJ6EcC55Yq @mattyglesias This map was the source of an OG Nate vs Nate (Silver vs. Cohn) fight, it really brings back memories.Since I've made fun of a lot of bad arguments for the Electoral College, here's what I'd consider a decent defense… https://t.co/50ow0ueBUJIn certain ways, each party's delegate allocation method reflects a stereotyped version of its flaws. Democrats' me… https://t.co/bdskeDjKI6By contrast, GOP delegate allocation devolve decision-making to the states, which results in a confusing hodgepodge… https://t.co/W9ruhPazs4Democratic delegate allocation methods are extremely proportional to the popular vote. There are a few quirks (15%… https://t.co/8GAUXid2nBWe're liveblogging this afternoon's NCAA games again. You can pretty much just slide into the weekend at this point… https://t.co/TFssqUXyMjFACT CHECK: Poehler seems to know who Pete Buttigieg is but technically speaking the interviewer referred to him as… https://t.co/Upl3mzAD8Op.p.s. Some of structural biases of the current map are caused by the fact that urban areas are very, very blue, wh… https://t.co/0XRALO0HjH @jeffhauser I'm not neglecting that; it's counterbalanced/outweighed by other factors given how the population happ… https://t.co/Qjd8ywlhfEIt's always a tell that Alaska isn't shown to scale in these maps. https://t.co/mxT320lJdo @kirkgoldsberry I've looked at some pretty detailed definitions of urbanization (e.g. population density within 5 m… https://t.co/QmDGUEv6XDIf you're going strictly by urbanization, Democrats should be winning TX, AZ and FL in close elections, which makes… https://t.co/izcYdI5GQbp.s. The Electoral College doesn't really have a bias toward rural areas anyway. In a world where the vote became h… https://t.co/1SCIFMPp8xAs someone who is *not* super anti-Electoral College, I'm just going to repeat what I said earlier this week, which… https://t.co/TZ1q3icNA7
3/22
2019

0