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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict Washington, DC

U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report & @NBCNews contributor. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, 📈 data, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

955 Following   215,008 Followers   14,044 Tweets

Joined Twitter 9/16/09

First, Biden's not losing Latinos, just winning them by ~31% vs. Clinton's ~40% margin. But: 1) Trump's made up so… me, the most fascinating battleground state right now is Florida, where there's strong evidence Trump has margin… takeaway: Biden's big lead is mostly attributable to a huge anti-Trump shift in college+ whites since 2016. Bi…'s margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs.… Electoral College rating changes at @CookPolitical: GA: Lean R to Toss Up #ME02: Likely R to Lean R #NE02: Tos… preliminary vote totals from Ocean & Camden seem to back this up in #NJ02. This would be former Rep. Patrick K… #NJ03 primary to face Rep. Andy Kim (D), construction executive David Richter (R) takes a big lead w/ Ocean Co.…
Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered gro…, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's… my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-w… my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to… even Lindsey Graham starts repudiating Trump, you know it’s...oh wait, he just made it through his primary and…
What should really frighten down-ballot Rs: Trump is trailing Biden by 7-9% more than he lost the popular vote in 2… writes: “What Trump's campaign might not grasp is that in the modern polarized era of American electio…
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman @randOmuos nice try but no. 2016, the Clinton campaign badly misread the Electoral map. This time, it's the Trump campaign that might be was…
Susan Rice just made a pretty decent case for her VP selection on @MeetThePress w/ @mitchellreports. @NilesGApol It was @CharlieCookDC, who first used those classifications in his first report in 1984, to the best of my knowledge.
New at @CookPolitical: Rep. Scott Tipton (R)'s primary defeat moves #CO03 from Solid R to Likely R.
For reference, this 48% figure exceeds the attrition rate of Democrats at this point in Obama's first term - 112/25… in mind: most of the Rs likeliest to speak out *against* Trump were replaced by Democrats, and most others - l…'m so sorry to have to break this disappointing news, but this candidate ended up with only 1.3% of the vote. #OK05 the President meets with her and learns more about her, there's a non-zero chances she speaks at the Republican…
Retweeted by Dave WassermanFact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House. Since then, 115…'ve seen enough: retired NFL player Burgess Owens (R) wins the GOP primary to face #UT04 Rep. Ben McAdams (D). Nov… doesn't Boebert's nomination move the needle further in Dems' direction? Don't underestimate the disdain most…'s tight right now, but to me it looks likely the Medicaid expansion ballot measure will narrowly pass in Oklahoma.Even so, Boebert's favorable comments regarding the QAnon conspiracy world warrant a move of #CO03 from Solid R to… Western Slope district voted for Trump 52%-40% in 2016, so it's still going to be a heavy lift for Diane Mitsc…'ve seen enough: Lauren Boebert (R) has defeated Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the #CO03 primary. Tipton becomes the fi… owns Shooters Grill, a BBQ restaurant where all staff openly carry guns. Its food service license was suspe… five-term #CO03 Rep. Scott Tipton (R) currently trailing primary challenger Lauren Boebert (R) 56%-44% w/ ove… @ratemyskyperoom Thanks for considering my roman shade "art." Would it add or subtract from my score if I more prom…
And if Charlie Baker's vote in 2018 is more determinative of how Massachusetts will vote in 2020 than Clinton's vot… the end, this will be a pretty unimpressive primary margin for a $41 million candidate who started w/ a huge nam… thing we'll never know: what the outcome would have been if McGrath (D) hadn't banked such a large lead in absentee ballots. #KYSENOk, I've finally seen enough: Amy McGrath (D) has defeated Charles Booker (D) in the #KYSEN primary.BREAKING: Louisville (Jefferson Co.) just reported in absentees. New count there: Booker (D) 88,116 McGrath (D) 52… all those asking, no I haven't seen enough in #KYSEN.
May I present my latest masterpiece: Northwest Virginia.
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman
In June 2016, I questioned why the Clinton campaign's initial ad targets didn't include PA, MI or WI. Today, the… urge the campaigns will need to resist is investing in the CLOSEST STATES right now (given that Biden is well a…
Retweeted by Dave WassermanHas the 1) highest working class white share and 2) widest ‘16 Trump margin of anything on this list. @jor689 @aprilverch If your wife actually taught at Juilliard, maybe you’d spell it right?
@Nate_Cohn Very possible.Biden only needs to win three of the first four to win. Today, he’d crush the entire top half of the list and the b… Trump campaign and GOPers know that they can't afford this election to be a referendum on Trump. But, the presi…
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman31% of black adults said they knew someone who had died, compared with 9% who were white, Post-Ipsos poll finds…
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman @JHagner Hey I put it ahead of #ME02!!Rating change: #NY24 Rep. John Katko (R) moves from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. rough personal ranking of most flippable Trump '16 turf for Biden: 1. Michigan 2. Pennsylvania 3. Arizona 4. Wi… you think Trump is currently losing WV, MS, IN and SC, I’ve got a great bleach vaccine to sell you.
Do expect ads like this to make Biden voters & anti-Trump Rs feel good. Just don't expect this kind of "temperament… you're gonna try to burn a pollster for an old poll because you're mad about a national survey and accompanying…
Retweeted by Dave WassermanSo far, there are six KY rural counties that have tabulated more Dem votes than were cast the 2019 primary (KY has… people following this feed already know this, but most likely only 15%-20% of the total vote is counted, *not*… Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency MI…
Retweeted by Dave WassermanIf only I had your dance moves... 👏 👞 👏 👞 The lack of full results in the NY and KY races this week is a bracing preview of the chaos that could come th…
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman
In the Syracuse area, Dana Balter (D) wins the Dem primary in #NY24 to face Rep. John Katko (R). Katko beat Balter… much the only downside for Biden/Dems in the current polling is that the election isn't taking place this week.Hard to count the reasons Engel's loss in #NY16 (after 32 years) is so monumental. Just a few: 1) Pelosi loses a t… we get carried away on how KY/NY/VA Dem primaries show where Dem party is headed remember that: 1) the major…
Retweeted by Dave WassermanIn 2018, Dem voters showed an unprecedented desire to nominate women. In 2020, we're witnessing another sea change… should clarify, these are not official, final results. These are results from official sources (NYC/Westchester B… norm in recent years has been for around four House members to lose renomination each cycle. So far, 2020's cas… updated #NY16 official counts (not yet reflected on NYT/other sites): Bowman 27,174 (61.7%) Engel 15,372 (34.9…’ve seen enough: Jamaal Bowman (D) has defeated 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D) in the #NY16 primary.Trump is trailing by 39% among white women w/ college degrees. Might be time to stop calling them a “swing” group. I were Amy McGrath (D), I wouldn't be overly optimistic about sitting on an ~8% lead w/ potentially only 12%-15%…'ve seen enough: Mondaire Jones (D) has won the Dem primary for #NY17. Jones, an AOC-backed progressive, is now vi…'ve seen enough: NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D), 32, has won the Dem primary for #NY15, the most Democratic sea… Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), currently clinging to a 1.6% lead over Suraj Patel (D), better hope that the outsta… another ~2k votes added in Westchester portion of #NY16 and Jamaal Bowman (D)'s overall lead over Rep. Elio… Jamaal Bowman (D) still up 61%-36% over Rep. Eliot Engel (D) in #NY16 w/ 33k votes counted. Bowman leads in… be told, I've almost seen enough of almost seeing enough.In the COVID era, election nights are such a tease.Think you might also have the wrong guy've seen enough: Chris Jacobs (R) defeats Nate McMurray (D) in #NY27 special election to replace convicted/resigne… attorney Mondaire Jones (D)'s lead holds, he'll be the first Black, AOC-backed candidate to represent #NY17 - a… Mondaire Jones (D) races out to a 42%-15%-15% lead over Evelyn Farkas (D) and Adam Schleifer (D) in #NY17. Ju… statement win for #KY04 Rep. Thomas Massie (R) after the president called for him to be "thrown out of the Repu… think you have the wrong guy few precincts out of Westchester Co. (only 1k votes) have Bowman (D) leading Engel (D) there 49%-48%. Doesn't… Maloney's lead down to 42%-40%. Will the "time for change" dynamic claim another victim tonight? #NY12 NYC incumbent who looks surprisingly ok is #NY09 Rep. Yvette Clarke (D), who leads Adem Bunkeddeko (D) 58%-21%… Biaggi's granddaughter Alessandra, who herself took down a Dem state senator in a primary from the left in 2018… alert: House Oversight Chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D)'s lead over Suraj Patel (D) down to 43%-39% in #NY12 w/… is winning Manhattan, but Patel is absolutely dominating so far in Queens/Brooklyn, home to more younger/lo…'s lead just narrowed to 44%-38% w/ almost 19k votes counted.'ve seen enough: Nicole Malliotakis (R) defeats Joe Calderera (R) in #NY11 GOP primary for right to face Rep. Max… prior: Engel is likely to do marginally better in Westchester than Bronx, but probably not by that much. #NY16#NY16 update: Jamaal Bowman (D)'s lead over Rep. Eliot Engel (D) now up to 62%-36% w/ 8,300 votes counted. All of t… alert? House Oversight Chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), 74, leading progressive Suraj Patel (D) just 46%-37% i… spotlight's been on Engel/Bowman, but big race just south in #NY15, where NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D), fi… Jamaal Bowman (D) leads Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 59%-40% in the first small batch of #NY16 ballots. Still a very long way to go.I've seen enough: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeats Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D) in the #NY14 primary."Roxanna Waltz"
Retweeted by Dave WassermanThis is a potentially big blow to Meadows: I suspect the president doesn't like his endorsed candidates to lose by… if we don't see any Jefferson Co. (Louisville) voters tonight, I'll be curious how Booker (D) fares in some of…