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I report (mostly) on China security stuff, and blog about strategic theory, behavioral science, & history. PATREON: https://t.co/igBRBFvCKi

276 Following   13,009 Followers   17,456 Tweets

Joined Twitter 3/30/09


@_TamaraWinter @MichaelRStrain bingoCaixin should win prizes for this jaw-dropping report: _First virus sample sent for sequencing on Dec 24 _Virus seq… https://t.co/zAnlgq1Ytr
Retweeted by T. Greer @poststop @ccneill I see you sir and raise https://t.co/sTQvUl9OSE @ccneill But the interesting thing with most of those banks in '29 is that they were so in the red after the crash… https://t.co/b5M9RfJmjX @Fabius1453 not always. Helps if you and your close kind survived. But often.The real lesson to take: if you are an authority--a government, say, or even a newspaper--you should be far less co… https://t.co/yyLMwr2RGiThere are some--and Solnit is one of them--who want to turn these realities into a case for anarchism. This is not… https://t.co/y7WvlF77VmEbola quarantines in Liberia reduced R0 by like 50%. The review of them was that they were LESS effective than ex… https://t.co/XRqXv94aol
Retweeted by T. Greer @ccneill But was that 'disorder' really? People were getting their money out before the money was gone. That was th… https://t.co/uFoumMj0kxODDLY SATISFYING: Team of vets pull AN ENTIRE BEACH TOWEL out of a python in Australia – with their bare hands. https://t.co/rjzR2lrmEW
Retweeted by T. GreerBut the reality is that the rules are not needed. The rules fade away and the authority's reach lessens for a seaso… https://t.co/srsw6mm0ALThe most convincing answer I have heard is this: those who fear panic are those with authority - cultural or politi… https://t.co/ZnFOZVtfapWhich raises the question: if so few disasters cause panics, and if so few panics cause disorder, then why is this… https://t.co/x4mpRzGYnFThis is not to minimize the toll of disaster. People die. Things break down. Things are terrible. But almost never because of "panic."But by and large disaster brings out the best in people, not the worst. So much so, in fact, that it is common to b… https://t.co/gh5AnlbGdxThat is what shared trauma tends to do. The exceptions are long disasters that slowly wear away at civic society ov… https://t.co/A6xOz64rADThe theory was tested first in the Blitz in London and in the Japanese bombing campaign over Chongqing. Both cases… https://t.co/4ArXI321AZTo put complex ideas crudely, there was this notion that bombing campaigns would be a complete revolution in warfar… https://t.co/7UrfVAnbpmIn @LawDavF's book Strategy: A History (which I review here https://t.co/MgZbqMIQiO) Freedman describes how these… https://t.co/5Q7UgJqffoMore in a moment“Impulsiveness, irritability, incapacity to reason, and the absence of judgement of the critical spirit... By mere… https://t.co/x1UYm10bDuA lot of these misconceptions go back to a once extremely influential book by a Gustave Le Bon, publisher in 1895.… https://t.co/i7XvYVYsjsRebecca Solnit has an interesting book on this called “A Paradise Built in Hell,” for those interested.In reality most disaster never create much panic, and panic does not result in violence and rioting when it occurs… https://t.co/TB8jRG1iNpThere is a common theme to disaster response in 20th century American and European history. It goes like this: wors… https://t.co/SDeKbNTlz5Rationalists. A thread https://t.co/Zs2o8RdoReI am a bit tired of the hand wringing about the WSJ headline. Chinese state media, not privately-owned media like t… https://t.co/cCD9CW1j4D
Retweeted by T. GreerWow https://t.co/AUi9ME9Nn02 weeks ago: concerns over Coronavirus are hyped because of anti-Chinese racism today: failure to impose martial l… https://t.co/GjfSeonRm3
Retweeted by T. Greerwhat people are upset about is not that the narrative about COVID-19 changed, but that they were told that only fea… https://t.co/Omb9OMklL6
Retweeted by T. Greer【#快訊:黎智英被捕】 綜合多間傳媒報道,香港壹傳媒集團創辦人黎智英今早被捕,指他涉嫌分別在前年恐嚇記者,及去年參與非法集結。據報,警方港島總區重案組探員早上約7時許,到達黎智英何文田嘉道理寓所調查,約8時許帶走黎往九龍城警署進… https://t.co/93mZKo2tDo
Retweeted by T. GreerMembers of WH coronavirus task force Debbie Birx Larry Kudlow Jerome Adams Alex Azar Robert O’Brien Robert Redfiel… https://t.co/KHYaTt0zQH
Retweeted by T. Greer
2/28
2020
@itrulyknowchina @BeijingPalmer I sound like bit of a broken record saying this but yes they *are* the worstThis could be very important for treatment of COVID-19 patients in critical care: Number of deaths drops significan… https://t.co/pk9kcK4OYK
Retweeted by T. Greer @akhivae But the brain, shares many things in common with computers and other symbolic systems. The entire field of… https://t.co/rgEMkfOzmCThings to discuss are similar to the *normal* field work prep: 1) What's your threshold for pulling the plug and c… https://t.co/QoYEPWgfGw
Retweeted by T. GreerI don't want to sound alarmist, but #professors: If you have students conducting field work abroad, you should ha… https://t.co/xCdFmk3nDo
Retweeted by T. GreerFlashback to last month and less than a week ago, where Jake Tapper’s network was portraying the coronavirus outbre… https://t.co/JRYoHj9ugn
Retweeted by T. GreerIf you lose Taiwan, you lose Japan. I've penned a short primer for normal people that explains why keeping Taiwan o… https://t.co/pBPTzq8UYW
Retweeted by T. GreerLots of Dem elected officials & donors say they are very worried about Bernie, but they are not acting like it. 1)… https://t.co/mkjKK5UMoK
Retweeted by T. GreerQuite a useful piece for pithily explaining the importance of Taiwan. https://t.co/jTSyGnbHM4
Retweeted by T. GreerShantou, a baby was left at a hospital. Parents left a note saying they are penniless because of the outbreak (no j… https://t.co/Uu1b4HMl1s
Retweeted by T. GreerParrots and corvids have cognitive skills on a par with primates, despite not having a cortex.… https://t.co/wrvdiSbh1x
Retweeted by T. Greer @edge_li @BethanyAllenEbr More or less. More like an Italian speaker learning English, I suppose, with Classical Ch… https://t.co/18SFS9U7S8Lol. “Fortnite: the anti-weed, anti-sex, anti-TV, anti-alcohol, anti-smoking solution parents have been seeking for… https://t.co/IDIKg85jYG
Retweeted by T. GreerMinoan pottery has some of the finest depictions of marine animals in prehistory. An argonaut on a vessel from Phai… https://t.co/qAcaaTHaaf
Retweeted by T. GreerTomorrow is the 73rd anniversary of the 228 incident/massacre, one of the most tragic and important events in Taiwa… https://t.co/dV8ANghQAQ
Retweeted by T. GreerWhere protestant missionaries went, democracy followed https://t.co/ntRQ9Wxpe1
Retweeted by T. GreerI hadn’t quite appreciated how fundamental to Japanese and therefore Western defence in the Pacific Taiwan is, make… https://t.co/zzcsO0qfzG
Retweeted by T. Greer @ryo384_ir You are welcome to write up a response, might post it as a guest postWhere protestant missionaries went, democracy followed https://t.co/ntRQ9Wxpe1this is enough to turn one into a raving libertarian. i get that bad tests could cause unwarranted panic from false… https://t.co/t6XWRLuisN
Retweeted by T. GreerThis view largely prevails in Japanese strategic circles (including among officials). https://t.co/HhSLQo3Qdg
Retweeted by T. Greer @deep007_bond007 This I know. Looking for a deeper cut. Cuts that don't fit in a tweet.The Fifty-Three Stations of the Tokaido: Chiryu, Ando Hiroshige, 1833 https://t.co/3gS7eyxqVw #museumarchivehttps://t.co/vDzTdpR7ou
Retweeted by T. Greer&how do the intellectual, chattering classes on each "side" of the violence frame the broader problems involved? Wh… https://t.co/WIdHApjd0VI think what I am especially interested here is on the broader background. Not back to '47 background. More like, w… https://t.co/iqZqSZgw5e @AzorInfo This is a tweet.OK folks, what the hell happened in India? *Is* happening? I don't want tweets in answer. I want real articles, tha… https://t.co/gZysGecAsoI have also been impressed with the Taiwan government's response--on all angles, not just the masks one--in compari… https://t.co/9H7PnSOGhqActivism is the easiest activity to PERFORM, one of the hardest to DO and DO WELL.
Retweeted by T. Greer @IainDHenry My argument is physical territory. A geographic argument. I am generally not convinced by reputation on… https://t.co/LzvEi9mr6J @samsaragon @thespandrell See it is not about being *impressed.* It is a question of whether you are the *right kin… https://t.co/nNfaNEDvb4 @IainDHenry this idea that you can abandon Taiwan but keep the status quo with Japan or the Philippines. Most Ameri… https://t.co/MmjohIw1az @IainDHenry 2. No, but that is in effect what they are advocating, even if they do not realize it. Burden of argume… https://t.co/vEIb2jA0iH @IainDHenry 1. The key thing in this post tho is not American perceptions but *Japanese.* Part of the difference in… https://t.co/Ovm9NTqu4y @LTF_01 I'm not defending the "this is just another flu" line. I am questioning whether one coma tells us anything meaningful. @LTF_01 One of 50 or one of 80,000? @LTF_01 https://t.co/ynNu0BZYuNI participated in this roundtable. There were some great essays. Especially by AE Clark https://t.co/SvpKelVLLg“Taiwan is the keystone of China's naval containment. Lose Taiwan, and Japan loses the ability to keep PLA Navy hem… https://t.co/FeuAW3oBMU
Retweeted by T. Greer @hofrench so thats a no then?清雍正.青花海水白釉龙纹胆瓶,武汉博物馆藏 https://t.co/fmGJvvPjJW
Retweeted by T. GreerGrowth in case counts in S Korea, Italy, Iran reflects testing strategy, in part. They are looking more so they are… https://t.co/AJuQKLTQng
Retweeted by T. GreerA personal perspective on @BernieSanders : I've spent dozens of hours watching his videos. The bell just kept ringi… https://t.co/PZbr04IGLn
Retweeted by T. GreerMy friend @WalterScheidel must feel vindicated. Coronavirus has already shaved off about 1/2 a Gini point of US wea… https://t.co/9pzOWvvz4C
Retweeted by T. GreerMay be of interest to @dhnexon @baseballcrank @benthompson @karlbykarlsmith @Noahpinion @MacaesBruno @JMichaelCole1https://t.co/imcbBYxYha @samsaragon @thespandrell To expand on this a bit, what you are really trying to signal with these things is that y… https://t.co/7pmWxPTbGF @PennyTresjon @PaulHuangReport They do. They share that data with the Brits, the Americans, and the Australians. Not the Taiwanese. @PaulHuangReport Because this knowledge is limited to security circles. SDSF gets it, some Abe people get it, but b… https://t.co/RgOthiFBxiInteresting take https://t.co/Tn6XxQqHVzCannot wait until my entire timeline is grousing about this. "I was fearmongering about potential r0 from preprint… https://t.co/Erb4FwurTS
Retweeted by T. GreerI don’t think this is at all true but i do think it is pretty dang funny https://t.co/QcqFRQUFhKWith gorgeous plumes, the Simurgh was a favorite of Sufi literature. In Attar’s Conference of the Birds, the birds… https://t.co/yMYSaY8sOy
Retweeted by T. GreerListening to the Bamboo, Wen Zhengming, late 1400s-1500s https://t.co/kfDjuHN1me #chineseart #clevelandartmuseum https://t.co/61xm9U17de
Retweeted by T. Greer
2/27
2020
Who has experience learning Japanese after learning Chinese? I came across a vocab list of the most important 1000… https://t.co/Lz9Tdtjp90 @wesyang They paused giving out new blue checks two years ago. So most important one is, "was important enough to… https://t.co/1aWkS6DBiyMore details later. But two things in the end. 1: it is a full fledged communal riot, both sides inflicting damage.… https://t.co/d2NXJc7LoA
Retweeted by T. GreerWow, look at all these Latin American countries that achieved big gains in literacy without 60 years of a Marxist-L… https://t.co/VFUjptOwCj
Retweeted by T. Greer @nktpnd Yes. The question is whether they can communicate this view to people in the larger world of commerce and… https://t.co/qI9xuzrlyTThere’s a recognition that Japan can’t sit out a cross-strait war and also that a cross-strait war would effectivel… https://t.co/90WahjM7pb
Retweeted by T. Greer @EnonymousAcc Heh. But it may be *Japan's* to lose @WonkVJ Well, I did not say these are the reasons *America* should want to keep Taiwan independent. These are, rath… https://t.co/dYtB77H5KB @RollandNadege No. But it is going to be a footnote in that response! I wanted to write it first so I had something to link to!May be of interest to @natashaskassam @alessionaval @observingjapan @JPNsecuritywonk @BillyMallard @CoreyJWallacehttps://t.co/aRaM1FhyXtMy ultimate message is this: the decision to abandon Taiwan would ultimately be a decision to retreat from East Asi… https://t.co/J2s5bLquXxIt has many fun maps, like these ones https://t.co/QxVKz66FnvIf you lose Taiwan, you lose Japan. I've penned a short primer for normal people that explains why keeping Taiwan o… https://t.co/pBPTzq8UYWThe Air Force and SpaceX are teaming up for a 'massive' live fire exercise: https://t.co/IHTq5Y1BSV
Retweeted by T. Greer @samsaragon @thespandrell Upper class elites like to signal 1) intelligence and 2) they are hard working. I am 100%… https://t.co/v4mJmKvNcq
2/26
2020

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