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National Political Correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC. My book, The Red and the Blue, is available now. Instagram: steve01450

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Joined Twitter 6/2/09

Also interesting to compare Christie's public insistence the last few years that he and Jared got along great and h… @ForecasterEnten Right, the theoretical openness to another candidate was strong in '16 and didn't amount to muchPolling of R's reminds me of 2016 in many ways: - Significant chunk of GOP electorate very open/eager to find some… @kmckean1 Thank you for saying that! And glad you're enjoying it.That Chris Christie went from taking down Charles Kushner to being at the mercy of his son remains one of the most…
Full poll: ratings by race for potential Dem WH candidates from new PBS/Marist poll of Dems/Dem-leaning independents: forward to this event with my former NY Observer colleague!
@KSoltisAnderson I mismanaged the prom and was voted out of office... @KSoltisAnderson
(Why I thought to dig this out today: saved the NY Post cover from one of the most memorable stories I followed in my NJ days: U.S. Attorney Chris Chri…
Cheap and obligatory self-promotion: the Buchanan-Trump contest and Buchanan's '92 and '96 WH bids, which alarmed t… ended up backing out in Feb '00. He was being out-organized and gaining little polling traction. He used an N… Two candidates set to seek Reform Party WH nod — Pat Buchanan, who favors immigration restrictions, a wal…
I eat like three different things and I'm not too smart, so this dinner with my publisher and some brilliant writer… @jsende @karol Yeah I think that’s right, there was a meta aspect. Stories about likability and beer tests and stor… @jsende @karol But HW Bush was too aristocratic to really be portrayed as “someone you want to grab a beer with,” s… @jsende @karol Dukakis got it somewhat in ‘88, part of the broader indictment of his “likability”: joined @MichaelSteele on his podcast and we ended up talking for an hour about Newt, Bob Michel, Tip O’Neill, Jim…
@LPDonovan @_Almaqah @RhetoricPJ Yep. I suspect Cuomo would have knocked Clinton out for several reasons, but one t… @ForecasterEnten I fought the system as long and hard as I could @ForecasterEnten Not with a suit and tie!
This was a fun conversation - covered a lot of ground. I hope you'll take 23 minutes and give it a listen! @SeanTrende This is why sometimes I think nominating him is a no-brainer for Dems, and sometimes I wonder if it's t… @RetroNewsNow @Wendys experiment: What are we saying today if Biden had run and Hillary had stayed out?In fact, Hillary's post-'08 popularity burst is what gave rise to "Ready for Hillary" and the sense among Dem leade… worth remembering that Hillary once enjoyed a similar phenomenon: Her popularity suddenly took off as soon as… got none of the media scrutiny that comes with running, was spared being the constant focal point of attack from…’s his fav/unfav rating from Gallup over time. He starts to take off in '15 - outpouring of goodwill after fami… think my question about Biden is: To what degree is his supposed core political strength – the electability argum… he ran for president in the '90s, Pat Buchanan called his platform -- which included a southern border wall an… also had their two congressional leaders -- Pelosi and Harry Reid -- respond to a State of the Union addr…
Impossible to measure the precise impact on the Scott-Nelson race of the poorly-designed Broward County ballot, but… @BillVonderschm1 Next time give this a try
@ShaneGoldmacher Also still remember the uproar he caused when he tried to give out the number at the first Dem deb… @peterfeld Who was Clinton? @ShaneGoldmacher For the heck of it I just tried calling and I got an automated message offering me a chance to win a Caribbean weekendMainly what I remember from that fall is that this kind of talk came with some genuine uncertainty about how Americ… @SaysSimonson 2000 I think was a little more stark because Bush had a pretty consistent polling lead even as the el… @SaysSimonson Definitely lots of blue wall talk in 2012Hard to remember now, but in the run-up to the 2000 election, it was Democrats who were seen as more likely to bene…'s scorched earth campaign against Clinton - he went all the way to the convention and refused to endorse - le… Jerry Brown’s five-decade political career ending in hours, here’s a clip from one of its most volatile period… Biden first mulled entering a WH race in December 1983 (even signing an ‘84 NH primary filing form at the plead…
@jsende If Abrams had started talking about running after losing her race it might have been an interesting, if imperfect, test of thisA look at the blogging portion of Elizabeth Warren’s political origin story from @JRBoh
@gaspsiagore Thank you!
@drnoir33 Very flattered -- thank you! @drnoir33 Yes, absolutely. See: @truthontrump1 Was not meant to be comprehensive. For example, Dole's "mean" disposition, lack of smile, and age (7… @EsotericCD Thanks, Jeff!! @Danny_Funaro We will see as more female candidates emerge going forward. There is a risk here of reading too much… @MarisaKabas I don't know: Measuring Dem candidates against the ghost of past failures was a huge part of media cov… again, this is all about subjective perceptions and I'm not getting into whether it's right. But it's hard to…, to me “likability” is mainly a product of the rise of mass media, which put a new premium on public present… was a major theme in other campaigns too. The coverage of Michael Dukakis's lack of "likability" in 1988 even le… was polling that showed Bush significantly more “likable” than Gore, stories about how people would rather ha… am thinking in particular (but not exclusively) of the 2000 campaign, during which news coverage was frequently a… do think it’s worth remembering that perceptions of “likability,” as defined by the media/political world, have p…’ve wanted to say something about the “likability” conversation I’ve been seeing on here and it comes from spendin… Wallach notes, the Gingrich-led crusade over Wright's book deal is what's remembered, but Newt needed latitude f… from @PhilipWallach is very strong on something I tried to get at in my book: That for all Newt Gingrich did b… @Azi Thanks, Azi! Almost didn’t recognize it without the jacket!
November 1993: Belmont, MA venture capitalist Mitt Romney launches US Senate campaign in Massachusetts Moments ag… 2001: A 3-year battle between Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer comes to a head as House Democrats choose a new…
@akbarb480 Yeah, fair, a little, although I guess what I'm saying is he was still getting significant -- if not dec… if the idea is to be in position if Trump implodes and doesn’t run, then an aggressive posture toward Trump now……and against the criticizer – Flake effect. Plus, Trump’s support even in the ’16 primaries was not factional – lik… Romney is thinking '20, I could see him finding traction in a few places (NH even...) but also hitting a wall pr… @nick_field90 Bob Packwood (!) flirted with it. William Armstrong got mentioned. Also there was lots of speculation… there was much talk of a Reagan '84 primary challenge at the end of '82, as unemployment reached 10%, but his… of these presidents received serious primary challenges. GHWB, whose approval with R's in late '90 was boosted… rating with own party at end of 2nd year (Gallup): George W. Bush 97% Donald Trump 88% Barack Obama 85% G…
@PatrickRuffini Feeling the pressure - hope you like it!!
Starting with JFK in 1960, every MA Dem to run for president has at least won multiple primaries (JFK, Ted K, Dukak…’s clearly mindful of the imperative of making inroads with black voters, although in last week’s Suffolk/USA…
2018 governor of Arizona, Fife Symington, made almost exactly the same joke at a press conference after the "Phoenix… Jared Golden's ME-2 win officially certified by Gov. Paul LePage -- with an extra comment on the form: @wildstein I can't get enough of stories like these...
@DIRTYYYSOUTH @Patrickesque @bottyeo Jeez, well I don’t think he’s *that* bad... @ahammsportsgeek Glad you enjoyed! Happy new yearMoney can go a long way in politics, so Bloomberg is worth keeping an eye on. But he seems an unlikely match for th… by race of Dem/indie voters in USA Today/Suffolk poll on excitement level for various '20 contenders (+Hi… @mrjakesalinas Appreciate that!I’m still pretty amused by the Xmas gift I found for my uncle, who’s a lifelong fan of the Chicago/St. Louis/Phoeni… @JessicaLipper I hope you enjoy! @geoffreyvs Thanks for saying this - really great to hear you liked it!
@ktinboulder Just seeing this -- a belated Merry Christmas! @MaryKCaffrey It's really great to hear that you find it this useful -- thank you! @IMDINOCOSTA Appreciate that -- thank you! @JaredKotler I'd like to claim it's some kind of sophisticated metaphor for the world being turned upside down or s… @EdWohlford Merry Christmas!
@xenocryptsite 4/92 primary coverage: “His victory may be the Democratic Party’s worst nightmare and the best thing… @xenocryptsite the deal, Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn “would need two-thirds approval from the caucus to serve beyond 2020 — an…
After he was acquitted by the Senate in early '99, the prospect that Clinton would face prosecution upon leaving of…