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Assistant Professor of Finance, @Wharton. I study safe assets, banking , central bank policy- tools to prevent 2008. Trying to understand 2020 too now.

444 Following   587 Followers   616 Tweets

Joined Twitter 6/26/13

@prchovanec L’etat, c’est moi. @NathanTankus As someone who followed the “jump all the institutional hoops in the ivory tower” path, it’s incredib… @AletheiaCui PhD= permanent head damage
@arpitrage @OxfordFrom This is one of the few theories that doesn’t break down when trying to explain the existence… @eliowa I’m afraid this maybe means people who know they get a vaccine will stop distancing and cancel out much of… @arpitrage @OxfordFrom I guess the awkward point for theory is we tend to interpret PE as designed to solve agency/… @OxfordFrom @arpitrage With CLO’s the “issuer” (lead bank in loan syndicate ) allows single loans to trade and the… @alexvardoulakis What I find interesting is banks are the main buyers of the AAA tranche, but they are safe asset c… @JSEllenberg It seems like we’ve converged on a conversation where whatever your ideology, the truth itself isn’t s…
But in the most common securitization (CLOs) , the CLO buys assets that trade in a semi liquid market, suggesting t… theory has a very specific approach to understanding securitization: asymmetric information. We imagine an… @wwwojtekk @phl43 @RCAFDM @calebwatney @stucchio Just be glad they didn’t have to send their vaccine to econometrica for review!Outstanding news for international and macro-finance! @ModeledBehavior Star Trek TNG is the ideology/culture of a society that is capable of making massive progress. Wis… @jbarro For covid and financial crises, this show up early mentality is exactly how to solve the problem . @NathanTankus As usual we got the joke Monty Python version of the Spanish Inquisition trying to torture us with a… @JacobAShell Something they had that we are sorely lacking. @Crystal_cv512hg @mpp75214 @clairlemon Your subtweeting is subtle when people think it’s unintentional. :) @mpp75214 @clairlemon (For individual small groups this doesn’t hold. But there is a strong positive correlation… @mpp75214 @clairlemon Absolutely not- my argument is you can tell pretty well this procedure was followed when the… @damienmgrant Yeah I still haven’t decided what I think of the new super interventionist central bank. It’s as if p… @damienmgrant Although she’s a professor too now, my sister was once a terrifyingly strong rugby player. The first… @damienmgrant My favorite (not American ) example of this is how Mongolians have completely dominated Japanese Sumo… @mpp75214 @clairlemon Yes- not because Americans are dumb, but because there is talent everywhere. A profession wit… @DougHenwood If I look at who writes the most influential papers in my field and who gets the best grades in my cla… @MacroPru @prchovanec I really miss being able to say “South Korea was well prepared so they had a head start, but… @clairlemon You can tell how serious a profession or field of inquiry is by how few Americans are in it.
@besttrousers Synthesis- very little government debt, but it’s all held by the fed so overnight reserves issued to… @Vermeullarmine How long until we can expect a weekly Mencius Moldbug column at the Wall Street Journal? (Online o… @benlandautaylor @SamoBurja The reliance on that social science research program may in fact be one of the things t…
@prchovanec America's problems are more 1980s soviet union than 1920s soviet union (old system, extremely hard to r… @causalinf Just don’t do these calculations about marriage vows right after a wedding! @michaelmina_lab Everything liberals say about why abstinence only sex Ed is a bad idea applies almost exactly.
@EmanuelDerman @ejenk @quantian1 The role of us academics is to tell you why you can’t do it the poor man’s way in… @Vermeullarmine The Abbasid Caliph not paying tribute to the Mongols probably gets the number one spot in all of history. @BaldingsWorld The governor felt bad being the only hypocrite so he made it mandatory for everyone else too.
@dougludlow @kittypurrzog Jesse needs a safe space away from you much more than the other way around!! @jeanqasaur @lilmissbuckets I’d guess a broad cross section of bored internet trolls to people at the very top of t… @lilmissbuckets @jeanqasaur In Econ/finance we have where people gossip about precisely the… @Austen 1/(price earnings ratio) . PE of 20 —> 5 percent (real) return .
@NathanTankus If shell games could keep our troops at war, don't see why Powell can't pull something like @rivatez Let them quarantine in the French Laundry!
@SeanGailmard Thanks! Will give a careful read. @Trinhnomics This is very much “the people’s flag is palest pink, it’s not as red as you might think” as a playlist. @Trinhnomics Now that he’s out of office I wish he would mess with people’s neuroses about him by listing the inte…
@Vermeullarmine To me the shocking part is she’s an associate prof at the Berkeley English dept! This is not some random nobody. @CardiffGarcia I would LOVE to see the four hour long Obama Joe Rogan experience. @ModeledBehavior I guess the plan is to persuade Mitch McConnell with something Augustus Caesar style?…
@ModeledBehavior If it’s rigged or if Putin propagandized the “deplorable” to vote against me, don’t have to take t… @BaldingsWorld Her line “Anything would be better than Mobutu” followed by the bloodiest post WWII war and still a… @SamoBurja 1980s Soviet Union still acceptable? I’ve compared our gerontocracy to the Brezhnev era. @Nicolas29502027 Suppose your utility is a CES aggregate of a continuum of goods and add a constraint that a subset… @Peter_Turchin And the top two Sumo wrestlers of all time both Mongol: @LHerrenbrueck @_Semih_Uslu_ @momin_rayhan . Perhaps some useful moments for calibration purposes also . @LHerrenbrueck @_Semih_Uslu_ @momin_rayhan Koijen and Gormsen’s evidence on dividend strip prices is consistent wit… @causalinf Something something qualifying exams Ricardian equivalence. @HannoLustig @chrisedmond @mlanetrain @SHamiltonian If we were a liberal democracy in the Korean War or when the na… @HannoLustig @chrisedmond @mlanetrain @SHamiltonian Some of Asia is democratic some of it is not. Both categories b… @HannoLustig @chrisedmond @mlanetrain @SHamiltonian Vietnamese methods have a lot to say for them (and no easy geog…
@dandolfa @mariaelenaguer A few more years of divided government and that name may become a less obscure reference! @mariaelenaguer Peruvian-Japanese food is the best argument ever for open societies.How to lose your central bank independence in 3 easy steps. @SHamiltonian @causalinf In America we never give up- we just declare victory! @arpitrage The private market solution to climate change - just make sure your agricultural yields are hedged against it . @wwwojtekk Seems the IRA won decisively using the long march through the institutions tactic. @momin_rayhan If it’s anticipated then yes (asset prices rise when we learn the lockdown will end and fall on impac… from the civilized world... prediction of consumption based asset pricing: When we finally open back up and the available cons… @ModeledBehavior @JacksonHBrown @arpitrage I always take this and flip it on its head to say: any academic field th… @spydar71 @Peter_Turchin We seem to be drastically short of Cicero and Cæsar quality politicians
@teasri I’m sure some member of the state department got promoted for “real world impact” when they suggested we ar… @Max_Fisher Yes, Minister! :) @M_C_Klein The Trichet Ireland letter is perhaps the most evil thing ever done by a central banker- “implement my p… @prchovanec We finally see the real world consequences of listening to doctors who are trained primarily to memoriz…
@arpitrage @dthesmar ... And then we are on to Marx's big think the "tendency of the rate of profit to decline." wh… @arpitrage @dthesmar One of the best inaccurate marketing campaigns of all time. Buy the book for the American ex… @DandiaAsad The EU will have a law requiring everyone to pray multiple times a day while facing Brussels soon enough I’m sure. :) @jessesingal This strange penchant you have of recognizing problems without always going apeshit about them is why… looking paper. The modern printing press breaking faith in institutions just like Martin Luther and company… @MarketPowerYT @causalinf When rainfall isn’t powerful enough, upgrade to the full thunderstorm for shocking identification!! @dandolfa Looks great! Will give this a read soon. @dandolfa I guess to me “monetary transmission” means rates set by the fed impact rates people pay in the broader e… @dandolfa Interest bearing electronic money (perhaps partially in crypto form) would be incredible for strengthenin… @AlexBartik @arpitrage If there was time to develop new business models, feels like this bundle could even be priva… @arpitrage I'd add poor attempts to maintain credibility from public health experts (lieing about masks, sharply di… @arpitrage Apparently no American politician knows what centralized quarantine is yet. "Free hotel room to keep yo…
@SeanGailmard This was a big part of the idea of the concert of Europe? Prevent both war and domestic regime change... @LeoAparisidL I guess I reacted strongly though mostly to see the nyt openly being in favor of throwing out the lef… @LeoAparisidL I do think there is a lot to the commodity prices story. Evo I think built up massive forex reserves… a bit more sharply than me , but as far as I can tell not inaccurate. run down: Evo changed the constitution to run for a third term (illiberal, sure). After claims of voter fraud… is just as or more offensively anti-democratic than anything being said in US domestic politics. Evo both won…
@toniwhited An excellent (simulated) moment for our profession! @florianederer Someone who becomes a top 5 editor and bans second round R&R's will get all the market share.Excited to see this in print!
Retweeted by Will Diamond @BrankoMilan I have a hard time seeing the dismantling of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires bei… @GeorgeSelgin The fed could just make a statement they given how much de jure power it has, it will start implement…
@MacroPru 2035: “Mom, what’s a safe asset?” @arpitrage If anybody who really means business about subverting up our institutions comes along, its going to be "the boy who cried wolf".