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Rob Ford @robfordmancs Outer Qwghlm

Politics Prof, Manchester Uni "It is the folly of too many to mistake the echo of a London coffee-house for the voice of the kingdom." (Jonathan Swift)

2,345 Following   34,474 Followers   124,353 Tweets

Joined Twitter 11/15/10


Her sleep deprived is better than most people's awoken deeply refreshed. https://t.co/elQu5UdtZ0
Retweeted by Rob FordSomething really important to add to this narrative. Among 18-24's without degrees turnout is really really low and… https://t.co/2ltb431KlN
Retweeted by Rob FordNEW: opinion polls more accurate at #GE2019 than at any campaign since 2005 https://t.co/O3tlMDryPW
Retweeted by Rob FordGood thread from one of the best analysts of right wing populism https://t.co/ARsebnfM54This will be fun https://t.co/gqPywqvkoc @JamesHeartfield @chriscurtis94 Which means it’s an article which would have helped frame views of Chris’ mum when… https://t.co/tHnkucrCRC“I thought this was a bad idea and it’s important to me that you know that now” is always one of my favourite bits… https://t.co/ppcgowICMb
Retweeted by Rob FordLabour candidates can challenge some "culture war pigeonholes" - Lisa Nandy has spoken for Labour in the leave vot… https://t.co/RPy7GW5gmS
Retweeted by Rob FordReal challenges but any governing party must find ways to bridge them - eg government needs to deliver for new seat… https://t.co/tmFoTGz114
Retweeted by Rob FordMuch discussion of existential impossibility of bridging, to represent different areas - the Conservatives have won… https://t.co/EZl5Y90eZq
Retweeted by Rob FordTaking immigration out of the Home Office is very good news. But it will need to be staffed by different people if… https://t.co/o3fqcUF29y
Retweeted by Rob FordBoris Johnson has drawn up plans to run a “revolutionary” government that will see ministers sacked, Whitehall depa… https://t.co/fYuueGjQ23
Retweeted by Rob FordUseful summary of polling's performance in 2019. Overall, the pollsters underestimated the Conservative lead by 2… https://t.co/nJ03NAlnvM
Retweeted by Rob FordIMO the important part of “Downing Street will boycott the Today programme” is the unspoken “because they (correctl… https://t.co/fpC9cNEWXj
Retweeted by Rob FordOkay, so here’s an essay question for all those people out there trying to argue that Labour should not choose a mo… https://t.co/mqeLkpNBUo
Retweeted by Rob FordI'm also more convinced its *necessary*. The aim of the original book in 1945 was to try to stop myths about the el… https://t.co/cRJsW5eh7F
Retweeted by Rob FordOur Prime Minister described me as ignorant, arrogant, and ill raised because of my fantastic single mum. But sure… https://t.co/JFTjqbsS8K
Retweeted by Rob FordMost surprising result on election night for me? Sheffield Hallam. I'd kind of factored in the Con-Lab seats. #GE2019
Retweeted by Rob FordThis business of counting raw vote numbers is utterly daft. Populations grow. Winning a smaller share of more peopl… https://t.co/SbLm6aHgzdIt is also worth remembering that Labour lost about the same number of Remain voters last week as it did Leave voters.
Retweeted by Rob FordJust to add to @gsoh31's tweets, this list shows just how close Labour is to wipeout https://t.co/jWrw4AKZBU
Retweeted by Rob FordI’ve heard very similar comments quite regularly when speaking about voting and education. From people who really s… https://t.co/omSwRKze7J
Retweeted by Rob FordMy bit in the Observer on how the Blue Christmas election has remade our political map https://t.co/ihO2y3pAyg @23waveform It’s better than being someone who fills their day tweeting anonymous insults at others
12/15
2019
@benwansell Fair play. I assessed PPI insurance claims in my summer holidays to pay the bills as a student. Wasn’t… https://t.co/w7qWhDGSHIThe PSA survey actually was bad (it always is - most PSA members are not elections researchers) but the forecasting… https://t.co/d2yRHqeXLm @benwansell And a very low level of scepticism about unsourced tweets from part time waiters.All of the publishing models have blogged and tweeted about them regularly. Compiling accurate figures would take j… https://t.co/kiJEIobcnz @benwansell Yes true for PSA (as usual - stupid survey). But forecast models individually and collectively outperfo… https://t.co/BWCWlW86dXIf you’re going to criticise academic colleagues it’s probably best to check you have their published and widely av… https://t.co/n3jtg1whAiLabour deployed resources to the wrong places as @HannahAlOthman had warned. Poor old Vernon Coaker. https://t.co/Z3d5VHf38D
Retweeted by Rob FordRemainers, meanwhile, completely bollocksed up their tactics. https://t.co/pL8CKXdmUY
Retweeted by Rob FordThe party bled from both ends. But one cut sliced an artery. https://t.co/W201gR55X3
Retweeted by Rob FordA fantastic analysis of 2019, especially considering how quickly it came out. Tl;dr Labour played bad hand badly on… https://t.co/1OyNaBxEnF
Retweeted by Rob Ford @simon_brew @CroydonSean Apology accepted. Mistakes are easy to make on here @rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska No worse, just the same! Last two election would probably have been v diff though @markpack Congratulations Mark! @rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska AV would still have delivered a Con majority in 2015. A bigger one, in fact, IIRC @SaintBiffy @ChrisAuckland @NoujaimBaldwin @Dic_Penderyn @MarinaHyde The reason for that is population growth. Winn… https://t.co/qeHWqQ3mxB @rumdoodle @ProfSobolewska The problem is that the division of seats is seldom neat and straightforward. This is in… https://t.co/YS4omyZR9oThis dilemma, and how it has come about, is the central theme of my book “Brexitland” with @ProfSobolewska - out ne… https://t.co/VBJaiGY6OlThis is the real high wire the next Labour leader must cross. They have to court northern and midlands social conse… https://t.co/JEI9cBtwMT
Retweeted by Rob FordThe problem for Labour is that they are potentially not at their floor. Scores of northern seats are vulnerable to… https://t.co/MwZ8n6iasJ
Retweeted by Rob FordLife's a box of chocolates https://t.co/Ecoep5tOVj
Retweeted by Rob Ford @dlknowles @duncanrobinson Particularly like the bit when he expressed surprise that capitalism, home ownership and… https://t.co/6kwTambQIx @simon_brew @CroydonSean Not sure who the “ you” is directed at here. I am not a Labour partisan or activistNothing changes, pt 2: Politicians’ use of opinion polls in 1983 https://t.co/qgaM4AyrnvButler and Kavanagh’s reflections on the 1983 campaign. Nothing much changes... https://t.co/bWdnlnNjcgOver the last few elections Labour’s advantage over the Tories in English working class constituencies resembles a… https://t.co/TIk3NFov4A
Retweeted by Rob FordI was privileged to be on a great @resfoundation panel yesterday with @RSylvesterTimes and @rafaelbehr but star of… https://t.co/pEYe3oKQtL
Retweeted by Rob FordThis is, of course, not what people were saying and Matt knows it. https://t.co/rfucOkG4SS
Retweeted by Rob FordRight, I need some sleep so here is the story of the election in correlation form. Unpacking this stort is task for… https://t.co/QtTXOZG6IO
Retweeted by Rob FordWe cannot draw inferences about switching by individual voters from total votes for each party. We need survey da… https://t.co/sHGg6b5eQF
Retweeted by Rob Ford“triple digit margins” https://t.co/lSJIrA2HRM
Retweeted by Rob FordA new fundraising idea, a pound for every labour person who says we need serious reflection re election and then go… https://t.co/MRMUWV5SKs
Retweeted by Rob FordIn my head the crosses are accompanied by that sound from Family Fortunes... https://t.co/BlRYUiUw9c
Retweeted by Rob Ford👏you👏 can't 👏 infer👏 individual 👏 switches 👏 from 👏 aggregate 👏data👏 https://t.co/FDB98BKBfJ
Retweeted by Rob FordSo Labour received a larger percentage of votes (32.1%) than seats (31.1%). The last time this happened for Labour… https://t.co/lD4eQtoojJ
Retweeted by Rob Ford @hakhverdian @WvSchaik Similar causes but perhaps an even harder crisis for the (broad) left to address in Britain… https://t.co/KiA5rWozCl @election_data Only one you got wrong I think was Weaver ValeI'd forgotten but in the first three minutes of this I predicted all the seats which Labour went on to lose seat by… https://t.co/mA455IkERy
Retweeted by Rob FordLight bit of weekend reading. Me writing about how I came up with the concept of the ‘red wall’, and how it turned… https://t.co/tIMUURq2mB
Retweeted by Rob FordI think the fairly stable Con-Lab lead sometimes obscured the fact that this campaign was very dynamic and a lot of people switched.
Retweeted by Rob FordI also think the psephology conversation did pretty well in terms of the volatility narrative. All the major partie… https://t.co/7FtqnETbUj
Retweeted by Rob FordAnd this essay, from 2017! Bridget Phillipson is basically Labour's Cassandra, find it incredible that she's rarely… https://t.co/LrdoTsa0px
Retweeted by Rob FordThink a fair few Labour people could do with rereading this very good essay from Bridget Phillipson, published just… https://t.co/JthzomC0QW
Retweeted by Rob FordIt's hard to believe that the 20% BRX vote there would have gone for a Corbyn-led Labour over Johnson-led Conservative party
Retweeted by Rob FordHowever, the Con surge was big enough that in places like Doncaster North that a tactical vote might have been enou… https://t.co/furOp4uJzu
Retweeted by Rob FordOne thing I'm going to be very interested in seeing is whether the Brexit party's collapse and withdrawal meant the… https://t.co/X8YBbnWZMO
Retweeted by Rob FordTo understand #GE2019, you really have to take the long view - as well as recognising how the mix of Brexit, Corbyn… https://t.co/srul3QY9eI
Retweeted by Rob Ford“The Liberal Democrats lost their last significant rural seat in Southern England when North Norfolk fell...leaving… https://t.co/BP6AsgC23S
Retweeted by Rob FordIf you're just waking up, here's a chart. This is how Labour and the Conservatives have so far performed in towns a… https://t.co/45Un8wXldQ
Retweeted by Rob Ford#GE2019 Under Proportional Representation: CON: 285 (-80) LAB: 211 (+9) LDM: 75 (+64) SNP: 27 (-21) GRN: 16 (+15)… https://t.co/OWkPJIVZWU
Retweeted by Rob FordIs this the same Matt Goodwin who was on Newsnight last night explaining Labour's defeat as being due to deep struc… https://t.co/UKzxDZH7pc
Retweeted by Rob Ford @paolo_lim @p_surridge No not necessarily. No party has a right to permanent existence. Party systems can change. P… https://t.co/F4FGz2Vf8eOn other stuff: this is a cartogram showing Scottish seats, coloured by who holds them. But: the more coloured in t… https://t.co/lZfmqudb63
Retweeted by Rob Ford @tabouchadi @drjennings And even if it is theoretically possible, it is clearly very much harder than in PR systems. @tabouchadi @drjennings Its theoretically possible but in reality it requires a level of geographical co-ordination… https://t.co/ZPHKJmxmkg @tabouchadi @drjennings IMO, the best opportunity for Lab stems from the likely consequence of this Con win - Brexi… https://t.co/QtQvAG5aw2 @tabouchadi @drjennings Perhaps not. However, I do think the dilemma is rather different in FPP systems, where cent… https://t.co/uMTWHNhnvdClass act. https://t.co/V14VBjfNUN
Retweeted by Rob FordGood thread on the dilemmas facing Labour now. https://t.co/oeMQCdkjrJ @piplaar Brexit probably had a greater impact than I would have expected a few weeks ago (and I was expecting a maj… https://t.co/ANzDW9Z3Ia1997 vs 2019 https://t.co/dQmfdck9Qh
Retweeted by Rob Ford1/ 2005 — Lab vote share in England, 35% Lab seats in England, 286 2019 — Lab vote share in Engl… https://t.co/OiEEr8br6t
Retweeted by Rob Ford @ciarzo_8 @MarinaHyde Equating the Conservative party with fascism and treating *every* Conservative voter as simpl… https://t.co/h6Isgf4hyg
12/14
2019
I know that not everyone will agree, but I think that this, from @RoryStewartUK, is some of the most thoughtful and… https://t.co/xJ0xEexMbY
Retweeted by Rob FordFinal Northern Ireland share of the vote: DUP 30.6% (-5.4%) Sinn Féin 22.8% (-6.8%) Alliance 16.8% (+8.9%) SDLP 14.… https://t.co/PQ2TLC2Hlx
Retweeted by Rob FordSome final thoughts (for now) on #GE2019, and the short- and long-term forces behind the vote... https://t.co/0otXAA9Y7n
Retweeted by Rob FordThis is an exasperatingly Oxbridge take on Brexit. In my personal life I know non-Ldn leave voters with legitimate… https://t.co/V0kG7UazlF
Retweeted by Rob FordNew #AnywhereButWestminster : last film of the election series. Inside Labour’s defeat, 10 years of party decline i… https://t.co/1byl3BvPc7
Retweeted by Rob Ford @kmolley @JeffSmithetc Oh I see you mean evidence which tells you what you want to hear @Clatworthys7 Evidence? 1964-1970; 1974-1979; 1997-2010 @___jonnyg Not me, but yes some are also doing that and it is for the same reasons not constructive either @markcreid You start by accurately characterising the electorate you need to attract as something other than two di… https://t.co/NXPG3hmeNH @edrennie77 No I don’t think it is @kmolley @JeffSmithetc You mean like this? https://t.co/tVSYqhZeBk @AlunParsons @MarinaHyde Also the first time in electoral history that a governing party has increased its vote sha… https://t.co/ebVc0dpt8Q @AlunParsons @MarinaHyde If you would prefer the following performance measures they are also available: Largest C… https://t.co/C6KpcXUT3q @edrennie77 First yes, second v doubtful
12/13
2019

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