@benwansell Fair play. I assessed PPI insurance claims in my summer holidays to pay the bills as a student. Wasn’t…
https://t.co/w7qWhDGSHIThe PSA survey actually was bad (it always is - most PSA members are not elections researchers) but the forecasting…
https://t.co/d2yRHqeXLm @benwansell And a very low level of scepticism about unsourced tweets from part time waiters.All of the publishing models have blogged and tweeted about them regularly. Compiling accurate figures would take j…
https://t.co/kiJEIobcnz @benwansell Yes true for PSA (as usual - stupid survey). But forecast models individually and collectively outperfo…
https://t.co/BWCWlW86dXIf you’re going to criticise academic colleagues it’s probably best to check you have their published and widely av…
https://t.co/n3jtg1whAiLabour deployed resources to the wrong places as
@HannahAlOthman had warned. Poor old Vernon Coaker.
https://t.co/Z3d5VHf38D
Retweeted by Rob FordRemainers, meanwhile, completely bollocksed up their tactics.
https://t.co/pL8CKXdmUY
Retweeted by Rob FordThe party bled from both ends. But one cut sliced an artery.
https://t.co/W201gR55X3
Retweeted by Rob FordA fantastic analysis of 2019, especially considering how quickly it came out. Tl;dr Labour played bad hand badly on…
https://t.co/1OyNaBxEnF
Retweeted by Rob Ford @simon_brew @CroydonSean Apology accepted. Mistakes are easy to make on here
@rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska No worse, just the same! Last two election would probably have been v diff though
@markpack Congratulations Mark!
@rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska AV would still have delivered a Con majority in 2015. A bigger one, in fact, IIRC
@SaintBiffy @ChrisAuckland @NoujaimBaldwin @Dic_Penderyn @MarinaHyde The reason for that is population growth. Winn…
https://t.co/qeHWqQ3mxB @rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska The problem is that the division of seats is seldom neat and straightforward. This is in…
https://t.co/YS4omyZR9oThis dilemma, and how it has come about, is the central theme of my book “Brexitland” with
@ProfSobolewska - out ne…
https://t.co/VBJaiGY6OlThis is the real high wire the next Labour leader must cross. They have to court northern and midlands social conse…
https://t.co/JEI9cBtwMT
Retweeted by Rob FordThe problem for Labour is that they are potentially not at their floor. Scores of northern seats are vulnerable to…
https://t.co/MwZ8n6iasJ
Retweeted by Rob FordLife's a box of chocolates
https://t.co/Ecoep5tOVj
Retweeted by Rob Ford @dlknowles @duncanrobinson Particularly like the bit when he expressed surprise that capitalism, home ownership and…
https://t.co/6kwTambQIx @simon_brew @CroydonSean Not sure who the “ you” is directed at here. I am not a Labour partisan or activistNothing changes, pt 2: Politicians’ use of opinion polls in 1983
https://t.co/qgaM4AyrnvButler and Kavanagh’s reflections on the 1983 campaign. Nothing much changes...
https://t.co/bWdnlnNjcgOver the last few elections Labour’s advantage over the Tories in English working class constituencies resembles a…
https://t.co/TIk3NFov4A
Retweeted by Rob FordI was privileged to be on a great
@resfoundation panel yesterday with
@RSylvesterTimes and
@rafaelbehr but star of…
https://t.co/pEYe3oKQtL
Retweeted by Rob FordThis is, of course, not what people were saying and Matt knows it.
https://t.co/rfucOkG4SS
Retweeted by Rob FordRight, I need some sleep so here is the story of the election in correlation form. Unpacking this stort is task for…
https://t.co/QtTXOZG6IO
Retweeted by Rob FordWe cannot draw inferences about switching by individual voters from total votes for each party.
We need survey da…
https://t.co/sHGg6b5eQF
Retweeted by Rob Ford“triple digit margins”
https://t.co/lSJIrA2HRM
Retweeted by Rob FordA new fundraising idea, a pound for every labour person who says we need serious reflection re election and then go…
https://t.co/MRMUWV5SKs
Retweeted by Rob FordIn my head the crosses are accompanied by that sound from Family Fortunes...
https://t.co/BlRYUiUw9c
Retweeted by Rob Ford👏you👏 can't 👏 infer👏 individual 👏 switches 👏 from 👏 aggregate 👏data👏
https://t.co/FDB98BKBfJ
Retweeted by Rob FordSo Labour received a larger percentage of votes (32.1%) than seats (31.1%). The last time this happened for Labour…
https://t.co/lD4eQtoojJ
Retweeted by Rob Ford @hakhverdian @WvSchaik Similar causes but perhaps an even harder crisis for the (broad) left to address in Britain…
https://t.co/KiA5rWozCl @election_data Only one you got wrong I think was Weaver ValeI'd forgotten but in the first three minutes of this I predicted all the seats which Labour went on to lose seat by…
https://t.co/mA455IkERy
Retweeted by Rob FordLight bit of weekend reading. Me writing about how I came up with the concept of the ‘red wall’, and how it turned…
https://t.co/tIMUURq2mB
Retweeted by Rob FordI think the fairly stable Con-Lab lead sometimes obscured the fact that this campaign was very dynamic and a lot of people switched.
Retweeted by Rob FordI also think the psephology conversation did pretty well in terms of the volatility narrative. All the major partie…
https://t.co/7FtqnETbUj
Retweeted by Rob FordAnd this essay, from 2017! Bridget Phillipson is basically Labour's Cassandra, find it incredible that she's rarely…
https://t.co/LrdoTsa0px
Retweeted by Rob FordThink a fair few Labour people could do with rereading this very good essay from Bridget Phillipson, published just…
https://t.co/JthzomC0QW
Retweeted by Rob FordIt's hard to believe that the 20% BRX vote there would have gone for a Corbyn-led Labour over Johnson-led Conservative party
Retweeted by Rob FordHowever, the Con surge was big enough that in places like Doncaster North that a tactical vote might have been enou…
https://t.co/furOp4uJzu
Retweeted by Rob FordOne thing I'm going to be very interested in seeing is whether the Brexit party's collapse and withdrawal meant the…
https://t.co/X8YBbnWZMO
Retweeted by Rob FordTo understand #
GE2019, you really have to take the long view - as well as recognising how the mix of Brexit, Corbyn…
https://t.co/srul3QY9eI
Retweeted by Rob Ford“The Liberal Democrats lost their last significant rural seat in Southern England when North Norfolk fell...leaving…
https://t.co/BP6AsgC23S
Retweeted by Rob FordIf you're just waking up, here's a chart. This is how Labour and the Conservatives have so far performed in towns a…
https://t.co/45Un8wXldQ
Retweeted by Rob Ford#
GE2019 Under Proportional Representation:
CON: 285 (-80)
LAB: 211 (+9)
LDM: 75 (+64)
SNP: 27 (-21)
GRN: 16 (+15)…
https://t.co/OWkPJIVZWU
Retweeted by Rob FordIs this the same Matt Goodwin who was on Newsnight last night explaining Labour's defeat as being due to deep struc…
https://t.co/UKzxDZH7pc
Retweeted by Rob Ford @paolo_lim @p_surridge No not necessarily. No party has a right to permanent existence. Party systems can change. P…
https://t.co/F4FGz2Vf8eOn other stuff: this is a cartogram showing Scottish seats, coloured by who holds them. But: the more coloured in t…
https://t.co/lZfmqudb63
Retweeted by Rob Ford @tabouchadi @drjennings And even if it is theoretically possible, it is clearly very much harder than in PR systems.
@tabouchadi @drjennings Its theoretically possible but in reality it requires a level of geographical co-ordination…
https://t.co/ZPHKJmxmkg @tabouchadi @drjennings IMO, the best opportunity for Lab stems from the likely consequence of this Con win - Brexi…
https://t.co/QtQvAG5aw2 @tabouchadi @drjennings Perhaps not. However, I do think the dilemma is rather different in FPP systems, where cent…
https://t.co/uMTWHNhnvdClass act.
https://t.co/V14VBjfNUN
Retweeted by Rob FordGood thread on the dilemmas facing Labour now.
https://t.co/oeMQCdkjrJ @piplaar Brexit probably had a greater impact than I would have expected a few weeks ago (and I was expecting a maj…
https://t.co/ANzDW9Z3Ia1997 vs 2019
https://t.co/dQmfdck9Qh
Retweeted by Rob Ford1/
2005 — Lab vote share in England, 35%
Lab seats in England, 286
2019 — Lab vote share in Engl…
https://t.co/OiEEr8br6t
Retweeted by Rob Ford @ciarzo_8 @MarinaHyde Equating the Conservative party with fascism and treating *every* Conservative voter as simpl…
https://t.co/h6Isgf4hyg