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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict Washington, DC

U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report & @NBCNews contributor. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, 📈 data, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

955 Following   215,008 Followers   14,044 Tweets

Joined Twitter 9/16/09


First, Biden's not losing Latinos, just winning them by ~31% vs. Clinton's ~40% margin. But: 1) Trump's made up so… https://t.co/47jEmAgi0vTo me, the most fascinating battleground state right now is Florida, where there's strong evidence Trump has margin… https://t.co/hW2wRP6tK6Main takeaway: Biden's big lead is mostly attributable to a huge anti-Trump shift in college+ whites since 2016. Bi… https://t.co/Eir2nRiLiaTrump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs.… https://t.co/CjUNbnnk2NNew Electoral College rating changes at @CookPolitical: GA: Lean R to Toss Up #ME02: Likely R to Lean R #NE02: Tos… https://t.co/FCptLN8BCkVery preliminary vote totals from Ocean & Camden seem to back this up in #NJ02. This would be former Rep. Patrick K… https://t.co/kX2l4XCfdDIn #NJ03 primary to face Rep. Andy Kim (D), construction executive David Richter (R) takes a big lead w/ Ocean Co.… https://t.co/SzTfnqJooY
7/8
2020
Of course, there are a lot of caveats here. For example, there's some evidence Trump/Rs have actually recovered gro… https://t.co/omPHPdfmbDMoreover, in AZ, demographic change alone (again, turnout/partisan preference remaining constant) might cut Trump's… https://t.co/ZrNLwF4sCUBy my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-w… https://t.co/iBf35AizfLBy my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to… https://t.co/lunYOHQ6XHWhen even Lindsey Graham starts repudiating Trump, you know it’s...oh wait, he just made it through his primary and… https://t.co/0bGdX2gxvH
7/7
2020
What should really frighten down-ballot Rs: Trump is trailing Biden by 7-9% more than he lost the popular vote in 2… https://t.co/qNXOHpbwGX.@Redistrict writes: “What Trump's campaign might not grasp is that in the modern polarized era of American electio… https://t.co/2Qqb0OkNAp
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman @randOmuos nice try but no. https://t.co/3Lt9PsPcu6In 2016, the Clinton campaign badly misread the Electoral map. This time, it's the Trump campaign that might be was… https://t.co/5OuU8WbJXg
7/6
2020
Susan Rice just made a pretty decent case for her VP selection on @MeetThePress w/ @mitchellreports. @NilesGApol It was @CharlieCookDC, who first used those classifications in his first report in 1984, to the best of my knowledge.
7/5
2020
New at @CookPolitical: Rep. Scott Tipton (R)'s primary defeat moves #CO03 from Solid R to Likely R. https://t.co/szeYTpc1I4
7/2
2020
For reference, this 48% figure exceeds the attrition rate of Democrats at this point in Obama's first term - 112/25… https://t.co/0GdRJm1RtRKeep in mind: most of the Rs likeliest to speak out *against* Trump were replaced by Democrats, and most others - l… https://t.co/HNHrGO1pAEI'm so sorry to have to break this disappointing news, but this candidate ended up with only 1.3% of the vote. #OK05 https://t.co/PiIjT8yFcjIf the President meets with her and learns more about her, there's a non-zero chances she speaks at the Republican… https://t.co/kokFaPwuFz
Retweeted by Dave WassermanFact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House. Since then, 115… https://t.co/fPRIsOqGifI've seen enough: retired NFL player Burgess Owens (R) wins the GOP primary to face #UT04 Rep. Ben McAdams (D). Nov… https://t.co/u4F4hQnBd1Why doesn't Boebert's nomination move the needle further in Dems' direction? Don't underestimate the disdain most… https://t.co/UAft9z0uhGIt's tight right now, but to me it looks likely the Medicaid expansion ballot measure will narrowly pass in Oklahoma.Even so, Boebert's favorable comments regarding the QAnon conspiracy world warrant a move of #CO03 from Solid R to… https://t.co/pS958NGmhZThis Western Slope district voted for Trump 52%-40% in 2016, so it's still going to be a heavy lift for Diane Mitsc… https://t.co/4ccPqbnLWXI've seen enough: Lauren Boebert (R) has defeated Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the #CO03 primary. Tipton becomes the fi… https://t.co/3OaNS10sZSBoebert owns Shooters Grill, a BBQ restaurant where all staff openly carry guns. Its food service license was suspe… https://t.co/Va8PIwHltVWhoa: five-term #CO03 Rep. Scott Tipton (R) currently trailing primary challenger Lauren Boebert (R) 56%-44% w/ ove… https://t.co/CrK1OW9ZdA @ratemyskyperoom Thanks for considering my roman shade "art." Would it add or subtract from my score if I more prom… https://t.co/rH3JvalwZe
7/1
2020
And if Charlie Baker's vote in 2018 is more determinative of how Massachusetts will vote in 2020 than Clinton's vot… https://t.co/foYsLFdzQSIn the end, this will be a pretty unimpressive primary margin for a $41 million candidate who started w/ a huge nam… https://t.co/AEnT63qSaMOne thing we'll never know: what the outcome would have been if McGrath (D) hadn't banked such a large lead in absentee ballots. #KYSENOk, I've finally seen enough: Amy McGrath (D) has defeated Charles Booker (D) in the #KYSEN primary.BREAKING: Louisville (Jefferson Co.) just reported in absentees. New count there: Booker (D) 88,116 McGrath (D) 52… https://t.co/XGzHQkg4mvFor all those asking, no I haven't seen enough in #KYSEN.
6/30
2020
May I present my latest masterpiece: Northwest Virginia. https://t.co/djNWLFCfoz
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman
6/28
2020
In June 2016, I questioned why the Clinton campaign's initial ad targets didn't include PA, MI or WI. Today, the… https://t.co/HuD1hhINayOne urge the campaigns will need to resist is investing in the CLOSEST STATES right now (given that Biden is well a… https://t.co/XhiV0qsiL6
Retweeted by Dave WassermanHas the 1) highest working class white share and 2) widest ‘16 Trump margin of anything on this list. https://t.co/SPdh30HbyM @jor689 @aprilverch If your wife actually taught at Juilliard, maybe you’d spell it right?
6/27
2020
@Nate_Cohn Very possible.Biden only needs to win three of the first four to win. Today, he’d crush the entire top half of the list and the b… https://t.co/wPg7YRjnfvThe Trump campaign and GOPers know that they can't afford this election to be a referendum on Trump. But, the presi… https://t.co/XzujbeO5qW
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman31% of black adults said they knew someone who had died, compared with 9% who were white, Post-Ipsos poll finds… https://t.co/DPdnz37pjV
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman @JHagner Hey I put it ahead of #ME02!!Rating change: #NY24 Rep. John Katko (R) moves from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/6FyK4TPeb1My rough personal ranking of most flippable Trump '16 turf for Biden: 1. Michigan 2. Pennsylvania 3. Arizona 4. Wi… https://t.co/HELNVgrF2hIf you think Trump is currently losing WV, MS, IN and SC, I’ve got a great bleach vaccine to sell you. https://t.co/tzJWxODcH6
6/26
2020
Do expect ads like this to make Biden voters & anti-Trump Rs feel good. Just don't expect this kind of "temperament… https://t.co/HPqxs3YCTzIf you're gonna try to burn a pollster for an old poll because you're mad about a national survey and accompanying… https://t.co/bQndmyRjrs
Retweeted by Dave WassermanSo far, there are six KY rural counties that have tabulated more Dem votes than were cast the 2019 primary (KY has… https://t.co/jGY2zHIjWsMost people following this feed already know this, but most likely only 15%-20% of the total vote is counted, *not*… https://t.co/nifZpuP6prJoe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency MI… https://t.co/f6Oz3T41WJ
Retweeted by Dave WassermanIf only I had your dance moves... 👏 👞 👏 👞 https://t.co/linBDDSxRP https://t.co/owhP3TBmOlNEW: The lack of full results in the NY and KY races this week is a bracing preview of the chaos that could come th… https://t.co/yagq1G8aOA
Retweeted by Dave Wasserman
6/25
2020
In the Syracuse area, Dana Balter (D) wins the Dem primary in #NY24 to face Rep. John Katko (R). Katko beat Balter… https://t.co/dp38ns41H5Pretty much the only downside for Biden/Dems in the current polling is that the election isn't taking place this week.Hard to count the reasons Engel's loss in #NY16 (after 32 years) is so monumental. Just a few: 1) Pelosi loses a t… https://t.co/LUk1AsFwjhBefore we get carried away on how KY/NY/VA Dem primaries show where Dem party is headed remember that: 1) the major… https://t.co/IfRm69WRfE
Retweeted by Dave WassermanIn 2018, Dem voters showed an unprecedented desire to nominate women. In 2020, we're witnessing another sea change… https://t.co/gCWOsjY5NkI should clarify, these are not official, final results. These are results from official sources (NYC/Westchester B… https://t.co/zNDvxb57xfThe norm in recent years has been for around four House members to lose renomination each cycle. So far, 2020's cas… https://t.co/33ZzrfymofThe updated #NY16 official counts (not yet reflected on NYT/other sites): Bowman 27,174 (61.7%) Engel 15,372 (34.9… https://t.co/AiOCXW2ShoI’ve seen enough: Jamaal Bowman (D) has defeated 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D) in the #NY16 primary.Trump is trailing by 39% among white women w/ college degrees. Might be time to stop calling them a “swing” group. https://t.co/ABKyRyy8KyIf I were Amy McGrath (D), I wouldn't be overly optimistic about sitting on an ~8% lead w/ potentially only 12%-15%… https://t.co/FWUyFV5CPdI've seen enough: Mondaire Jones (D) has won the Dem primary for #NY17. Jones, an AOC-backed progressive, is now vi… https://t.co/w4HHs7KNqMI've seen enough: NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D), 32, has won the Dem primary for #NY15, the most Democratic sea… https://t.co/Ko3uZeblDC#NY12 Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), currently clinging to a 1.6% lead over Suraj Patel (D), better hope that the outsta… https://t.co/z6gJzsgSryUpdate: another ~2k votes added in Westchester portion of #NY16 and Jamaal Bowman (D)'s overall lead over Rep. Elio… https://t.co/tjFwgATAyAUpdate: Jamaal Bowman (D) still up 61%-36% over Rep. Eliot Engel (D) in #NY16 w/ 33k votes counted. Bowman leads in… https://t.co/LxBGdbyZxoTruth be told, I've almost seen enough of almost seeing enough.In the COVID era, election nights are such a tease.Think you might also have the wrong guy https://t.co/Mt0SgQvZIpI've seen enough: Chris Jacobs (R) defeats Nate McMurray (D) in #NY27 special election to replace convicted/resigne… https://t.co/BzUkI6e3dpIf attorney Mondaire Jones (D)'s lead holds, he'll be the first Black, AOC-backed candidate to represent #NY17 - a… https://t.co/lhHkPVPLWtWow. Mondaire Jones (D) races out to a 42%-15%-15% lead over Evelyn Farkas (D) and Adam Schleifer (D) in #NY17. Ju… https://t.co/XFOVM9ascbBig statement win for #KY04 Rep. Thomas Massie (R) after the president called for him to be "thrown out of the Repu… https://t.co/QS8kdUKdYNI think you have the wrong guy https://t.co/zJq1Os2GOXFirst few precincts out of Westchester Co. (only 1k votes) have Bowman (D) leading Engel (D) there 49%-48%. Doesn't… https://t.co/aUYobMCpltUpdate: Maloney's lead down to 42%-40%. Will the "time for change" dynamic claim another victim tonight? #NY12 https://t.co/PwnkWhBULhOne NYC incumbent who looks surprisingly ok is #NY09 Rep. Yvette Clarke (D), who leads Adem Bunkeddeko (D) 58%-21%… https://t.co/c43QRi9yvGAnd Biaggi's granddaughter Alessandra, who herself took down a Dem state senator in a primary from the left in 2018… https://t.co/YvL8DG2EIgUpset alert: House Oversight Chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D)'s lead over Suraj Patel (D) down to 43%-39% in #NY12 w/… https://t.co/6ic9w9N6azMaloney is winning Manhattan, but Patel is absolutely dominating so far in Queens/Brooklyn, home to more younger/lo… https://t.co/7em373jpOLMaloney's lead just narrowed to 44%-38% w/ almost 19k votes counted. https://t.co/dLvKbyWFKFI've seen enough: Nicole Malliotakis (R) defeats Joe Calderera (R) in #NY11 GOP primary for right to face Rep. Max… https://t.co/eyLsABEZ0bMy prior: Engel is likely to do marginally better in Westchester than Bronx, but probably not by that much. #NY16#NY16 update: Jamaal Bowman (D)'s lead over Rep. Eliot Engel (D) now up to 62%-36% w/ 8,300 votes counted. All of t… https://t.co/tmzUCSWVCuUpset alert? House Oversight Chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), 74, leading progressive Suraj Patel (D) just 46%-37% i… https://t.co/UJitPu0uzSThe spotlight's been on Engel/Bowman, but big race just south in #NY15, where NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D), fi… https://t.co/6F3vGjMqzyBreaking: Jamaal Bowman (D) leads Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 59%-40% in the first small batch of #NY16 ballots. Still a very long way to go.I've seen enough: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeats Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D) in the #NY14 primary."Roxanna Waltz" https://t.co/DY2RZJIe4k
Retweeted by Dave WassermanThis is a potentially big blow to Meadows: I suspect the president doesn't like his endorsed candidates to lose by… https://t.co/8uWu36v1usEven if we don't see any Jefferson Co. (Louisville) voters tonight, I'll be curious how Booker (D) fares in some of… https://t.co/Tj0uJqilxs
6/24
2020

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