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Republican Pollster @EchelonInsights

2,815 Following   47,989 Followers   73,619 Tweets

Joined Twitter 3/12/07

@treviscerto @JedKolko Sure! DMs openThis is quite good, and pretty reassuring that the numbers we’re seeing today are like a letter from two weeks ago… @NateSilver538 Seems to track with flu season in tropical climates happening when there is a lot of humidity? @treviscerto @JedKolko What’s the gist of this? That you get funky observations when denominators are small numbers?I agree!
Retweeted by Patrick Ruffini @ForecasterEnten True but had the presidential been held that year W would have won 45 statesThis reply also gets at what I expect will be a primary message of the re-elect: Reopening the economy with the sam… happens if there is a genuine re-emergence in the fall? A public sense that the government is acting competent… other risk of proclaiming victory too early is that people feel like the public health crisis has past but the… victory being proclaimed and *felt* by the public before the 2020 election creates the risk of a Winston Chur… this event, it is probably NOT in Donald Trump's interest to proclaim all is well again. For public health reaso… clear decline in cases/deaths and gradual reopening is likely to lead to enormous relief in the short term, even… we start to get things under control, a few things could happen to turn public opinion.Historically, again, Americans have not assigned blame for failures of foresight leading up to major crises. Only f… is based on sentiment *right now* - and of course, the dynamic is changing almost daily. As long as the Fede… may not get to run on the economy any more. But he may get handed an even bigger incumbency trump card: Don't… public *did not* assign blame to the incumbent for the 2001-02 recession - because 9/11 happened - even though… wartime dynamic makes it *very difficult* to assign blame to the incumbent President for an economic collapse.… pandemic is reorienting American public opinion in the way a major war would. Nobody thinks the key facts about…'ve done a few interviews with reporters wondering what the economy's impact on 2020 will be. If it wasn't alread… only that, the public is unwavering in supporting the measures that took the economy offline. -29% growth is… YET: The Navigator daily tracking poll (D) shows that nearly 80% of Americans are thinking about this as a he… Wall Street Journal reports this morning that *29%* of the economy is shut down. That's -29% growth - more than… W. Bush in 2005: "If we wait for a pandemic to appear, it will be too late to prepare."
Retweeted by Patrick Ruffini
@mattdizwhitlock Can't see how runners/bikers jamming the 8 foot wide W&OD trail is gonna help @MileHighBrendan @CTIronman It's especially hard to know what to make of the declining rate of growth in new cases… @CTIronman @MileHighBrendan Any drop in the rate of confirmed + tests from previous levels seems to be a positive.… @CTIronman Deaths lag new cases so this make sense. Deaths should taper off in a few days.10 weeks ago, Kobe was alive, I was packing for Vegas, the Super Bowl was in 8 days, the Iowa caucuses were 9 days…
Retweeted by Patrick Ruffini
Has anyone tried to go out in public with a black mask? Asking for a friend. @matt_knee Media coverage is positively correlated with polling in primaries, but there's a decent chance it was ne… would you guess this is, based solely on these personality traits?
Everybody take this and post your results @KSoltisAnderson"A mix of Tyrion Lannister and Albus Dumbledore" is some serious Twitter bio material right there've wondered whether COVID-19 was partly responsible for the sudden flight-to-safety in the Democratic primary, an… strikes again, this is pretty much the point of epidemiological models. To force people to change their behavior. kind of monster have i become Bernie needed to be pressed to fund polling (in 2016, it was Tad Devine who threatened to quit if he would…
Retweeted by Patrick RuffiniBiden is out to a 2-to-1 lead right now. But we've been asking a Biden-Sanders two-way since last May. Biden's marg… US consumer spending data by category (down 30% YOY as of 3/24) from @BankofAmerica is stunning.
Retweeted by Patrick Ruffini @jipkin Looks like it. @jlamel same cellphone data showed big drops in suburban counties. Which makes sense: Your 20 mile commute to the city… controlling for the amount of travel people *need* to do to secure basic essentials is deeply misleading. wrong take. People in the South don't live the way people do in NYC. They don't live in big apartment buildings…
Retweeted by Patrick RuffiniYou know what a big market drop close to retirement means, don’t you? Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: Another wave of radicalized boomers @NateSilver538 How do we know when it’s a bottleneck and when it’s just fewer people showing up sick to get tested? @NathanWurtzel It feels like a slow motion 9/11, with maybe 75% of the total psychic effectAssuming you were around for all of these, what do you consider the most momentous event of your lifetime?Joe Exotic’s biggest political mistake was not running in the Republican primary
@business California ever finish counting votes?I suppose that a charitable explanation for China’s behavior is that they stopped keeping count after a certain poi…
This whole thing is a real bloody nose for urbanism and mass transitCounterpoint: We’re a big country and federalism should allow for a flexible range of responses depending on local… @dschmitt Yeah, I have that. What I can't seem to do is anything FROM Zoom.A thing I shouldn't be focused on today but I am: Seeming lack of decent Google Calendar integration in Zoom. I fee… feel like now is not a good time to send out a marketing email for your coworking space.Self-reported but fwiw: 43% of adults we surveyed today report they have seen #TigerKing. @BenjySarlin Basically, but I'd love to see the scenarios people actually expect spelled outWPP says that consumer spending in China was down 16% in January/February, which is less than I would have expected? lot of people on this timeline wanted to replace Andrew Cuomo with... Cynthia Nixon @binarybits @elisewho I'm not even sure what this is saying. Goldman's previous prediction was for a QoQ contractio… @jbarro @DataProgress I don't understand how "Sure, we might want all this stuff in an ideal world, but in this wor… @jbarro Epic subtweet of @DataProgressCensus response rates in the close-in DC suburbs during a pandemic. Wealthy white areas so far have double the resp… are trying to debunk the public health models, but the job of these models isn’t to be accurate, it’s to sca… are supposed to listen to experts, but those most expert in a given field are often wrong when it comes to makin… impact of COVID-19 and the question of when society will reopen seems to be a decent case for... *ducks* prediction markets.People working remotely for companies they like regardless of location and not being forced to move. No rush hour.…, this is why Bernie's loss hasn't sunk in for the left. They start from a prior that their ideas are the pop…
Retweeted by Patrick Ruffini @matthewstoller I knew you’d come around!So far from being the worst in the world. The worst in the free world, whose leaders need to be held accountable f… idea that we're not testing a lot of people is no longer operative. South Korea tested 1/200 citizens. We're… never knew this is where your nose went
Looking at growth rates over the last four days, San Francisco's shelter-in-place order issued before things reache… bottom line: There is still a lot of growth in confirmed cases ahead of us. But the bending of the exponential… jump is due to some larger metros like Chicago and Denver seeing higher daily growth rates than the day before… measurement: How many people live in metros where growth rates are *accelerating* versus declining from the… means that not only is the decline in growth rates real, it is spread throughout the country. Mapping daily… you do this, you get the following: 3/26 28.4% 3/27 25.7% 3/28 21.8% 3/29 18.2% That's higher than the raw… *national* numbers aren't that interesting if growth has slowed in current hotspots, and areas with a lot more…'m going to share some numbers that should give us cautious optimism that the U.S. is bending the curve on… @jipkin Their slowdown in growth seems too abrupt after reporting all those cases on that one dayYour #COVID19 dataviz should omit China
In a single weekend, Netflix has done more to introduce Americans to the median voter than decades of political science papers ever could.Tiger King is Election for our times
Watching this I can’t tell if the people who fall into this big cat stuff are crazy libs or crazy Trumpers. It se… @ahardtospell Massie is Nihilist AmashNeighborhood life is pretty vibrant these days: Streets uncommonly full of runners, kids riding bikes, happy hours… this is exactly what you do when you have several days of zero new domestic cases a poll, I'd be Somewhat Favorable on quarantine. That may seem weird, but I just think it's my disposition. For… @lachlan What about the entire post-2008 experience was terrible? We had full employment before this.New York right now is a tiny fraction of what the Chinese government isn’t telling you about what happened in Shanghai.There are no privacy advocates in foxholes. If you want to do contact tracing, start here.
Chart for forward-looking scenarios for context (& correct #s) 43% economy will recover quickly 41% life will retu…